Markets

(New York)

One of the biggest banks on Wall Street has just made a bold call on gold. Citi says that the precious metal is likely to shoot to $2,000 or more within the next 24 months. The bank argues that a dovish cutting cycle by the Fed will be a catalyst for price gains, which will be supported by a weakening economy and worries over the trade war. According to Citi, “We expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer . . . posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next year or two”. Standard Chartered, another big bank, also made the interesting comment that “It does seem that gold’s status within the portfolio has been reignited”.


FINSUM: The most interesting comment here is about gold’s role in a portfolio. For many years it seemed that investors had forgotten about gold’s role in diversification, but it finally seems to have made a comeback.

(New York)

If you look at some of the areas hardest hit by fears over the economy and the trade war, there is cautious optimism starting to show up. One of the best examples of this is the corporate bond market. Investors have been pulling money from the stock market and sticking it in bonds. They appear to be unworried about high debt levels or the possibility of default. In this move, there is an underlying faith that the US economy will stay solid, otherwise credit-worthiness would be seriously in question. Spreads to Treasuries are very low too, further reflecting the optimism.


FINSUM: It seems like the market is worried that stock valuations are tapped out, but that there may not be a significant downturn. In such a case, corporate bonds look like a good bet.

(New York)

A big bank has just come out very bullish on gold. BNP Paribas says gold is going to shoot to over $1,600 per ounce in the medium-term as the Fed embarks on four 25 bp interest rate cuts between now and June 2020. According to BNP Paribas, as headline yields fall with each cut “real rates will move and stay in negative territory, raising the appeal of holding gold”. The ongoing, and seemingly endless trade war, will also be bullish to gold.


FINSUM: This argument makes perfect sense to us, though it is highly contingent upon the Fed cutting and the trade war continuing. In our view, both of these are likely, so this appears like a good buy.

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