It is getting to be the time of year when everyone is trying to predict next year’s election. A lot of polls show Trump is trailing, which has given Democrats hope and some comfort. However, a new chart published by Goldman Sachs offers a different view. The bank analyzed historical approval ratings against economic data heading into elections and found that when the economy is healthy, that factor outweighs approval rating. Goldman concluded that should the economy stay on decent footing, Trump has a clear path to victory.
FINSUM: This makes a lot of sense to us and we think it offers a more realistic picture than more minutely-focused opinion polls.
A US District Judge is allowing a lawsuit from Democrats against President Trump to proceed. The lawsuit is from Congressional Democrats and the green light they have received will allow them to begin collecting records from businesses owned by the president. The judge denied a request by the DOJ to pause the case in order for it to be reviewed by a higher court. “This case should have been dismissed. It presents important questions that warrant immediate appellate review and is another impractical attempt to disrupt and distract the president from his official duties”, said the DOJ. The department will now try a long-shot emergency plea to an appeals court in Washington.
FINSUM: This did not get covered much in the media, but it is an important development as this will bring the Democrats closer to getting all the records they want. The fight is escalating.
Given the relative dearth of information about the new DOL and SEC rules, analysis and true insight are hard to come by. However, today we have some interesting and relevant “talk” coming out of those close to the DOL. Evidently Trump’s chief of staff Mick Mulvaney has de facto taken over the rulemaking processes at the DOL. The Trump administration was apparently unhappy with slow progress at the agency, so Mulvaney was put in charge of oversight and has ultimate say on all decisions. Mulvaney took over his chief of staff position in January and took on this role some time since. What this means is that the White House is now more directly in charge of the DOL than ever.
FINSUM: The rumor of this is from Financial Advisor IQ (which is quite reputable), and it completely makes sense given that the DOL suddenly came out with a concrete timeline for the new rule’s release (December). This seems encouraging for those that opposed the initial rule.
The panic over Trump’s blacklisting of Huawei was reaching a fever pitch. The fall out had gotten so bad that it looks like the President decided to take a step back. Trump has now granted a three-month reprieve on the blacklist to give companies time to adjust. The stay is not a cancellation of the decision, just a window for adjustment. Huawei says it “doesn’t mean much”.
FINSUM: This is smarter than a sudden blanket ban as it will give a little adjustment period which may make it a bit easier for companies and markets to digest.
President Trump warned yesterday that he hoped the US could avoid a war with Iran. Some of the president’s advisers are more hawkish on Iran that Trump himself. Tensions are rising sharply and Trump is reportedly quite against going to war with the middle eastern state. The White House has been warning about increased threats from Iran, but few details have yet been shred, even with Congress, so for now the specifics are unclear.
FINSUM: Since the details of the threat are not at all known, it is hard to make an opinion on a course of action.