Displaying items by tag: Trump
Former President Donald Trump wasn’t quiet about his opposition to traditional media outlets and big tech, and in an attempt to solidify that stance he tried to form his own SPAC. However, Biden’s regulatory watchdog and SEC chairman Gary Gensler may be cracking down on the newly forming SPAC. Trump’s SPAC is being backed by some Chinese investors who are drawing the regulator’s eyes. Additionally, Gensler has made it known his opposition to SPAC’s as a financial vehicle regardless. The SEC will be doing more research into Trump’s SPAC and it will face an uphill battle to get approval.
FINSUM: In a wider setting SPACs are still an interesting alternative, but Trump’s history and investors make this particular SPAC riskier.
In what comes as a surprise to the entire industry, President Biden’s administration has just let the Trump-era version...View the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
In what comes as a surprise to the entire industry, President Biden’s administration has just let the Trump-era version of the Fiduciary Rule go into effect. Almost everyone in wealth management thought Biden would surely use his administrations powers to stop the rule’s enactment, but they elected to let it go into effect as of this Tuesday, accompanying the announcement with positive and supportive language. The industry’s reaction was immediate and positive, while consumer advocates were disappointed as they were hoping for a more stringent rule from the Democratic administration.
FINSUM: Frankly, we take this as an incredibly positive sign for the wealth management business. This is a big signal to us that the Biden administration is not going to be as onerous and impractical on the regulatory front as many might have feared.
Polls have Biden well ahead of President Trump at the moment. In fact, some pollsters say that Biden is further ahead leading up to election day than any candidate in the last 20 years. Markets have somewhat followed this and are clearly anticipating a Biden victory. That said, there is almost nobody who doesn’t think the race will be very close. So, how to play it if Trump surprises the markets and wins? Three sectors seem like they would benefit most strongly: traditional energy companies, defense companies, and large-cap banks. Trump’s light-touch regulatory approach would help energy companies and large banks, while defense spending would probably continue to rise under Trump.
FINSUM: Most agree that if Trump surprises, the market is not going to shoot higher like it did in 2016, primarily because there is not a big proposed tax cut.
The market has been increasingly betting that Biden is going to win the election, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty. The outcomes seem like almost diametrically opposed routes for the country, and accordingly it feels like many asset classes could head in opposite directions depending on the outcome. With that in mind, Savvas Savouri of ToscaFund Asset Management, has published a very interesting and clear diagram explaining how each asset class will react to either a Trump or Biden win (see above). The most interesting thing about this is how similar the response will be across several asset classes. For example, no matter who wins, it appears likely that commodities, gold, US domestic staples, and exporters will gain, while in either scenario, Treasuries, REITs, and the Dollar will lose.
FINSUM: This is an excellent diagram that gives a concise view on how things may change following either a Biden or Trump victory. Two things jump out to us here. Firstly, that tech shares look likely to lose if there is a blue wave; and secondly, that the Dollar is headed down in either outcome, so exporters are likely to do well. It is easy to imagine that a blue wave would result in a broad rally of the S&P 500 that is not led by tech.