So one thing is very obvious about Trump’s tweets—they can move markets. However, what is less well-known is that their frequency also has an effect on indexes. So how do markets fare on days when Trump is hammering out tweet after tweet versus days when he only pens a few? The answer is that more is worse. On days where Trump write 35 tweets or more there is a 9 basis point drag on markets versus days where he tweets 5 times or less, where there is a 5 basis point tailwind.
FINSUM: There is not much one can do with this info, but it is an interesting data point. How long before a new “smart beta” product comes out focused on this? Haha.
Whichever side of the political aisle you are on, the new polls coming out about the 2020 presidential election look misleading. A new Gallup poll released this week showed that Biden has a 54% to 38% lead over Trump. Furthermore, the poll found that any of the 5 top Democratic contenders would beat Trump in the election were they to win the bid. Additionally, 37% of voters reported that they felt the economy was worsening versus 31% who said it was improving, the first time recently that Americans have been pessimistic about the economic outlook.
FINSUM: The polls don’t seem to be doing justice to how close this election feels. They just don’t reconcile for us. That said, the numbers on economic sentiment are quite interesting.
President Trump threw out an idea for a tax cut this week, then immediately backtracked by calling it unnecessary. The idea, however, appears sound. Trump proposed a payroll tax cut that would primarily help middle and lower class workers (in addition to a capital gains tax cut via indexing to inflation). That would make a lot of sense right now, as it would increase the spending power of the masses, increasing consumption and inflation, and lowering un-utilized manufacturing capacity.
FINSUM: We really like this idea of a payroll tax cut because it would help reverse some of the adverse affects of the wealth inequality that has built up since the Crisis. The more capital is concentrated in a small pool the less of it gets spent (i.e. a single person can only spend so much), which slows the economy. If you increase the spending power of the majority of Americans a lot more will get spent, boosting the economy.
It has been a bad week for President Trump and his reelection chances appear to have taken a hit, argues Bloomberg. The reason is that the events of the last week have hurt him in three key areas: suburban voters, rural voters, and industrial states. The massacres of the last week, and Trump’s reluctance to push tougher gun laws, will likely harm him in critical suburban areas, where Democrats have been taking votes. Additionally, on the trade war front, both rural voters and industrial states are likely to be upset at recent developments, which could wound the President further.
FINSUM: We think polls still aren’t doing justice to Trump’s chances, but we have to agree that the last week has not done him any favors.
The market is going through a fit, and it is entirely self-induced. Firstly, the Fed hit markets with an unexpected lack of dovishness earlier this week. Then, just a day after, President Trump did what many feared he would—he announced another large round of tariff hikes on $300 bn of Chinese goods. Many suspect the move is part of an effort to push the Fed into cutting rates after it downgraded its language to calling the trade war merely a “simmer”. Markets fell sharply on the news.
FINSUM: Trump is trying to push both China and the Fed. It will likely work with the former, as they don’t have much of a choice if the economy looks vulnerable, but this is certainly not going to help China get back to the table.