Displaying items by tag: Trump
Will the US and China make a substantial trade deal? That is a trillion Dollar question for markets. Some argue that China may defer doing any deal and take the risk that Trump does not win the election, effectively letting the clock run out. However, an astute view is that China might be desperate to do deal while Trump is still in office. The reason why is that if Trump were to lose to a Democrat, who in all likelihood would be a more conventional US president that takes a much friendlier approach with international allies, then China would be in a very compromised position. A Democratic president would likely approach the Chinese trade deal with a much more united front of trade allies, which would be a worst case scenario for Beijing.
FINSUM: The irony of this is that Trump has been by far the hardest president on China in memory, but at the same time, the Chinese have the best chance at a good resolution by dealing with him.
The White House is considering a new plan to cut capital gains taxes. The administration is seeking to do so by indexing capital gains rates to inflation, a move that would significantly help wealthier Americans lower their tax bills. Interestingly, the White House is considering advancing the bill in such a way as to bypass Congress. The impetus for doing so is that they want to make sure the changes hit before the 2020 election.
FINSUM: This is quite logical and could have a big impact. Imagine you could exclude 2% of an annualized 8% gain from all capital gains taxes!
It is getting to be the time of year when everyone is trying to predict next year’s election. A lot of polls show Trump is trailing, which has given Democrats hope and some comfort. However, a new chart published by Goldman Sachs offers a different view. The bank analyzed historical approval ratings against economic data heading into elections and found that when the economy is healthy, that factor outweighs approval rating. Goldman concluded that should the economy stay on decent footing, Trump has a clear path to victory.
FINSUM: This makes a lot of sense to us and we think it offers a more realistic picture than more minutely-focused opinion polls.
A US District Judge is allowing a lawsuit from Democrats against President Trump to proceed. The lawsuit is from Congressional Democrats and the green light they have received will allow them to begin collecting records from businesses owned by the president. The judge denied a request by the DOJ to pause the case in order for it to be reviewed by a higher court. “This case should have been dismissed. It presents important questions that warrant immediate appellate review and is another impractical attempt to disrupt and distract the president from his official duties”, said the DOJ. The department will now try a long-shot emergency plea to an appeals court in Washington.
FINSUM: This did not get covered much in the media, but it is an important development as this will bring the Democrats closer to getting all the records they want. The fight is escalating.
Given the relative dearth of information about the new DOL and SEC rules, analysis and true insight are hard to come by. However, today we have some interesting and relevant “talk” coming out of those close to the DOL. Evidently Trump’s chief of staff Mick Mulvaney has de facto taken over the rulemaking processes at the DOL. The Trump administration was apparently unhappy with slow progress at the agency, so Mulvaney was put in charge of oversight and has ultimate say on all decisions. Mulvaney took over his chief of staff position in January and took on this role some time since. What this means is that the White House is now more directly in charge of the DOL than ever.
FINSUM: The rumor of this is from Financial Advisor IQ (which is quite reputable), and it completely makes sense given that the DOL suddenly came out with a concrete timeline for the new rule’s release (December). This seems encouraging for those that opposed the initial rule.