It’s an interesting time for fixed income given the recent rally and optimism around inflation falling enough to cause a change in Fed policy. In conversations with clients, Nicholas Bragdon, Lord Abbet’s Associate Investment Strategist, discussed some common themes that are emerging. 

The first is that many clients report feeling satisfied with earning 5% returns in deposits and have no desire to make a change. While returns on cash are the highest in decades, the same is true across the fixed income universe even in short-duration assets like short-term corporate debt. Historical data also shows that being overweight in cash leads to long-term underperformance while also leading to reinvestment risk in the event that the Fed does start cutting rates. 

Another common concern among clients is that they believe they will have sufficient time to make changes to their portfolio if the Fed does start cutting rates. However, history shows that it’s quite difficult to time these changes in rate policy. 

In fact, last year at this time, the consensus was for the economy to fall into a recession in the second-half of the year, leading the Fed to start cutting rates. In reality, markets are too efficient and will have already priced in a bulk of gains by the time the Fed actually starts easing. Thus, investors should consider moving from cash or short-duration fixed income into intermediate or longer-duration to take advantage of the changing environment.

Finsum: Fixed income markets are at an interesting place, following a strong rally to end the year amid anticipation of a change in monetary policy. Here are some common client concerns.