Eq: Large Cap
(Washington)
Amazon has been in President Trump’s crosshairs since the election, but the president has recently upped his rhetoric about bringing regulation to the company and the tech industry. The push has spooked stock markets. However, news is out that Amazon is making a push of its own. The retailer is building a huge army of lobbyists in Washington to combat the rising risk of regulation. Since Trump’s election, the company has doubled its staff of in-house lobbyists to 28, giving it more than double Google’s manpower.
FINSUM: The rumors coming out of the White House—that this is all just rhetoric—seems encouraging (if you are an investor). However, Amazon seems to be taking the risk seriously, which it should.
(Washington)
The market is increasingly worried about a big regulatory push against the tech industry. Amazon, along with Facebook, are dead center in the bullseye of the push. However, Bloomberg tells investors not to be too worried. The reason why is that according to five sources inside the White House, there are no active discussions or planning about any regulation that would impact the ecommerce retailer. Even in the case of the Post Office, which Trump has focused on, rates are set by a commission, and the organization is legally barred from charging any shipper less than its cost of delivery, meaning Amazon can’t be underpaying.
FINSUM: This is quite relieving if you are an Amazon investor. However, beyond any immediate threats, we do agree that the government is going to have to reconsider anti-trust regulation in light of how data is being used an abused by large tech companies.
(New York)
Goldman Sachs has been pushing into a lot of new business lines over the last few years—consumer lending being the principal one, as well as further into wealth management. However, the company is in the midst of launching yet another—business banking. The bank is working on a suite of tools for large businesses to use, such as deposit accounts, cash management tools etc. The move is seen by some as an odd one, as such services are dominated by huge-balance sheet integrated banks, such as JP Morgan and Citi.
FINSUM: This could become a good business, but it is not clear that Goldman has any strategic advantage to gain market share.
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(San Francisco)
Tech has been doing very poorly lately. Between the heat on Facebook and the growing threat of regulation to Amazon and other big tech companies, things look bleak. However, they may not be as bad as they seem. The reason why is two-fold. Firstly, many experts think any tech regulation won’t be hugely disruptive to the industry. Secondly, the underlying businesses look strong and the worries about regulation have not really dented earnings expectations. All of this leads many to believe that the whole selloff is overdone and things will blow over.
FINSUM: We can’t see any major tech regulations coming out that would really dent the industry, so all else equal, we do think the selloff might be overdone.
(New York)
Barron’s put out a very troubling article today. The piece contends that even great earnings are not going to save the current market rout. The reason why is two part. Firstly, worries about the broader economy, and things like regulation of tech, are overwhelming the influence of strong earnings. But secondly, markets have seen these good earnings coming for a year, and have already priced them in. Therefore, strong numbers’ influence on investors is weak. In fact, the good earnings are more of a risk than a boost at the moment, as any underperformance could cause a big bout of selling.
FINSUM: This makes perfect sense to us. Everyone has seen these earnings coming from a mile away and has been betting on them for a year. They definitely have more risk than upside right now.
(New York)
Despite the recent falls in the market, stocks still look quite expensive, and are, historically speaking. With that in mind, many investors may be looking for stocks with a strong value proposition. Barron’s has put out a piece choosing three: General Mills, Tractor Supply, and UPS. In the case of General Mills, the panic over grocery wars and pre-packaged food looks overdone, and the company is actually performing well in a number of areas. Tractor Supply has done very well historically, but its growth rate has slowed recently, but this may because of two mild winters, and not a sign of trouble to come. UPS has declined because of an announcement of increased capital spending, but given the health of the underlying business, it seems too cheap to pass up, says Barron’s.
FINSUM: These seem like very knowledgeable picks. We particularly like UPS, which is trading at a historically low P/E ratio right now.