(New York)

The public and the media are flabbergasted at how the US stock market has seemed to defy everything we are seeing in “real life”. As of Friday, however, things started to make a little more sense because of good job numbers. Given the general disconnect between markets and the economy, it is important to take a step back and digest what markets really seem to be saying. In our view, the message is clear: not only is the economy going to bounce back, but a year from now, things are going to be better than they were before COVID.

FINSUM: The markets are making a very bold call and essentially pricing for perfection. However, it might not be that unrealistic. If the Fed and the government remain very accommodative, it is not outside the realm of possibility that by the end of June 2021, the economy is larger and potentially healthier than in Feb 2020.

(Washington)

It has been long in the works. So long, in fact, that many seem to have forgotten about it. Yet here it is—a new fiduciary rule from the DOL, almost three years after the last one was vacated. The new version of the rule has just been delivered to the White House for review by the Office of Management and Budget. This starts a multi-month process that may lead to its implementation, but given how late the rule is arriving it may not get enacted before Trump could potentially leave office. If Trump wins the election, the timing is irrelevant, but if he loses and the rule has been in place less than 60 days when the new president takes over, it can very easily be reversed.

FINSUM: We have not yet seen a good summary of the contents of this rule, but will be covering it as soon as possible. The only thing we have heard is that the new rule is “is primarily a prohibited transaction exemption intended to replace the Best Interest Contract Exemption”.

(Washington)

Friday saw the release of what appeared to be absolutely stellar jobs numbers. Instead of the jobless rate potentially hitting almost 20%—which was the forecast—the opposite happened: the unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in May from over 14% in April. Markets soared. However, the reality is that those numbers are both highly inflated, and unrealistic. Firstly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics counted those who are currently furloughed and unpaid as “employed”. It admitted that if it hadn’t done so the unemployment rate would have jumped to over 16%. Secondly, the big jump in hiring was at least partly, and probably hugely, because of an artificial government rule in the PPP program. Small businesses had to hire employees back by the end of June to have their loans turn into grants, so there were artificial incentives to put people back on payroll even I the absence of true business demand.

FINSUM: If you take these two facts together, it becomes clear that the May data is not really a reflection of an economic pickup, so don’t make any predictions based on this.

(New York)

It has been a long, long, time since value stocks really had a shining moment. Growth has been outperforming value for over a decade now. However, strategists at JP Morgan say that value stocks may start to shine very soon. This underlying parts of this economy—weaker but still improving—are the exact conditions where value stocks traditionally shine. These pre-requisites for success seem likely to stay in place. There does not appear to be a second wave of infections brewing, there is ample government support for the economy, and economic data is trending more positively than negatively.

FINSUM: The typical rotation into value (such as in 2008-2009) takes over 100 days and has 18% upside. The logic here is sound, but we still wonder if value will outperform growth.

(Washington)

A whole squad of industry players are trying to stop the SEC’s new Reg BI in its tracks. From individual firms (like Michael Kitces’) to trade groups, many are filing lawsuits to stop the implementation of Reg BI. One of the critical arguments seems to be that the new Reg BI does not sufficiently protect investors under the rules of the Dodd-Frank Act. One principal at XY Planning Network says, simply, “Reg BI makes it more difficult for customers to differentiate between financial planners who are bound by fiduciary obligations and for broker-dealers who may consider their own financial interests”.

FINSUM: Both broker-dealers and RIAs are against this rule. For the former, it complicates life, and for the latter, it muddles some of their “fiduciary” thunder. Nonetheless, it seems the rule is likely to implemented on schedule.