(New York)

The long sought V-shaped recovery has been like a white elephant for investors. It has been hoped for since March when the economy started to shrink, but in the last couple months, most let go of the hope as the depth of the downturn became clear. However, given recent economic data, there are growing odds that the economy might vault out of its recession like a rocket ship. Morgan Stanley says it won’t be long until investors completely buy into that narrative. MS thinks in the next six months investors will go from “doubting to believing” in the v-shaped recovery, and that by the end of the year risk assets will be in a “mid-stage bull market mind-set”.

FINSUM: This is highly speculative, but it is a clear un-muddled position. We suspect the recovery is going to be slower than v-shaped, so our expectations are not nearly so bullish.

(New York)

We have been saying this for months now, but Wall Street is also coming around to the idea: the COVID lockdown was ultimately going to be very bullish for ecommerce and the social media companies with which they are inextricably linked. According to Wedbush, the COVID lockdown has permanently changed shopping habits, and ecommerce’s share of total retail sales will maintain the big jump it saw over the last few months. With that in mind, here are six stocks to consider: Wix.com, GoDaddy, Shopify, eBay, Etsy, and Pinterest.

FINSUM: Just like work habits, people’s buying habits have changed, and they are likely to stay that way. That is a big victory for retailers who were winning the ecommerce race, those who support ecommerce (e.g. Shopify), and social media companies who benefit from increased advertising.

(Washington)

For the last several months, brokerage firms have been preparing for the implementation of the SEC’s Reg BI, which comes into effect next Tuesday (June 30th). The driving force behind the rule has been the SEC’s current chief, Jay Clayton. However, those paying attention will have seen that the whole Reg BI project was throw in doubt this week as President Trump has just nominated Clayton to be the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York. Clayton is apparently interested in the role. This raises serious questions about how seriously the rule will be enforced as the entire rule was basically Clayton’s project. According to Phyllis Borzi, who formerly headed the DOL, “It matters in the sense that this [Reg BI] was his baby, he was determined to push it through…”, its “effectiveness” she said “will rise and fall on how well it’s enforced because the rule itself leaves a lot of ambiguity, so it will be critical how it’s implemented”.

FINSUM: If Clayton leaves, it will create a major void for the rule, including, its enforcement, changes, and focus.

(New York)

Covered calls are an old investing methodology, but one that does not get much attention. That said, employing covered calls can be a great income strategy. So what is a covered call? Simply put, it is the process of selling call options while simultaneously holding the underlying shares. The idea is to earn income from selling the call options, while hedging risk by holding the underlying shares. The ideal outcome is that the underlying share price rises but does not hit its strike price, yielding the seller both the income from selling the option and the capital appreciation of the shares.

FINSUM: In markets with big momentum this is not a great strategy, but in back and forth ones like those at present, it can be very effective for increasing income. There are a number of funds that also employ this strategy so you don’t have to do it manually.

(Washington)

Markets are having a tough time right now on news of surging cases across many parts of the US. In what has become a typical cycle, optimism on the recovery is being tempered by media reports of surging COVID cases in several states. The markets seem to be unusually wounded this morning, and the reason might be comments from Coronavirus Task Force chief Anthony Fauci. Speaking about the rise in cases, he called it a “disturbing surge” and warned congress that the virus was not under control.

FINSUM: The rise in cases in Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona has been alarming, especially in the last week, so markets are starting to worry about the potential for new lockdowns.