Monday, 12 March 2018 10:33

The Strong Economy is a Poor Predictor for Stocks

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(New York)

Many who are worried about the future of the stock market take solace in the fact that the US economy looks strong. If the economy is doing so well, the market is less likely to fall, or so the logic goes. However, looking at history, that understanding is unwarranted, as stocks lag well in advance of economic downturns. In fact, the market usually tops out well before any economic downturn begins, and by the time a recession actually starts, stocks will have long since been in a bear market.

FINSUM: This is an excellent point. Just as the current bull market started during the fallout of the Financial Crisis, the bear market will probably start when the economy looks like it is in full swing.

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