Displaying items by tag: bear market
Market Downturn to Accelerate Shift to Model Portfolios
After a tough year for the markets, asset managers are bracing for cost-cutting in 2023. Revenues were down across the industry last year as falling markets hit both management and performance fees. In the U.S., total assets in mutual funds and ETFs dropped 17 percent between the start of 2022 and the end of October, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. This will force asset managers to cut costs and make tough decisions this year about how to grow. Some asset managers are predicting that the downturn will accelerate the shift by clients from mutual funds and brokerage accounts to other ways of investing, such as ETFs, separately managed accounts, and model portfolios. Martin Small, head of BlackRock’s US wealth advisory business and the firm’s incoming chief financial officer, told Financial Times, “Whenever there are super shocks in the market, people make big changes to their portfolios. This is when people do deferred maintenance. In U.S. retail markets, there is a move from brokerage accounts to fee-based advisory, which means more model portfolios and more ETFs.”
Finsum:After a tough year in the markets, some asset managers are predicting a shift towards model portfolios, ETFs, and SMAs for clients.
Amid Inflation and Volatility, Financial Confidence is Down
According to a new report by Edelman Financial Engines, inflation, recessionary fears, and geopolitical uncertainty are undermining financial confidence. The report found that just 23% of more than 2,000 adults that were polled earlier this fall felt “very comfortable” about their finances and only 12% consider themselves wealthy. Even high-net-worth investors are concerned about their finances. Only 44% of millionaires feel “very comfortable” about their finances, with only 29% feeling wealthy. Jason Van de Loo, head of wealth planning and marketing at Edelman Financial Engines, had this to say about the results, “Becoming a millionaire was always the pinnacle of financial success. But at a time when inflation and stress levels are up, and markets and portfolios are down, very few Americans actually feel wealthy.” Edelman Financial Engines also found that most adults feel less financially secure than they would have hoped at this stage in their life. The results match similar responses from other surveys. A separate report by Bank of America found that 71% of workers feel their pay isn’t keeping up with the rising cost of living which brings the number of people who feel financially secure to a five-year low.
Finsum:A poll conducted by Edelman Financial Engines revealed that Americans are less confident about their finances due to inflation and recessionary concerns.
Quantitative Tightening Adding to Volatility
Yields on developed market government bonds have been soaring this year, as a result of higher inflation, sharp rate hikes, and quantitative tightening. The latter of which is what has traders nervous right now. The Federal Reserve is looking to increase the pace of winding down its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, while the European Central Bank has also been looking to shrink its €5 trillion bond portfolio. Central banks built up their balance sheets with bond purchases to help provide a stimulus for the economy, but with the current high inflation, banks are now looking to sell those bonds. With the bond market already facing pressure due to the rate hikes, further quantitative tightening could make trading even more difficult by worsening liquidity and increasing volatility. The Bank of England has already been forced to delay its quantitative tightening due to turmoil in the UK bond market. That turmoil, which also spread to the U.S. and European bond markets, has only added to the liquidity and volatility concerns.
Finsum:An increase in Quantitative Tightening by central banks could lead to more volatility in the bond markets.
Advisors Are Increasingly Turning to Alternatives
According to a recent survey by Broadridge Financial Solutions, 67% of financial advisers are using alternative investments such as real estate investment trusts and private funds, compared to 59% in a previous survey taken earlier in the year. Of the 400 advisors surveyed by Broadridge, more than half said they plan to increase the use of alternatives over the next two years over traditional assets such as stocks and bonds. However, the advisers also noted their disappointment in the available offerings, with just 27% saying they are very satisfied with the options available from asset managers. Among the issues leading to this disappointment are too few choices, too much paperwork, and compliance and regulatory concerns. As per the reason for the increased interest in alternatives, advisers cited diversification, followed by non-correlation with equities. According to the survey, the alternatives that advisors were most interested in were REITs, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, and private debt.
Finsum: With investors concerned over steep portfolio losses, advisors are showing an increased interest in alternatives such as REITs, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, and private debt.
Musk Fires Off at Tesla Shorters
Hedge funds have made it clear they are gonna short those not meeting ESG criteria, but the broader market is still willing to short Tesla because the bottom line means more. Despite all of its sustainability credentials investors are making bets against Tesla. Bill Gates took a big short position apparently, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk chirped back on Twitter, saying it's incompatible with their environmental concerns. All of this happens as Musk secured $44 billion to buy Twitter Inc. This isn't the first time Tesla is no stranger to short-sellers as sharks swarmed the brand for years as they thought they couldn't ramp up production to meet the actual demand. Tesla’s stock skyrocketed nonetheless.
Finsum: Short positions on these public favorites can be extremely risky poisons, there have been lots of strange rallies in the internet era.