Displaying items by tag: bear market

Renewable energy stocks, once at peak valuations in 2020-21, are struggling with investor pullbacks and face extended uncertainty partly due to U.S. election concerns. Interest in the sector has been eroded by competition from Chinese renewables, strong returns on conventional energy, and issues like supply chain disruptions and grid connection challenges. 

Although the Inflation Reduction Act has supported renewable investments in the U.S., analysts warn that the potential return of Donald Trump to office could redirect funds to fossil fuels, while a win for Democrat Kamala Harris might revive confidence in renewables. 

Even with lower interest rates, a new boom on the scale of 2020-21 is unlikely, as renewable growth has slowed. The sector has seen 17 consecutive months of net outflows, losing over $11 billion in 2024 alone, with major funds like the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF losing 28% in unit numbers. 

Finsum: There could be a serious opportunity to find value in these ETFs at the current price levels. 

The total value of buyout deals in PE is projected to reach $521 billion by year-end, an 18% increase over 2023, driven by larger transaction sizes. However, divestitures are stagnating, leaving funds with aging assets and prompting investors to seek higher returns. 

The 10 largest buyout funds have raised 64% of the total capital, while one in five smaller funds remain below their fundraising targets. Bain & Company's Private Equity Midyear Report highlights that the sector has raised $422 billion by mid-May 2024, with buyout funds leading at $199 billion. 

Despite a slight decline in fundraising overall, the report notes a historical low in activity volume, with significant dry powder yet to be deployed. Additionally, the report foresees stable growth in divestitures, but 2024 could still be one of the lowest years for exits since 2016.

Finsum: Privates could begin to slide as rates normalize and people look to traditional products, but we are a little far from that happening. 

Alternative energy stocks have had a poor start to the year as the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) is down 15% YTD. A major component of the industry’s struggle is the poor performance of Tesla, which has been dealing with slowing sales and falling margins. Last week, the company announced that it would be restructuring and laying off 10% of its workforce. In the first quarter, the company had its first decline in vehicle deliveries, from 422,875 in last year’s Q1 to 386,810 this year.

Another is that overvalued parts of the market have moved lower as it’s increasingly clear that rates will remain elevated in the near term. Higher rates have a negative impact on auto sales and result in higher financing costs for green energy projects, leading to fewer installations. 

The larger story is that the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and clean energy from fossil fuels and internal combustion engines is simply taking longer than expected.  EV demand growth seems to have stalled despite optimistic forecasts from many organizations that demand would steadily increase over the next decade. Meanwhile, the supply of EVs is set to meaningfully increase in the coming years. 

Finsum: Alternative energy stocks have been a laggard so far this year. Two of the major reasons are slowing demand for EVs and higher interest rates. 

Entering the year, there was optimism around real estate stocks given consensus expectations of rate cuts due to inflation falling to the Fed’s desired level and a weakening economy. However, the economy has defied skeptics and remains resilient, while inflation is plateauing at higher levels. As a result, the Fed will be less dovish than expected, and the market has tapered back expectations for rate cuts to between 1 and 2 by year-end. 

Another consequence of the data is that mortgage rates are trending back to last year’s highs, with the 30Y at 6.9%. The real estate sector sank lower following last week’s inflation report, led by self-storage companies, office REITs, and homebuilders on the downside. 

Over the past month and YTD, the Real Estate Select SPDR Fund (XLRE) is down 4.6% and 7.8%, respectively. The current environment of rates at a 23-year high is clearly a major headwind. And there are no indications that the status quo will meaningfully change until there is improvement in terms of inflation or more damage to the economy. The impact is evident in terms of Fed futures. At the start of March, odds indicated more than a 50% chance that there would be four or more rate cuts by the end of the year. Now, these odds have plummeted to 5%. 

Finsum: Real estate stocks have sunk lower in the last month, along with the odds of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed. As long as ‘higher for longer’ persists, there will be considerable stress for the weakest segments of the real estate market.

Meredith Whitney, who previously forecasted the financial crisis in the mid-2000s, sees downside for the housing market, driven by changes in behavior among younger men. She sees the beginning of a multiyear decline in housing prices as the lower levels of household formation among men negatively impact demand. 

On the supply side, she sees more homes for sale due to the aging demographics of homeowners. Whitney’s perspective deviates from the consensus, which sees home prices as remaining elevated due to a lack of supply, coupled with a bulge in demand as Millennials enter their peak consumption years over the next decade. This year, most Wall Street banks are forecasting a mid-single digits increase in home prices. 

Another factor impacting housing supply is that the vast majority of mortgages were made at much lower rates. While many asset prices have declined due to the impact of high rates, home prices are an exception. Whitney contends that “normally you would think as rates go up, home prices would go down, and that hasn’t happened over the last two years. I think home prices will normalize because as more inventory and supply come on the market, you’ll see a true clearing price that is lower than it is today. So, I would say 20% lower than it is today.” 

Finsum: The consensus view is that home prices will continue rising due to low supply and demographic-driven demand. Meredith Whitney, well-regarded for predicting the financial crisis, is bearish on the asset class.