(New York)
One of the most respected financial publications in the country has some bad news for investors: the selloff is not over yet. Barron’s argues that the selloff is not close to over, despite the mild recovery, because investors are not yet use to the new “yield backdrop”. For the first time in over a decade, the market seems to be pricing in higher rates and a tighter monetary environment. “The going bet, now, is that the Federal Reserve will continue to lift rates, and thus tighten credit, and maybe to a degree that produces an economic recession”.

FINSUM: We think more volatility is on the way and that it will take a little time for the storm clouds to clear, but we do not expect a bear market, or much more than a 10% overall correction.

(Washington)

A couple of weeks ago all the talk was about how President Trump was eager to have a one on one interview with Robert Mueller in order to set the record straight. Now, the reports are shifting that Trump should not speak to Mueller. Republicans think not speaking would be wise considering new documents which reportedly show bias in the investigation. One explanation of the recent reports is that Trump is trying to see if not speaking to Mueller would be acceptable to the public, or whether it would hurt his image.

FINSUM: If you think this whole investigation is a witch hunt, then it makes sense that Trump should not take the risk of incriminating himself by talking to what is assumed to be a biased investigator. If you have the opposite view, then not talking looks like he has something to hide.

(New York)

For most of the day the stock market was in positive territory yesterday. However, right at the close, the market was gripped by a swift selloff that pushed it into the red for the day. If the saying holds true—that smart money trades the close—then today could be an ugly one. The drop at the end seemed to foretell more volatility to come, and show that the market has not psychologically recovered from Monday. The market may remain directionless until next Wednesday, when new inflation data comes out. Investors are worried about the prospect of stronger inflation, and thus a quick rate rise.

FINSUM: The markets are trying to find a new baseline for valuations as investors search for a new narrative of where shares are heading. The US economic picture is strong, but there is no tax cut or other major carrot being dangled, which seems to be hurting prices.

(New York)

The supposed battle between robo advisors and human advisors has largely fizzled. Evidence indicates that robos are not stealing funds from human advisors, but are instead attracting entirely new ones, increasing the total fee pool overall. However, a new robo has just launched that should perhaps be worrisome. Discount ecommerce retailer Overstock.com, which has a very diversified base of businesses, has just launched a flat fee ($9.95 per month) robo advisor. While the platform itself should not worry advisors, the implication is that much bigger tech players, like Amazon, may soon be involved, which could dramatically change the landscape.

FINSUM: If Amazon, or any of the other huge tech companies, started robo advisors, then there could be a legitimate issue for human advisors.

(New York)

The march downward in ETFs fee has been unstoppable. Over the last few years the fee war between providers, combined with increasing AUM, has driven down fees to almost negligible levels on many of the most popular ETFs. Now, it looks like free ETFs are on the way, or even ones that pay the holder. In the next year, it seems likely that free or negative fee ETFs will debut. This is possible because providers have huge economies of scale as well as good sources of non-fee income from running the funds, such as lending the securities out.

FINSUM: It is sort of amazing that it may be economical to run free or negative fee ETFs, but it seems like an inevitable outcome to the current fee war.