Homes in some pandemic boom towns are significantly overvalued, with Reventure CEO Nick Gerli predicting a steep decline in the Southern real estate market. Gerli estimates that home prices in the South could drop by 20% over the next few years due to a surge in new housing inventory and waning demand. 

Florida and Texas, in particular, are seeing significant price declines, with seven of the 10 cities experiencing the largest number of price drops. The region's housing market bears similarities to previous bubbles, with home prices having surged 50%-70% since the pandemic, while incomes have only risen 10%-20%. 

This imbalance could lead to a substantial correction, especially if the economy enters a recession or unemployment rates rise. Despite the current affordability crisis, Gerli believes that patient homebuyers could find good opportunities in the coming years as the market adjusts.

Finsum: It’s important to monitor these changes in housing, but keep in mind SFR poses a completely different problem set and these areas could still flourish.