FINSUM
Biden to Let Inflation Run Wild
That's correct, Joe Biden’s latest economic rebrand is really a diet version Ronald Reagan era policy. In a recent statement, Joe Biden said that in response to inflation we can either “increase the supply of cars” or “reduce demand for cars by making Americans poorer”. This is essential supply-side economics made famous by the Reagan administration. Additionally, Yellen coined the term ‘modern supply-side’ economics just two weeks later in order to push the Build Back Better bill. This is a liberal tilt on aiding the weakening supply chains that will hopefully strengthen the economic recovery. It's a response to republicans’ attacks that BBB will surge debt and inflation.
FINSUM: The economy is in a difficult place, there is still catch up needed but undoubtedly Americans are feeling the force of inflation and another stimulus package could only further that problem.
Financials Get ESG Boost
The latest data from MSCI Inc. regarding the environmental social and governance criteria gave updates to America’s largest Financial companies like Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley. However, some are accusing rating agencies of ‘greenwashing’ the criteria because these same companies lent a combined $74 billion to fossil-fuel companies. This is the exact reason the SEC is looking to step into ESG ratings in one of their latest announcements. In fact, only 3 lenders in the S&P 500 received ESG rating downgrades. This is mostly because MSCI only considers the fraction of loans to polluters, not their total value.
FINSUM: Total existing outward loans might just be a way the SEC could come down on future ESG rating regulation if these stories gather more headlines.
BlackRock's Active ETFs are David to Goliath Indexes
BlackRock's active management has long been the forgotten investment in the firm's giant ETF basket they manage, but things are starting to turn. While the index business hit $10 trillion in the last quarter it was the active funds dring the fee growth in fact in the last quarter of 2021 they were responsible for 60% of the fee growth. The firm has poured lots of resources into their active funds and their active fixed-income has been a huge winner. The firm seems more willing now than ever to place itself as a big active manager where they have always been synonymous with passive investing. BlackRock credits its growth to its own internal push in active management but there has been a huge industry-wide surge in active funds.
FINSUM: Active equity still lags behind for lots of reasons, so its probably best to stick to direct indexing or ETFs in equity markets.
Merrill Lynch Sees Model Portfolio Engagement Growing
Joe Curtin, head of portfolio management at Merrill Lynch’s Chief Investment Office said there is increased interest from financial advisors in adopting model portfolios. Merrill is an industry leader in MP development, and they have seen AUM pull through almost triple since 2015 in this area. Part of what’s driving the interest is thematic investing within model portfolios. Risk and return are priority concerns with thematic blankets like ESG, demographics, and big data that align with investors' interests. Merrill is planning on launching more portfolios in the future with thematic focuses. Currently, they manage 147 portfolios with around $200 billion in wealth.
FINSUM: MPs are seeing wide adoptions because of their ability to easily tackle themes that 21st-century investors want in their portfolios.
Ultra Short Duration Bond ETFs Get Huge Surge
More so than inflation, interest rate risk is the biggest factor in bond markets. If the Fed hikes and Yields rise then that will only lower the value of many bond ETFs. In response, many investors have turned to shorter-duration fixed income. However, the latest surge is off the charts. Lots of money is flowing into ultra-short cash like ETFs with the lowest duration treasuries. Investors are offloading even medium-duration treasuries in the five-three year window. PIMCO’s MINT saw almost $900 million in inflows setting a record week for the fund. Investors are just looking to store capital in the midst of all the interest rate risk in the economy right now.
FINSUM: It's unclear if one rate hike or two will send yields surging high enough, now might be the time to hold medium duration debt as a lot of the risk could be priced in.