FINSUM
Why Tech is a Value Play
Technology stocks ticked up late this week which was refreshing as they have suffered since November when the Nasdaq crept to an all-time high. Rising bond yields fueled the devaluation in technology stocks because as the yield curve steepened this lowers the relative value of future cash flows which are the foundation of growth stocks. Additionally higher inflation also devalues those future earnings. However, the yield curve stagnating was enough to boost the Nasdaq by 3%. Additionally, most tech companies have surpassed expectations on earnings despite headline numbers from Meta.
Finsum: It might not take too many rate hikes to put inflation back in its place which means tech could be undervalued!
Biggest Threats to Annuities
Annuities are one of the safest financial securities that exist, but that doesn't mean they are without some risk. Sure one of the biggest risks to an annuity is dying early, but there are other external risks like liquidity. Annuities are among the most illiquid contracts and often come with heavy penalty fees in withdrawals. Additionally, if an annuity company goes bankrupt they aren’t regulated by FINRA, and state and local insurance agencies only cover between $250,000-500,000 in losses. In the current environment, inflation growth is a substantial risk to annuities because it devalues the future payment stream in a fixed rate annuity, and even if the Fed raises rates to curb inflation this will only make it a less attractive yield in comparison to the market.
Finsum: Overall, annuities look like one of the safest securities and variable rate annuities may mitigate interest rate risk.
Coal: The Resilient Energy to Keep an Eye On
Coal is the forgotten younger child in the fossil fuel categories and in the age of ESG that has been exacerbated. Demand in the U.S. and Euro area has fallen drastically. For example, it's about half what it was a year ago in the U.S., However coals price has steadily grown as it averaged $168 per metric ton in January which is higher than $119 from all of 2021. What's driving that price increase is the shift in usage from West to East. Coal power is expected to grow by 4.1%, 11%, and 12% in China, India, and SEA respectively over the next three years. In many ways, it was the only available energy in developing countries and has prompted changes in supply chains in both Russia in Indonesia.
Finsum: Just because the U.S. has forgotten about coal doesn’t mean it won’t be a critical part of energy production in the next decade.
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JPMorgan Says Now is the Time to Buy the DiP
Finding a successful stock market predictor is like finding a needle in a haystack, but JPMorgan says they have the indicator, and now is the time to buy in the stock market. The buying guide is when the CBOE Volatility Index grows by over half of its one-month moving average. This has a near bulletproof historical record, only falling during recessions in the last 30 years. Markets gained an average of 9% in the equities in the two quarters after the metric was triggered. Overall, JPMorgan is bullish about the near future in equities and believes there is a lot of runway ahead.
Finsum: Metrics like this can be an anomaly or indicative of something structural underneath, still a recession isn’t out of question with Fed taper tantrum possibilities.