(New York)
There has been a lot of focus, including both worry and skepticism, surrounding the potential inversion of the yield curve. The two and ten-year Treasury are now just 20 bp apart. Because yield curve inversions have been a very reliable indicator of recession, many are worried. However, some are skeptical that the current near-inversion means much because of how distorted long-term bond prices have become because of quantitative easing. The reality though, according to the FT, is that it doesn’t matter if long-term yields are artificially low. Because the market believes in the predictive power of inversions, companies, consumers, and investors will act as though we are headed into a recession, and thus create one in a self-fulfilling prophecy.
FINSUM: This is an interesting argument that relies strongly on the concept of herd mentality amongst investors. We tend to agree that an inversion may cause an adverse reaction in the economy and markets.
(New York)
Investors in fixed income need to be aware of a brand new loophole that was just opened to Delaware-based companies. A new provision allows companies (specifically LLCs) to split in two and divide their assets and liabilities between them as they see fit. The rule would allow companies to put certain assets beyond the reach of creditors, for instance putting debt in one entity and assets in another. The big problem is that most bonds don’t have provisions to protect against this behavior because it didn’t exist as a concept or legal process until it was approved this month. Another issue is that many contracts are written from the perspective of New York law, but that might have not much weight with Delaware-based rules.
FINSUM: This is a messy problem for anyone who owns private or smaller company debt. We thought investors should be made aware right away.
(New York)
One of the ways that investors or advisors might think to diversify their risk is to invest in a number of different managers. The reality is, however, that many of those managers, especially within an asset class, will all have similar looking portfolios, which means you may be much less diversified than you think. The obvious analogue is index tracking funds. There would be no point in buying multiple ETFs from different providers that all track the same index. Yet that is what investors are doing in some markets. This concept is particularly relevant for the riskier end of the credit markets right now, where the market seems to be poised for the same kind of correlated fall as happened during the Crisis. In CLOs for instance, many of the largest loans are held by a majority of the major managers.
FINSUM: This seems like a smart and timely warning. Correlation can doom even the best diversification efforts, especially when it is credit driven.
(New York)
Retail investors have often had trouble accessing the corporate bond markets. Bond are traded in $1,000 increments and usually move in multi-million Dollar transactions, putting the asset out of the reach of most (new corporate bond ETFs aside). However, there is an easier way to directly own bonds—so-called baby bonds, or bonds sold on stock exchanges like the NYSE in $25 increments. The total market size for the bonds is around $20 bn and the securities are usually senior unsecured. Issuers like them because they are callable after just five years. Frequently the bonds have higher yields than their convention counterparts. Finally, they pay interest four times a year rather than twice.
FINSUM: This is an interesting if niche asset class, but there is some appeal in the unique terms these “baby bonds” have. There are also some big name issuers like AT&T and eBay.
(New York)
One of Wall Street’s favorite trades has gone down the tubes this year, and for a classic reason. One of the hottest trades of this year has been to short ten-year Treasury bonds. Many institutional money managers believed that the bonds would see their yields rise and prices fall as the Fed raised rates and the US continued to grow at a quick pace. However, the opposite has happened recently, and ten-year Treasury bonds have seen their yields fall from well over 3% to just 2.83%. The reason why is a short squeeze. Short interest in the bonds rose from a net short position of around 75,000 futures contracts at the beginning of the year to almost 700,000 now.
FINSUM: We think there are a lot more factors keeping yields low than a short squeeze, but it is definitely a considerable component.
(New York)
When the Republican tax reform package came out last year, there were fears that the changes could cause weakness in the muni market. However, while those potential long-term challenges remain, the reality is that the tax changes have helped the muni market considerably. The reason why is that the lack of SALT deductions means that many more investors have a strong inventive to buy muni bonds. This has kept yields low and demand robust, as for a high income couple in states like New York, a local muni bond yielding 3% is equivalent to a taxable corporate bond yielding over 6%.
FINSUM: Given the way that the new tax package heavily incentivizes muni income, we expect demand and prices to remain robust.
(New York)
Anyone who pays attention to the bond markets will know that there has been an extraordinary run up in BBB rated bonds since the Financial Crisis. From just $700 bn worth of bonds in 2008, to a whopping $3 tn now. Using the metaphor that such bonds, which are just one rung above junk, are like the dead trees and limbs in the forest before a fire, Barron’s is predicting big problems. The trigger is likely to be the next recession, which would cause many BBB bonds to fall down into the junk category. This would spark mandatory selling by many funds, leading to sharp losses for investors. What’s worse, such bonds, at an average yield of 4.3%, are not compensating investors for this risk, as they have only a 60 bp spread to A rated bonds.
FINSUM: There are bound to be a lot of fallen angels and losses in the next economic downturn. As one analyst summed it up, “With all this dry tinder lying around, it wouldn’t take much to set off a raging fire”.
(New York)
A lot of investors are worried about the potential for an inverted yield curve, and not just because of what it could mean for markets and the economy. If you are holding long-term bonds that will be yielding less than shorter-term bonds, you are likely going to be incentivized to reshuffle your holdings. Accordingly, Citigroup has come out with a first of its kind product that allows retail investors to fully redeem the principal on their bonds if the yield curve inverts. According to Bloomberg the “30-year constant maturity swap rate can sink as much as 10 basis points below the two-year rate before holders start incurring losses”. Continuing, “The products pay a coupon and return full principal as long as the spread remains greater than that level”.
FINSUM: This seems a bit sophisticated for most retail investors, but it is definitely an interesting product and potentially a good one for hedging.
(New York)
It is no secret that credit has expanded mightily in the last several years. The investment grade corporate bond market has completely ballooned, but leveraged loans have been another important area of growth. And while the risk of IG corporate bonds is well understood, the risks of the latter are less apparent. Leveraged loans are popular right now because they have floating rates, but those rates are a big risk. The reason why is not in the extra payments themselves, but because most leveraged loans are issued to refinance existing debt. The issue is that when corporate borrowers come back to the market to refinance, they might find many less lenders and much higher rates. The is so because as rates rise, other safer asset classes become more attractive.
FINSUM: The whole corporate sector has been binging on low rates for years, and there is bound to be a reckoning. The scale of that reckoning is the big question.
(Washington)
This has been a week of divergent views on bonds. Earlier this week we ran a story arguing that there would be no bear market in Treasuries. It was a solid argument. However, now there is a contention out there that ten-years, specifically, might struggle. The reason why is that demand at auction has been falling for the bonds just at a time when the US needs to issue more and more to cover its deficit. In addition to excess supply, the other big issue seems to be that short-term Treasuries are yielding so much relative to ten-years, that there is little incentive to buy them.
FINSUM: In one sense this is bad, but in another good. The downside is that holders of ten-years (which are a huge component of fixed income indexes) will be hurt as yields rise. But on the positive side, this is exactly the kind of force that keeps the yield curve from inverting as longer-term yields rise alongside shorter-term ones.
More...
(New York)
With all of the bearish stories swirling around lately (us included), it was refreshing to find an alternative view today. Bloomberg has put out an argument that there will be no bear market in store for Treasuries. The story is from the top ranked bond strategist in the world, who points out that a decline in structured credit and related products means that Treasuries are a much higher component of overall fixed income indexes these days. This concentration is likely to keep rising over the next decade, which means indexes and benchmarks will need to buy Treasuries, a critical factor which will keep demand high. Another important point is that the stock market is losing its appeal compared to short-term Treasuries, as the yield of the latter is way ahead of the former and likely to stay that way.
FINSUM: This is excellent analysis from a highly reputably source. Our only addition would be to point out that US and global demography also reinforces the key points, as the aging of the world means there will be a higher demand for income investments over the next decade.
(New York)
They had been paused for a couple of months, but in the last week, things started to change. Treasury yields once again broke above the 3% barrier last Wednesday. The number is a psychologically important and has proved a stalwart level for the yield to breakthrough. It did so earlier this year, before quickly falling back into the 2.8% range. Yields seemed to be pushed higher by a sharp rise in Japanese bonds yields following action by the BOJ.
FINSUM: Treasury yields are hard to handle right now. On the one hand, the economy looks fantastic, which should send them higher, but at the same time the Fed looks hawkish and the risk of recession seems to be rising, which would keep things in check.
(Washington)
In what could come as very welcome news for investors across all asset classes, Fed Chief Powell has indicated that the Fed may take a break from hikes for a while. The question is when this pause in hikes will occur, and the Fed is debating this internally. The central is expected to introduce the words “for now” in regards to its plan for near-term hikes, a new phrase that signals conditionality. According to a former Fed economist, “Given that there’s no visible inflation threat -- not in the data and not in the FOMC forecasts -- it makes sense to inject conditionality on future moves”.
FINSUM: We hate analyzing Fed speak, but a pause in hikes seems like a good idea to us. With inflation low, there is no reason for the Fed to forcefully invert the yield curve and cause a recession.
(Tokyo)
Bond yields had been rising quickly in the US. The rise seemed to come out of nowhere for American investors, but most analysts said the quick jump in ten-year yields was due to a possible policy change by the BOJ to a less accommodative stance. However, the BOJ announced today that it would make only very minor changes and would remain highly loose in its monetary approach. The bank said it would not join other global central bank’s in tightening policy, and would leave rates ultra low for an extended period.
FINSUM: This is good news for bond investors, as Japanese tightening was interpreted as a major threat. This should help keep US yields looking attractive versus global yields, which will in turn keep them lower.