(New York)
Bond yields are on the rise, from long-term Treasuries to corporate bonds. However, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, says…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
(New York)
Some analysts think that investment grade (IG) bonds might see some very rough times ahead. In fact, one analyst from Pavilion Global Markets says that IG bonds have “virtually no value proposition under any given economic scenario”. Think about the following package of information taken as a whole: 1. iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF has lost 6.6% this year; 2. IG yields are well below 6.6%; 3. Investors have been pouring money in IG bond mutual funds and ETFs. So IG bonds are losing value much more quickly than they are yielding, which spells a recipe for disaster to some. According to the same analyst “be mindful of the potential for significant outflows in the days to come”.
FINSUM: We can’t say we agree here. While fixed income as a whole looks fragile right now, the losses have provided room for IG bonds to appreciate as the economy and earnings improve. We do not think it will be all bad news.
(New York)
The Pandemic has shifted the paradigm for many investors as they look to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) to make up a larger share of their portfolio. ESG will shape the future of investing but there is a new way to invest in green companies with a new twist. Sustainably linked bonds (SLB) allow firms to receive money for green energy initiatives but rather they will pay a penalty if they don’t meet expectations. Marilyn Ceci head of ESG development at JP Morgan expects SLB to hit $120-150 billion despite issuance since inception being only around $20 billion. SLB isn’t a threat to ESG as the industry is expected to grow from $270 billion last year to over $400 billion this year, but rather a compliment to the growing industry. ESG's ability to withstand the full business cycle is a testament to its future. FINSUM: SLB’s offer many companies a way to a greener future without an explicit plan, and are a reflection of how large ESG is growing. Other companies need a way to keep up with this burgeoning bond market.
(New York)
There might be a great migration in the cards for bonds. While many have spoken of a broad migration into equities that occurred over the last year, a smaller scale change might be about to occur within bonds. Treasuries have been getting hammered, and corporate bonds are appearing increasingly attractive to investors for a number of reasons. Firstly, their durations tend to be much shorter, meaning they have significantly lower interest rate risk—crucial right now. And secondly, with the economy picking up, earnings and business health are looking brighter and brighter.
FINSUM: Aviva Investors thinks corporate bonds have a nice pathway to gain. While rates are working against corporate bonds, the fundamentals are strong. If yields finally stabilize under 2%, it is easy to imagine investors piling into corporate bonds as the recovery strengthens.
(New York)
Yields have been moving all over the place. And while there are daily moves higher or lower, there is a definitive bias towards sharp moves upward. Accordingly, investors need to be thinking about rate hedging. Investors are in a tough place as Treasury yield rises have been causing losses, but the bonds themselves still don’t have high enough yields to be attractive. With that in mind, there are a couple ways investors can go about protecting themselves. Firstly, they can buy floating rate bond-focused ETFs, which give protection but have very low yields. The other opportunity is to buy into bond funds that access riskier corners of the markets, where yields are much higher and durations are shorter, giving less rate sensitivity.
FINSUM: Our favorite ETFs for this purpose are from ProShares, specifically IGHG, which hedges rate risk but still offers the yield income.
(New York)
Even before the pandemic and subsequent crisis, the high-yield Muni market failed to deliver the returns after taxes that the corporate bond market…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
(New York)
Bond market investing hasn’t seemed so attractive recently as rates on even long-term government debt such as the 10-year Treasury hit lows…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
(New York)
The bond market is a powder keg that may have only started to explode, says ING. “The bond market has been sitting on a powder keg since last week. Attitude towards duration among fixed income investors has grown cautious, to put it mildly”, says Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research for the Americas at ING. “In this context, we do not blame investors for exiting at the first sign of a sell-off”, he continued.
FINSUM: Investors are currently terrified about inflation and it is hitting Treasury yields and tech stocks squarely on the chin. Our opinion is these fears are overblown and this is a market overreaction, especially as it regards tech stocks. These stocks are losing despite the fact that underlying fundamentals strongly favor the growth of tech earnings.
(New York)
The muni market is in a very interesting place. Despite the overall erosion of credit quality for municipalities since the pandemic began, demand for munis is at an all-time high and returns have been great. Yields are very low, but until very recently, they still offered a substantial benefit over Treasuries. All of this has coincided with a major change to the space: the infusion of institutional investors. For decades, the muni space has been dominated by HNW individuals and their advisors, but over the last couple years, institutional buying has been rising strongly. According to a study by an industry body “Over the last decade, customer purchases of fixed-rate, tax-exempt municipal securities of $100,000 or less decreased by 46%, the MSRB found. Meanwhile, institutional-sized purchases of over $1 million increased 46% in the same time period”. “Most of the large retail managers have moved clients from traditional, transactional, retail accounts into discretionary platforms like SMAs … The firm itself then makes the allocation decisions and is, therefore, less responsible for making sure that the client understands their investment decision”, said Matt Fabian, partner at Municipal Market Analytics.
FINSUM: This is actually good news for all involved—retail investors and advisors included (in a broad sense)—as it improves liquidity and tightens spreads.
(New York)
Inflation concerns are on the rise. The Fed has reacted with large unprecedented moves to the Covid-19 recession. The Biden administration is...View the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
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(Chicago)
Municipal bond market returns remain low, but nonetheless investors seem willing to keep demanding low yield munis. This rise in demand...view the full story on our partner Magnifi's site.
(Washington, D.C.)
Yellen, former chairmen of the Federal Reserve, was confirmed by the Senate in her nomination for secretary of the treasury. The 84-15 vote reflects both Republicans willingness to work with the Biden administration on economic issues, and Democrats desire to brand their own economic reactions to the covid crisis. Yellen, previously at Brookings Institution, has a decorated history in public service working for Clinton administrations council of economic advisors, CEO of San Francisco regional federal reserve bank, and chair of the Federal reserve. Yellen faces many challenges in her role as treasurer both with the current state of the economy and the looming U.S. debt. Yellen plans to work closely with current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to address the U.S. economy.
FINSUM: Yellen historically is known for reading the economy through the lens of the labor market, so expect her policy guidance to be especially informed through a variety of labor market indicators. Additionally expect Yellen’s policy to be more expansionary than a previous administration, but she is weary of the U.S. current debt and has denounced the large deficits supported by Modern Monetary Theory.
(Washington)
Munis bonds have done well recently, but the ultra-low rate environment seems to have confused many about their relevance. It is critical to remember that despite yields being so low, munis still very much have a place in the environment. In fact, one could argue the current environment is better for munis than a more conventional one. The reason why is that munis still have a major spread advantage versus taxable equivalents. For example, while munis only yield an average of 0.86% right now, that translates to a taxable yield of 1.53% for those in the top income bracket. However, as we all know, Treasury yields are still much nearer to 1%, meaning munis current enjoy a major advantage over taxable bonds.
FINSUM: Given Biden and the Democrats’ support of state and local municipalities, and munis’ currently yield advantage, there is no reason for the asset class not to have a great year.
Advisors don’t need to be told that rates are at ultra-low levels. Yet despite this, munis are still maintaining their attractiveness. See the full story here on our partner Magnifi's site.