(New York)
Model portfolios are getting ever more popular for advisors. Not only do they help outsource some portfolio management, but there is such a wide variety of them that they can be tailored to many different plans. In some cases, there are almost too many! One area where they make a lot of sense is in tax minimization strategies. Biden and the Democrats look like to hike taxes considerably, and that fact coupled with ultra-low yields and highly variant financial situations in muni bonds, means there is a lot to gain from models in this area.
FINSUM: COVID affected municipalities in very different ways, and spreads to Treasuries are historically low, so there is a of risk. Nuveen is seen as a leader in the munis space, so a good place to start the search.
(New York)
The big inflation-driven bond sell-off has decidedly ended. In fact, bond yields have fallen considerably (with prices rising) over the last few weeks. The gains have prompted some investors to wonder if it is time to jump back into the long-term bond market. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America say an emphatic “no” to that idea. Goldman said the market moves this month have been “Noisy (and potentially temporary)”. They do not believe that yields will continue to fall, only that the chances of a big overshoot of how high they go have diminished.
FINSUM: Yields still seem likely to trend higher, but the market has bought into the idea that the Fed is not going to taper support any time soon, which means the lid is now on long-term yields much more tightly.
(New York)
Q1 ended about as poorly as possible for the treasury market as losses according to ICE indices hit…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
(Washington)
Investors may fear it, but we all know the big tax package is coming. Personal income tax rates, and likely business rates will rise. State and local taxes will be affected too. So one big question is how this will pay out for muni bonds. The answer, at least according to Franklin Templeton, is that munis are going to do great. The reason why could not be simpler: with tax rates rising, the relative value of munis rises since their tax exempt status because relatively more valuable.
FINSUM: Anxiety about the forthcoming tax plan is rising, and that is a great tailwind for munis. Couple that with the fact that Democrats are more in favor of federal support for municipalities and you have a great combination for muni bonds.
(New York)
Bond yields are on the rise, from long-term Treasuries to corporate bonds. However, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, says…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
(New York)
Some analysts think that investment grade (IG) bonds might see some very rough times ahead. In fact, one analyst from Pavilion Global Markets says that IG bonds have “virtually no value proposition under any given economic scenario”. Think about the following package of information taken as a whole: 1. iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF has lost 6.6% this year; 2. IG yields are well below 6.6%; 3. Investors have been pouring money in IG bond mutual funds and ETFs. So IG bonds are losing value much more quickly than they are yielding, which spells a recipe for disaster to some. According to the same analyst “be mindful of the potential for significant outflows in the days to come”.
FINSUM: We can’t say we agree here. While fixed income as a whole looks fragile right now, the losses have provided room for IG bonds to appreciate as the economy and earnings improve. We do not think it will be all bad news.
(New York)
The Pandemic has shifted the paradigm for many investors as they look to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) to make up a larger share of their portfolio. ESG will shape the future of investing but there is a new way to invest in green companies with a new twist. Sustainably linked bonds (SLB) allow firms to receive money for green energy initiatives but rather they will pay a penalty if they don’t meet expectations. Marilyn Ceci head of ESG development at JP Morgan expects SLB to hit $120-150 billion despite issuance since inception being only around $20 billion. SLB isn’t a threat to ESG as the industry is expected to grow from $270 billion last year to over $400 billion this year, but rather a compliment to the growing industry. ESG's ability to withstand the full business cycle is a testament to its future. FINSUM: SLB’s offer many companies a way to a greener future without an explicit plan, and are a reflection of how large ESG is growing. Other companies need a way to keep up with this burgeoning bond market.
(New York)
There might be a great migration in the cards for bonds. While many have spoken of a broad migration into equities that occurred over the last year, a smaller scale change might be about to occur within bonds. Treasuries have been getting hammered, and corporate bonds are appearing increasingly attractive to investors for a number of reasons. Firstly, their durations tend to be much shorter, meaning they have significantly lower interest rate risk—crucial right now. And secondly, with the economy picking up, earnings and business health are looking brighter and brighter.
FINSUM: Aviva Investors thinks corporate bonds have a nice pathway to gain. While rates are working against corporate bonds, the fundamentals are strong. If yields finally stabilize under 2%, it is easy to imagine investors piling into corporate bonds as the recovery strengthens.
(New York)
Yields have been moving all over the place. And while there are daily moves higher or lower, there is a definitive bias towards sharp moves upward. Accordingly, investors need to be thinking about rate hedging. Investors are in a tough place as Treasury yield rises have been causing losses, but the bonds themselves still don’t have high enough yields to be attractive. With that in mind, there are a couple ways investors can go about protecting themselves. Firstly, they can buy floating rate bond-focused ETFs, which give protection but have very low yields. The other opportunity is to buy into bond funds that access riskier corners of the markets, where yields are much higher and durations are shorter, giving less rate sensitivity.
FINSUM: Our favorite ETFs for this purpose are from ProShares, specifically IGHG, which hedges rate risk but still offers the yield income.
(New York)
Even before the pandemic and subsequent crisis, the high-yield Muni market failed to deliver the returns after taxes that the corporate bond market…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
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(New York)
Bond market investing hasn’t seemed so attractive recently as rates on even long-term government debt such as the 10-year Treasury hit lows…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
(New York)
The bond market is a powder keg that may have only started to explode, says ING. “The bond market has been sitting on a powder keg since last week. Attitude towards duration among fixed income investors has grown cautious, to put it mildly”, says Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research for the Americas at ING. “In this context, we do not blame investors for exiting at the first sign of a sell-off”, he continued.
FINSUM: Investors are currently terrified about inflation and it is hitting Treasury yields and tech stocks squarely on the chin. Our opinion is these fears are overblown and this is a market overreaction, especially as it regards tech stocks. These stocks are losing despite the fact that underlying fundamentals strongly favor the growth of tech earnings.
(New York)
The muni market is in a very interesting place. Despite the overall erosion of credit quality for municipalities since the pandemic began, demand for munis is at an all-time high and returns have been great. Yields are very low, but until very recently, they still offered a substantial benefit over Treasuries. All of this has coincided with a major change to the space: the infusion of institutional investors. For decades, the muni space has been dominated by HNW individuals and their advisors, but over the last couple years, institutional buying has been rising strongly. According to a study by an industry body “Over the last decade, customer purchases of fixed-rate, tax-exempt municipal securities of $100,000 or less decreased by 46%, the MSRB found. Meanwhile, institutional-sized purchases of over $1 million increased 46% in the same time period”. “Most of the large retail managers have moved clients from traditional, transactional, retail accounts into discretionary platforms like SMAs … The firm itself then makes the allocation decisions and is, therefore, less responsible for making sure that the client understands their investment decision”, said Matt Fabian, partner at Municipal Market Analytics.
FINSUM: This is actually good news for all involved—retail investors and advisors included (in a broad sense)—as it improves liquidity and tightens spreads.
(New York)
Inflation concerns are on the rise. The Fed has reacted with large unprecedented moves to the Covid-19 recession. The Biden administration is...View the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site