There’s a major drawback to today’s hyper-connected world where investors are constantly receiving financial advice that is mostly short-term and doesn’t necessarily have the investors’ best interests in mind. Contrast that approach to a long-term, fundamental based approach that is based on timeless principles rather than impulsive thinking.

Recently, there has been a narrative that individuals should be buying individual bonds. Adam Abbas, a portfolio manager at Oakmark Funds, pushed back against this notion and made the case for why most investors are better off with mutual funds and ETFs. 

He acknowledges that bonds look very appealing given where rates are relative to historic levels and that default rates for high-quality securities are likely to remain low. However, the risk climbs when investors start ‘reaching for yield’ which tends to happen with individual investors. Therefore, some sort of comprehensive credit analysis is required from a bottom-up perspective. 

Further, most individual investors will not be able to sufficiently diversify their portfolios. This means that their portfolios would be damaged by a corporate bond default. In addition to understanding companies, investors also need to have a grasp on the macro picture as factors like inflation or rate policy can also impact returns. 

Given these difficulties, most investors are better off choosing an astute active manager to invest in bonds as they will conduct proper due diligence and ensure that portfolios are sufficiently diversified. 

Finsum: There’s a trend of individual investors buying individual bonds. Oakmark’s Adam Abbas pushes back against this and makes the case for why most investors are better off with a mutual fund or ETF. 

According to a survey conducted of attendees at the VettaFi Income Strategy Symposium, 60% are looking to add fixed income ETF exposure from cash and/or equities. This aligns with the view of fund managers on the panel who also believe that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its hiking cycle. 

John Croke, Vanguard’s head of active fixed income product strategy, commented that this is a good time to invest in fixed income. He sees the economy heading for a mild recession in the middle of the year despite the better than expected, recent Q3 GDP figures. He agreed with attendees that the hiking cycle is in its final innings and believes that the Fed funds rate will be closer to 4% rather than 5%. 

For investors looking to up their fixed income exposure, he recommends an ETF such as the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND). BND offers exposure to a diversified basket of investment-grade, US debt. He also recommends the Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF (VUSB) for investors looking to exchange cash for bonds. VUSB is composed of a diversified basket of high-quality and medium-quality bonds with an average maturity between 0 and 2 years. 

Finsum: According to a survey of attendees at the VettaFi Strategic Income Symposium, 60% of advisors are looking to increase their fixed income ETF allocation in 2024. 

Allworth Financial manages $19 billion in client assets. Recently, Allworth CIO Andy Stout shared the firm’s approach to managing model portfolios for clients. The firm has a scorecard in which it quantitatively evaluates all investable mutual funds and ETFs. It follows up by having conversations with managers of funds with high marks to see if their process is ‘repeatable’ prior to investing.

Allworth’s core portfolio is a 60/40 mix between equities and bonds, respectively. The equities side is composed of 48% US stocks and 12% international. The fixed income side is a combination of short-term fixed income funds, investment grade, total return funds, and a handful of active funds.

Allworth believes in spreading allocations between multiple asset managers. For instance in its core portfolio, they use SPDR, Vanguard, Blackrock, and JPMorgan. When it comes to fund selection, the firm looks for securities that are equipped to navigate the entire business cycle. Stout also noted that consistency is valued more since success is more about ‘avoiding strikeouts’ than hitting a home run. In terms of risks, he sees recession risk as remaining elevated and thus favors more defensive sectors and investments.   

Finsum: Allworth Financial CIO Andy Stout shared the firm’s approach to model portfolios, and what opportunities and risks he sees at the moment. 

The SEC has approved the first set of bitcoin ETFs this week following a long review process. Multiple ETFs began trading on Thursday to prevent any firm from having a first-mover advantage. So far, the iShares Bitcoin Trust is the leader in terms of inflows followed by the Bitwise bitcoin ETF and the Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF.

This may adversely affect demand for gold as investors will have another option to diversify portfolios. According to Joy Yang, the Global Head of Index Product Management at MarketVector Indexes, these new ETFs will likely result in gold remaining range bound around current prices due to less interest from investors. She believes it could be similar to 2021 when gold underperformed during the bull market in cryptocurrencies.

Still, she doesn’t see gold falling below $2,000 in 2024 and is bullish on it in the longer-term due to geopolitical risks and economic and financial uncertainty. And she acknowledges that gold has more upside if the Fed is forced to cut more aggressively than currently anticipated. 

Overall, gold and bitcoin have many similarities despite one being less than 2 decades old, while the other has been around since the dawn of humanity. And both are ‘stores of value’ relative to currencies and offer protection against inflation. 

Finsum: Approval of multiple bitcoin ETFs is expected in the coming weeks. This is likely to have a negative impact on gold demand as investors will have another option to diversify their portfolios.

2023 was an unprecedented year for interest rate volatility. The yield on the 10-year reached a low of 3.3% in April following the regional banking crisis, peaked at 5% in October, and finished the year at 3.8% following a series of supportive inflation data.

Given that inflation has declined to 3.1% which is nearly 70% less than the highest levels of 2021, the odds of a soft landing continue to rise. Currently, the Fed’s plan is to loosen financial conditions by lowering the Fed funds rate, while it continues to shrink its balance sheet.

Part of the plan should also be to reduce bond market volatility especially since it has doubled over the past 2 years and remains elevated relative to norms. In some respects, elevated bond market volatility is a consequence of the Fed’s battle against inflation. Now, it must also effectively deal with this issue before it becomes more substantial. 

Therefore, it’s likely that the Fed will cut back on its quantitative tightening program in which $95 billion worth of maturing bonds are not reinvested. Already, these efforts have succeeded in shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet by 15%. Another reason that curbing bond market volatility is necessary is that the Treasury will be auctioning off large amounts of notes and bills in the coming months. 

Finsum: The Federal Reserve has made significant strides in turning inflation lower. Now, it must take steps to reduce bond market volatility.

Direct indexing is in the midst of a boom due to increasing awareness of its benefits from investors and adoption by advisors. Some of the major benefits for clients are increased tax efficiency and more personalization while remaining diversified with low costs. For advisors, it’s an opportunity to add value to clients and provide more specialized services. Overall, it’s estimated that direct indexing can add between 30 and 50 basis points in annual returns.

However, most continue to think of direct indexing in terms of equities, but the technology can also be applied to fixed income. With stocks, most direct indexing strategies are based on re-creating an index within a separately managed account with some adjustments to better fit a client’s financial needs and goals.

In contrast on the fixed income side, indices are not replicated, but it can provide more control, flexibility, and personalization. They can also find increased tax efficiency through regular portfolio scans just like with equities to harvest tax losses which can be used to offset capital gains in other parts of the portfolio. Another benefit is that investors can fine-tune their fixed income portfolios and optimize for different characteristics such as duration, credit risk, income, or geography. 

Finsum: Direct indexing is in the midst of a boom. While many are now familiar with its benefit for equities, it can also be used with fixed income. 

A skirmish over fees preceded the long-awaited SEC approval of Bitcoin ETFs, which finally arrived on January 10th. Just days before the historic green light, applicants, including BlackRock and ARK, amended their proposals, slashing or eliminating management fees to woo early investors. This sudden fee competition presents a unique opportunity, favoring those who invest in these ETFs first.

BlackRock's ETF, for instance, carries a 0.30% annual fee, preceded by a mere 0.20% introductory rate for the first year or $5 billion in assets under management (AUM). ARK amended their application, indicating they would waive their 0.25% fee during an introductory 6-month period for the first $1 billion in AUM. These pricing moves reflect the intense competition brewing in the nascent Bitcoin ETF space.

Why the sudden price drop? One answer lies in the inherent simplicity of Bitcoin ETFs. Unlike traditional, diversified index funds with hundreds of securities, these products hold primarily just one asset – Bitcoin. This reduces complexity, leaving ample room for fee compression. Consequently, fees are poised to become a differentiator, influencing investor decisions in this uncharted territory.

However, navigating this new landscape requires caution. Investors should closely scrutinize underlying investment structures and track records of issuers. Due diligence is paramount when navigating this rapidly evolving space.

Finsum: The era of cryptocurrency ETFs begins with a race to lower fees, with many initial issuers slashing fees during introductory periods.

A recent report on real estate holdings of institutional investors revealed that while their allocation to the asset class remained level from 2022 to 2023, the allocation in the preceding decade increased by 190 basis points, a jump of 20%.

Historical data underscores the potential benefits of private real estate. A whitepaper from TIAA—a respected organization established by Andrew Carnegie in 1918 to support teacher retirements—highlights the performance of private real estate over a two-decade span. From 2000 to 2020, private real estate exhibited a very low correlation with stocks, bonds, and listed REITs. This suggests that incorporating private real estate into a portfolio could enhance diversification, which is crucial for managing risk.

Moreover, private real estate has traditionally been an effective hedge against inflation. As inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, the tangible asset class of real estate often sees its value and the income it generates keep pace with or exceed inflation rates, thereby preserving the real value of an investor's income.

For financial advisors, the strategic inclusion of private real estate in client portfolios can provide a twofold advantage: diversification benefits and protection against inflation. This can be especially valuable during periods of market volatility and rising prices, helping clients to achieve a more stable and resilient investment outcome.

Finsum: Real estate’s diversification and inflation hedging benefits are among the reasons why institutional investors continue to maintain their increased allocation to the asset class.

For investors nearing or in retirement, navigating the delicate balance between capital preservation and growth can be a tightrope walk. While holding ample cash provides comfort during market downturns, it risks missing out on potential gains. Enter the buffer ETF, a unique investment vehicle offering shelter from storms while still allowing a path to sunshine.

These ETFs, also known as defined outcome ETFs, employ options to create a buffer against market declines. A typical fund might protect holders against, say, the first 9% of losses. But just like insurance, this protection comes at a price.

Unlike regular ETFs that track an index precisely, buffer ETFs also cap their upside potential. So, if the market soars, the fund will only capture a percentage of that gain. It's a trade-off: limited sunshine for guaranteed cover during rain.

Of course, buffer ETFs aren't a magic bullet. Their complexities require careful research. Fees, the specific buffer and cap levels, and the underlying index all affect their performance. As popular as the concept has become in recent years, more than 200 of these funds now exist offering a wide range of features. For advisors looking for a way to offer their clients downside protection, buffer ETFs are worth a look.

Finsum: A new category of exchange traded funds, buffer ETFs, has been growing in popularity due to their downside protection and ability to share in upside gains.

2024 has started off with a bearish tone for the energy sector amid concerns of a supply glut and weakening demand. On Monday, crude oil prices dropped 4% as Saudi Arabia reduced prices for Asian customers by $2 per barrel. 

This is leading to speculation that Saudi Arabia could be looking to regain market share by punishing US producers and undercut cheaper Iranian and Russian oil. It could lead to a similar situation as 2020 when oil prices collapsed as Saudi Arabia flooded the market to punish other producers. Currently, the US is producing 13.2 million barrels per day of oil and has been restocking inventories and increasing exports. Others see it more as the consequence of a weak demand environment and a reflection of a decelerating economy. 

Energy prices had been higher to start the year amid an increase in geopolitical tensions. These include Houthi rebels attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the escalations in the war between Israel and Hamas which could turn it into a larger, regional war. However, these concerns are being dwarfed by the supply and demand picture as evidenced by West Texas crude oil at $70 per barrel. 

Finsum: Oil prices dropped as Saudi Arabia announced that it would be reducing prices for Asian customers. Some believe that the country could be acting to protect market share.