FINRA and SEC regulators have increased enforcement and oversight of Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI). Recent focus has been on increasing compliance within the sales process. There have been several FINRA actions to punish firms for improper supervision to ensure the fiduciary standard is being followed.

The pace of these actions and enforcement has gradually picked up since the moratorium on enforcement ended. Further, regulators have also made public comments emphasizing the need for more aggressive action. 

In 2023, there were FINRA enforcements following only 8 in 2022. The agency has also started to impose personal fines for sales violations or requiring advisors to pay back a portion of losses. Prior, regulatory agencies would see compensation and damages from the firm rather than individuals. This change in strategy is a reflection that they are trying to deter violations of the fiduciary standard at the individual and firm level.

Looking ahead, comments from SEC and FINRA officials reveal that this is only the beginning. According to FINRA’s acting head of enforcement, Chris Kelly, ‘more and more’ cases involving all four pillars of Reg BI which includes disclosure, care, conflict of interest, and compliance are likely to be filed. 

Finsum: FINRA and SEC regulators are increasing Reg BI enforcement. They are targeting firms for improper sales supervision and punishing brokers for violations.

Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) has been quite pessimistic on private credit and sees major downside if rates don’t fall as expected. This is contrary to many in the industry embracing private credit like Blackstone and Apollo Global. 

In contrast, PIMCO is looking to take advantage of the crisis that it’s forecasting. It also has larger implications for the economy and markets given that private credit has taken the bulk of risky lending which used to come from investment banks. 

PIMCO’s thesis rests on the US economy slowing in 2024 and a hard landing in Europe and the UK. If the economy remains resilient, then rates are unlikely to fall as much as expected. This would put stress on private markets where there is less transparency and price discovery. The firm believes that many borrowers are quite risky and quite exposed to a decline in revenues. They believe that about a quarter of private credit portfolios could face difficulties if rates don’t fall or are less than expected. 

PIMCO spies an opportunity if private lenders face pressure from its creditors based on portfolio values dropping. This would allow PIMCO to squeeze out other lenders by buying into debt at a discount. It would also continue a trend of the firm moving away from its roots of fixed income investing and increasingly into alternative assets. This segment has grown from $32 billion in 2016 to $170 billion in the first half of 2023. 

Finsum: PIMCO is bearish on private credit due to concerns about balance sheet risk with risky borrowers, bearishness on the economy in 2024, and the market pre-emptively pricing in a dovish Fed.

Cohen & Steers believes that 2024 will mark a turnaround in private real estate following years of being plagued by issues like a drop in office occupancies and high interest rates. The firm emphasizes that real estate remains a cyclical business with many indications that we are near a trough in the cycle. It acknowledges that some pain is still coming as large amounts of debt will mature in the next couple of years and require refinancing, likely leading to more defaults and distressed assets. 

However, this will present an attractive opportunity for investors according to Cohen & Steers. The firm sees private real estate following the same trajectory as public REITs, lower prices in the interim before a gradual recovery as the Fed shifts to cutting rates later in the year. 

The firm favors newer properties in the sunbelt over older properties in coastal markets. It sees migration out of high-cost cities and into the suburbs continuing, facilitated by technology and remote work opportunities. 

In terms of various segments, it sees less opportunity in Industrial properties due to high prices and indications of a supply glut and lower occupancy levels. It sees office properties as continuing to struggle given unfavorable secular trends. Specifically, it recommends staying away from older office properties which were built for a different time and workforce.

Finsum: Cohen & Steers believes that private real estate is near the bottom, and that buyers at these levels will be rewarded in the long-term. 

With a strong recovery in fixed income over the past couple of months, fixed income fund managers are looking to generate inflows from the nearly $6 trillion that is sitting in money market funds. Some portions will certainly move into fixed income especially if interest rates start to move lower, and investors look to move further out on the curve to take advantage of still attractive yields.

Due to this, active fixed income funds delivered their biggest monthly returns in decades, leading to a surge of inflows. Recent economic data and chatter from FOMC officials have also been supportive of the asset class.

The challenge for managers is the explosion in active fixed income funds over the last few years, leading to price wars for market share and consolidation. Many are from the largest asset managers like Vanguard, State Street, and Blackrock, which have very low costs. Funds that aren’t able to sufficiently attract inflows over this period will only face more difficulties in the future in remaining viable. 

According to Rich Kushel, the head of Blackrock’s portfolio management group, “We are in a winner-takes-a-lot moment. If you’re truly adding real alpha, there will always be a place for you in this industry. For the folks who haven’t, you might as well buy [the benchmark].”

Finsum: There is nearly $6 trillion on the sidelines. Some of this will move into fixed income especially if rates start dropping. There will be intense competition among active funds to be a recipient of these inflows. 

Vanguard is launching 2 new ETFs giving investors exposure to the municipal bond market. The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEI) and the Vanguard California Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEC) launched on the CBOE BZX Exchange and are designed to offer targeted exposure to certain segments of the muni market with an emphasis on quality and yield. 

Both also have low expense ratios of 0.08%, making them among the least costly within the muni fixed income category. The intermediate-focused, tax-exempt ETF is particularly timely given expectations that interest rates will decline in 2024 due to a dovish Fed and weakening economic outlook. Thus, many investors are looking to lock in yields at these levels by moving out from the short-end into the intermediate and longer-end of the curve. 

In addition to quality and generous yields, municipal bonds also have tax benefits. While VTEI is designed to appeal to a wider swathe of investors, VTEC is for investors who want exposure to California municipal debt. The yield generated from this ETF is tax exempt at the federal and state level for California residents while also prioritizing credit quality. 

Finsum: Vanguard is launching 2 intermediate-term, municipal bond ETFs that offer investors tax benefits in addition to income and quality.  

The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College recently completed a study which investigated why annuities are under owned despite the benefits it provides for retirees. The findings are particularly interesting for financial advisors given this wide gap and persistent challenge. 

The study queried investors with more than $100,000 in financial assets who are in or near retirement. About half of the respondents indicated some willingness to buy an annuity at current rates, while only 12% actually are invested in one. 

Interestingly, the study also found that a lack of liquidity or the inability to pass on an annuity as an asset to heirs were not cited as reasons to not purchase an annuity. Instead, the major factor was a lack of knowledge of the product and how to buy one. Some who were more familiar with the product had a negative perception of hidden costs and performance issues.

According to the authors of the study, the reluctance to buy one stems mostly from psychological reasons. Advisors should endeavor to provide more detailed knowledge about these products including the mechanics of how they work in order to increase comfort levels. Then, they should share an action plan of how to actually buy an annuity. 

Finsum: Most retirees acknowledge the benefits of owning an annuity and self-report a desire to invest in one. Yet only 12% of retirees own an annuity despite the benefits. Some research on this gap came up with some interesting findings. 

Cerulli Associates is forecasting that total assets under management in separately managed accounts (SMAs) will exceed $2 trillion in assets this year. 2023 saw asset growth of 12%, and the firm sees a 15% increase this year. It identifies growth in standalone SMAs in addition to unified managed accounts (UMAs) as key drivers of this trend.   

According to Scott Smith, the director of advice relationships at Cerulli, SMAs allow for more customization of portfolios to achieve specific aims such as tax management or value-aligned investing. He also acknowledges that technology has made SMAs accessible and practical for a much wider swathe of the investing universe. 

Previously, an SMA would be too complicated and costly due to tax and regulatory requirements to make sense for smaller accounts. A decade ago, SMAs were only available for clients with millions to invest. Now, they are available to clients with minimums of $100,000 in some cases. 

The growth of these accounts comes at the expense of traditional brokerages. A key difference is that advisors who use SMAs receive compensation from clients’ portfolio values rather than trading commissions which can create bad incentives. 

Finsum: Separately managed accounts are forecast to exceed $2 trillion in client assets this year. These are typically fee-based and allow for more personalization than investing through a brokerage where revenue is generated through trading commissions.

The combination of tighter money and falling valuations have led private equity sales of portfolio companies to their lowest levels since 2009. Now with some signs of thawing in markets, private equity firms are looking to exit positions and return money to investors.

It’s led to a negative cycle for the industry. The lack of exits has adversely impacted investors’ willingness to pledge money for new funds which has hampered the industry’s ability to make deals. 

According to Per Franzen, the head of private capital for Europe and North America at EQT AB, “Private equity players have to face reality at some point. They need to invest remaining capital and go back to the market to raise new funds, which means a need to drive exits and improve distributions.” Reportedly, some big deals are on the horizon such as Hellman & Friedman looking to sell its energy data platform, Enervus, KKR exiting car park operator, Q-Park, and Carlyle finding a buyer for luxury watch parts manufacturer, Acrotec Group

Another consideration is upcoming elections which could complicate efforts to exit positions. This increases the urgency to make moves in the first half of the year. There are also expectations that private equity could be looking to take advantage of any dislocations or discounts as the industry has $1.4 trillion in cash on the sidelines. 

Finsum: Private equity firms are looking to exit positions in the coming months in order to return cash to investors. 

In 2024, the major market narrative has certainly shifted from whether the Fed will cut or hike to when and how much the Fed will cut. According to Steve Laipply, BlackRock’s Global Co-Head of Bond ETFs, it’s a good time to lock in yields. Currently, investors can achieve yields of 4% in low-risk, diversified bond funds which is quite attractive relative to recent history. 

During the previous cycle, investors would have to buy riskier high-yield bonds to achieve such income. Overall, he believes that investors have been overly risk averse during this tightening cycle, and most are underexposed to the asset class. Despite the recent rally, there are plenty of opportunities to capture generous yields with lower levels of risk. Further, fixed income would benefit if the economy weakened further, and inflation continues to lose steam. 

While investors can get even higher yields in the front-end of the curve or with certificates of deposit, Laipply doesn’t see this as a prudent approach given underlying macroeconomic trends, and the Fed’s dovish tilt in the new year. He recommends that investors choose a diversified, broad bond fund like the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF or an active fund like the Blackrock Flexible Income Fund.

Finsum: According to Steve Laipply, Blackrock’s Global Co-head of Bond ETFs, investors should lock in yields given the rising chance of a recession, slowing inflation, and a dovish Fed in 2024.

Currently, fixed income investors can lock in yields that are in-line with the average, historical return in equity markets. According to David Leduc, the CEO, Insight Investment North America, this is a major reason we are in a new ‘golden age’ for bonds. 

Another reason to be bullish on the asset class is that most funds are deployed via passive strategies. This has increased liquidity and decreased transaction costs, while also leading to more inefficiencies which astute active managers can capitalize upon. 

Leduc believes that fixed income benchmarks are inherently flawed given that indexes are weighted based on debt issuance. The end result is that passive fixed income investors are overexposed to the most indebted companies.

In contrast, active managers can achieve alpha through careful selection in terms of value, credit quality, and duration. While passive funds invest in a relatively small slice of the fixed income universe, active managers have much more latitude in terms of securities to better optimize portfolios in terms of risk and return. One constraint for active managers is that some strategies are successful but can’t necessarily be scaled. Many err by simply sticking to duration positioning which increases near-term volatility.

Finsum: It’s a golden age for fixed income with bonds offering equity-like returns. Here’s why investors should favor active strategies especially as the risk of a recession grows.