(Rome)

In a very interesting, or maybe offensive, release, the Vatican has just put out commentary from the Pope which criticizes financial advice. In a bulletin called “Considerations for an ethical discernment regarding some aspects of the present economic-financial system”, the Pope appears to criticize advisors who are not fiduciaries, listing among its “morally questionable” activities, “a failure from a due impartiality in offering instruments of saving, which, compared with some banks, the product of others would suit better the needs of the clients.

FINSUM: We have no problem at all with fiduciary advice, but we think it is very close-minded when anyone broadly calls non-fiduciary advice immoral.

(New York)

A lot of advisors have been under pressure to cut their fees. Pressure from competition, both digital and human, has reportedly put downward pressure on the fees advisors feel they can charge. However, Barron’s has put out a piece arguing that advisors should not cut their fees. The reason why stems from the results of a survey which found that advisors who lowered their fees actually brought in less assets and experienced less revenue growth than when they left fees higher. An industry commentator summarized the situation this way, saying “That supports something we’ve seen, frankly, for 15 years, which is, clients don’t leave because of price; they leave because of service issues”.

FINSUM: We think this is a bit of a misleading survey, at least if you buy the “services issues” theory. The reason why is that it is only advisors who have service issues that are cutting fees, which means the lower asset growth does not really have to do with fees, it has to do with a problem with the advisor.

(New York)

While markets have been doing a little better of late, investors may be looking for safe stocks that could perform well. Well, if that is the case, look no further than three old-time consumer goods companies that look ripe for outperformance. Coca-cola, PepsiCo, and P&G all look set to thrive and are available at a bargain. On the back of a slew of industry factors, consumer goods stocks are down by over 12% this year. However, the three stocks mentioned are solid dividend producers and seem likely to provide strong earnings growth, making a 10% total return for the year look likely.

FINSUM: 4% dividend yields with good top-line revenue growth for rock solid stocks seems like a pretty attractive proposition to us.

(New York)

One of the pioneers of smart beta investing has just gone on the record tearing down the concept. A long time quant strategist, Vincent Deluard, who helped build early smart beta funds, has lost faith in the strategy as he has seen fund providers use statistics to disingenuously prove all manner of strategies using selective back-testing. Deluard even built model portfolios to show how “dumb” constructions could lead to good results, and “smart” constructions could lead to poor results.

FINSUM: We don’t think smart beta is necessarily “smart” or “dumb”. In the end, these are really just strategies that are only as “good” as the market circumstances they are applied to. Smart and dumb is ultimately about the buyer of the funds.

(Washington)

The fiduciary rule saga presses on. Just when it looked like it was all over and the DOL had finally avoided its own rule, the court battle is not over. A new group of state attorney generals has just asked the to be allowed to appeal the fifth circuit court’s ruling against the DOL rule. California, Oregon, and New York have all asked for a rehearing of the court’s May 2nd decision to deny their request to step in as defendant. In their appeal, the states said “The federal government is no longer pursuing this appeal … Given that posture, the exceptional importance of the issues, and the grave harm the states will suffer as a result of the panel opinion — billions of dollars in lost retirement income to their residents and tens of millions of dollars in lost tax revenue — the states respectfully request that the court reconsider the decision”.

FINSUM: This is dragging on so long it is even getting annoying to report on! This does not seem likely to be granted, but one can never be sure.

(New York)

Morgan Stanley has just put out a very bold prediction. The investment bank has picked a stock which it says will have a $1 tn market cap within a year. That stock is Microsoft. The stock current has a cap of around $740 bn and has risen more than 40% in the last year. But the big catalyst for a move higher is the success of its cloud computing division, Azure. Morgan Stanley summarizes its view this way, saying “Revenue drivers including Azure (Microsoft emerging as a public cloud winner), data center (share gains and positive pricing trends), Office 365 (base growth and per user pricing lift) and the integration of LinkedIn should drive durable double-digit revenue growth over the next three years”.

FINSUM: While bullish, this does not seem at all unlikely.

(New York)

Investors beware. US equity prices now seem to be entirely at the mercy of bond yields. Stocks have consistently struggled as yields have moved higher, and today Treasury yields seem to have broken an important threshold. Treasuries traded as high as 3.13% this morning, the highest level in seven years. Stock markets unsurprisingly fell. The markets were initially spooked by a solid US retail sales report that seemed to indicate the Fed might hike more aggressively than expected.

FINSUM: Yields definitely seem to have a strongly upward trend at the moment and have definitively broken out of that 2.9% band they had been locked in for a few weeks. Next stop 3.50%?

(Los Angeles)

US real estate has been humming along quite nicely for several years. The market has been so steady as to be considered in a goldilocks period. Rates were low, lending standards slowly slipped, and the market kept rolling with high demand. However, that period may finally now have come to an end as mortgage rates are rising quickly. Mortgage rates just hit a seven year high, which could mean demand for housing softens as borrowers are unwilling to pay higher rates. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage now sits at 4.61%. Rates bottomed in 2012 at an average rate of 3.31%.

FINSUM: We think this is definitely going to have an effect on mortgage demand, especially on mortgages in urban areas, where amounts tend to be larger.

(New York)

There is a little known recession predictor that has done a good job historically of predicting when the economy is about to go into reverse: conception rate. Based on analysis from 1989 to 2016, a period with over 100 million US births, three economists have found that conception rate consistently dropped just prior to recessions. Conception rate is different than birth rate in that it measures the decision to have a baby, not the actual birth of one. The economists found that months or quarters before a recession, the decision to have a baby declined.

FINSUM: So conception rate and birth rate are different, but obviously very linked. So, what is scary to find out is that the US birth rate just hit its lowest level since 1987. Reason to worry?

(Houston)

Oil prices have risen spectacularly over the last year, with Brent crude now trading above $80 per barrel. However, the question for investors is what to do about the rise. Have they already missed the gains? Additionally, oil has the complication of being difficult to invest in directly because of the cost of rolling over futures positions. Therefore, the best way to take a position in oil markets is through several ETFs. The tickers to look at span from those covering major oil companies to those more weighted towards E&P companies. Here are some of the funds: VDE, XLE, IXC, IYE, XOP, OIH, and USO.

FINSUM: We suspect that exploration and production companies will gain the most from recent price rises as their businesses will be most directly impacted by gains (just like they were most hurt in the downturn).