(New York)

Nobody in the industry wants to hear it, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t true. Think Advisor has just published an article arguing that the DOL rule may still pose a comeback and that RIAs need to keep the DOL-guided compliance procedures they developed in place. The argument is that though the DOL let the May 1st appeal deadline to its Fifth Circuit Court loss pass, it still has until June 13th to escalate the case to the US Supreme Court. If it does so, a stay in the Fifth Circuit Court’s ruling is likely, meaning the rule would technically still be in place until the Supreme Court delivers its verdict.

FINSUM: Obviously no one knows what the DOL will do, especially because the motivation to escalate this seems to be lacking. That said, it still has the choice and so advisors must keep their compliance policies in place.

(New York)

Investors beware, US stocks may be in for a real summer storm. On the surface things have been looking better. Despite a week in which many geopolitical events went wrong (e.g. trade war, Trump and North Korea, Italian bonds/government), the markets stayed strong. However, underneath the positive surface, there is some real bearishness. The average stock in the S&P 500 is underperforming the market as a whole by almost a whole percent. The S&P 500 is up 3% this year, but the average stock has gained just 2.1%, showing that market breadth has narrowed.

FINSUM: We do not think the current market breadth figures show much of anything, but then again, we are more concerned about the overall economy than the signals the market is sending.

(Rome)

We do not cover too much European news. This is mostly because our readers don’t pay much attention when we do. However, we thought the crisis going on in Italy warranted special attention. Stocks are plummeting and bond yields soaring on the back of a political uproar over the future of leadership. In particular, two big parties (i.e. the Five Star Movement and the League) who are leading in the polls both propose lavish tax cuts and spending increases which look on the surface to possibly lead Italy to a default, which has bond investors and the European establishment worried.

FINSUM: We feel for Italy, we really do. We think the country has really been crippled by the Euro and now there is no easy way out. We expect positions will moderate, but this could cause some volatility.

(Washington)

Brokers who want to publish more of their own research will now find it easier. For the last several years, publishing research on individual funds has been a complicated and risky endeavor for brokers as rules meant some research work could be seen as a sales material, subjecting it to stricter scrutiny. The SEC is harmonizing rules to allow brokers to publish research on ETFs, mutual funds, registered closed-end funds, and business development companies under the same rules that govern other types of research.

FINSUM: This delineation had existed too long and we think this is a good change of rules.

(Washington)

The Trump administration may be on the verge of a large regulatory pullback in wealth management products. In particular, Trump is considering dropping the rule which limits variable annuities. The products have widely been considered too complicated for retail investors and have been limited alongside the DOL rule. Sales of variable annuities fell to $98 bn last year, the lowest figure in two decades.

FINSUM: These products only seem likely to rise again if any fiduciary-type rule disappear. As one advisor put it best, saying “If you are required to put clients’ interests first, they [VAs] almost never make sense”.

(Washington)

In what could be could news for those worried about the Fed hiking us into a recession, one of the Fed’s top leaders has just come out with a very dovish tone. St. Louis Fed chief Bullard says the Fed needs to slow its pace of rate hikes to preserve its credibility. “Inflation expectations in the U.S. remain somewhat low, suggesting that further normalization may not be necessary to keep inflation near target”. He suggests that the best policy going forward may be to freeze hikes.

FINSUM: One of the things that has worried us about the Fed is that they seem to be viewing rate hikes as some sort of automatic pre-determined path towards normalization rather than basing it on actual inflation numbers.

(Washington)
The DOL rule is on the way out and the SEC best interest rule is on the way in, but that did not keep the SEC from taking a parting shot at the DOL. Outgoing SEC commissioner Michael Piwowar, long a critic of the fiduciary rule, said yesterday “I think it was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad rule … It set up an unworkable, impossible set of standards for people to comply with. The Department of Labor couldn’t have cared what we thought and what you all thought, didn’t listen to Finra, didn’t listen to state regulators or the insurance regulators, and went forward with a rule that proved to be unworkable”. Piwowar is expected to leave the SEC on July 7th following his resignation.

FINSUM: We could not think of a more comprehensive critique of the DOL rule. We think the SEC really “gets” it.

(New York)

There have been some serious warnings about real estate from reputable sources lately, but not much data to support them. To this point, most fears have been centered around how rising rates might hurt the market, but none of that had emerged in the data, until now. A new US housing report has just showed that sales of existing US homes fell 2.5% in April. Low inventory and higher prices seem to be putting a dampening effect on buyers, says the Wall Street Journal.

FINSUM: This is a worrying stat for us, and its importance is elevated by the fact that the figure comes from April, which is part of the all-important spring home-buying season. The next few months of data will be very important.

(New York)

Now might be a good time to buy dividend stocks, especially if you think rates and the economy are likely to stagnate. But even if not, having solid income stocks is always a key feature of a portfolio. With that in mind Barron’s has come up with a list of 12 income stocks with good cash flow and very solid fundamentals, all of whom are supposed to see growing cash flow in 2019. Some of the names cited include: Kraft Heinz, Target, Merck, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Eli Lilly, and Omnicom.

FINSUM: This is a diverse list from across different sectors which includes a lot of companies with strong profiles. All of the stocks have of a dividend yield of at least 2.5%.

(Washington)

Advisors all over the country are wondering about a simple question—why the SEC did not use the word “fiduciary” in its new best interest rule. The answer to the question had remained obscure until this week, when SEC chairman Clayton answered it at a conference following a question by FINRA CEO Robert Cook. Clayton said that the new rule is “definitely a fiduciary principle, just like the fiduciary duty in the investment advisor space is a fiduciary principle”, but continuing that calling standards for both brokers and advisors “fiduciary” and “then defining them would not make it clear that the relationship models were different”.

FINSUM: So basically the SEC avoided using the word so as not to muddle the difference between the relationships of brokers to clients vis-a-vis advisors to clients.