(New York)

They had been paused for a couple of months, but in the last week, things started to change. Treasury yields once again broke above the 3% barrier last Wednesday. The number is a psychologically important and has proved a stalwart level for the yield to breakthrough. It did so earlier this year, before quickly falling back into the 2.8% range. Yields seemed to be pushed higher by a sharp rise in Japanese bonds yields following action by the BOJ.

FINSUM: Treasury yields are hard to handle right now. On the one hand, the economy looks fantastic, which should send them higher, but at the same time the Fed looks hawkish and the risk of recession seems to be rising, which would keep things in check.

(Istanbul)

Emerging markets had a rough first half to the year. Between rising western rates and a trade war, there was not a lot to be happy about in EM assets. Then, a few weeks ago, many sources were saying the bear market was over and it was time for a rally. However, investors need to stay sharp, as EM currencies are still sliding, which will lead to lower growth. Weaker currencies also make it hard to pay back Dollar-denominated debt, which could hurt credit. There are also country-specific issues, like the growing trade battle between Turkey and the US.

FINSUM: There are still a lot of macroeconomic developments moving against EMs, but to be fair, the best rallies start in the darkest hours.

(New York)

No this is not an article about a liquidity mismatch between ETFs and their underlying products, well at east not entirely. The FT has published a new article by an asset management industry insider arguing that to understand the implications of passive investing, one needs to look more broadly than ETFs themselves. In particular, the piece contends that it is the rise of algorithmic trading which is the true danger, as the technologies which now dominate market trading are agnostic of human-based warnings and insights, and instead simply trade on momentum. This means there are and will be dangerous run-ups and losses in shares. The article points out that only 10% of equity trading now occurs from traditional discretionary human traders. Overall, the piece warns that the current market structure runs very large risks of volatility getting out of hand, and ETFs being forced to dump way more shares than the market can absorb, compounding losses.

FINSUM: This argument is what we would refer to as a “snowball” risk, as it basically discusses the multiple levels of knock-on effects from an initial jump in volatility, which would then be followed by algorithmic selling, then ETF selling, and the cycle continues.

(New York)

It was long awaited, but still hit the market like a hammer. It was one of those things that you can prepare for over a long period, yet are inevitably shocked when it arrives. In this case, it was the long-awaited release of a zero fee index fund. Fidelity was the first to do it, and while it was anticipated, the move is likely to have far-reaching effects on the industry. For instance, one of the big changes is that large index funds will likely no longer pay licensing fees to the indexes themselves. At the same time though, indexes will proliferate for more narrow and niche areas designed to track all manner of themes. Fees will likely continue to fall, even on the more complex products.

FINSUM: Asset management is seeing a very serious race to the bottom, which is reflected in share prices lately. Two thoughts come to mind. Firstly, those with huge scale will be the big winners as the industry grows more consolidated. Secondly, how long before retirement funds seeing a reckoning and a big move out of expensive products (they are paying an average of 61 bp in fees)?

(San Francisco)

Tech stocks have two very unappealing characteristics right now. They are at once both very expensive and increasingly vulnerable, as evidenced by their major selloff over the last week and a half. However, there are cheap tech shares out there, and Barron’s wants to share them with you. The five cheapest tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are Micron Technology, Western Digital, Seagate Technology, Lam Research, and Applied Materials. Their P/E ratios range from a low of 5.2x to a high of 11.9x.

FINSUM: Just a note of caution—these stocks were not selected to be good value, they were presented solely on the basis of valuation, so the multiples may be very representative of the quality of their businesses.

(San Francisco)

Facebook had an absolutely historic plunge last week, losing $120 bn of market cap in an afternoon. It has not fared so well since either, as many of its tech brethren have also seen big losses (like Twitter and Netflix). There are also mounting fears about a fundamentally darker future given the scandals and controversies it has become involved in. All that said, the stock still looks like a buying opportunity, at least according to some Wall Street analysts. The key to playing the company is not to wait for signs of margins and revenue stability. “Many investors prefer to wait for the appearance of margin stability … We understand this, but stocks tend to bottom and recover well ahead of margins and trade at much higher multiples when they do”, says a stock analyst.

FINSUM: Investors really need to contextualize this loss. Revenue growth rates came in 1% below expectations, leading to a massive loss. We think there is a good buying opportunity here.

New York)

Fidelity made history this week by introducing the first zero fee funds, which will track very broad self-indexed markets. Fidelity’s move is somewhat of a ploy, and definitely a demonstration of scale, as the company has many ways to profit from a customer once it has them in the door. But don’t be fooled, as fees aren’t everything. In fact, there are significant differences in performance even between index trackers of the same benchmark, like the S&P 500, and the differences between them can add up to a whole lot more than the difference in fees. For instance, Schwab and Vanguard already have broad index trackers at 3 and 6 basis points of fees, so hardly a big difference to zero, especially if their performance is better.

FINSUM: “Zero” definitely changes things, but once you are in the sub-15 bp fee category, performance is going to make a bigger difference than fees.

(Portland)

Retail and consumer stocks have been all over the map over the last couple of years. With digital disruption happening across the industry and consumer tastes changing, it is a hard space to figure out. However, an old stalwart looks like a good pick right now—Nike. The company has had its ups and downs over the last few years as it popularity ebbed, but it is back in a big way with a new distribution model of going direct-to-consumer. Morgan Stanley sums up the company this way, saying it is “positioned to take share in the high-growth, global activewear market as well as increase profitability, which should make it one of the highest growth consumer names and one of the few to benefit from the shift to e-commerce”.

FINSUM: We have been saying for over a year that Nike would prove to be a good bet. It had a couple years of competing poorly with Adidas and Under Armor, but it seems to be back with a bang.

(New York)

Boom looks ready to turn to bust in the real estate market. While those paying attention will already know that commercial real estate looks past its peak, and residential real estate has just started to show signs of weakness, what US investors may not realize is that the phenomenon is global, and that fact is more important than ever. Because of the rise of the global wealthy and their transient lifestyles, global real estate markets have become more correlated, and that means additional bad news for US home prices. All across the world, from London, to Sydney, to Beijing, to New York, urban home prices are weakening as inventories rise and the sector switches from a seller’s to a buyer’s market.

FINSUM: The real estate market used to be less correlated, but the huge boom in urban real estate over the last decade means that all areas will probably come down together too. To recap, US home purchases have been falling at the same time as inventories have finally begun rising. It seems like a rough period is coming.

(Boston)

The moment that many asset managers have been dreading has finally arrived. Fidelity announced yesterday that it was slashing prices on many of its funds, and crucially, offering two new index mutual funds with no fees and no minimums. Thus, the Rubicon has finally been crossed—the first broad index funds with zero fees, and no minimums. Many top asset management stocks fell considerably on the news. Remember that asset managers can still make money on funds with zero fees—through stock lending—but they need considerable scale to make that money meaningful.

FINSUM: It was only a matter of time before this happened. We expect Vanguard will follow suit quite soon, as will BlackRock, as lower fees have been by far the biggest selling point in the market for years.