(Washington)

After a long and quite public back and forth about the potential for an interview, are President Trump and Robert Mueller close to meeting? Trump’s team has apparently responded to Mueller’s request for interview with a counteroffer on the terms. The two parties have been in discussions since at least January. The basic core of the counteroffer is that Trump is happy to talk about collusion with Russia, but not about obstruction of justice. Though Rudy Giuliani, who is on Trump’s legal team, said they did leave the door open to possible questions on obstruction.

FINSUM: This seems like a positive development. It appears like it would be good for all sides to have this investigation finished once and for all, and a sit down with Trump could potentially resolve things.

(Washington)

In what seems to have amounted to the “shot heard round the world” of financial markets, this week Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, tweeted that he may take the company private at $420 and that he already had the funding secured. As expected, this sent markets into a tizzy, with the stock gaining sharply as it moved towards the stated price. Now, however, the SEC has announced it is investigating the legality of the tweet, and is investigating the particular statements made. The SEC maintains that such a statement should have been made in an SEC filing rather than a tweet, and it wants to investigate if funding was actually secured. If not, it could mean Musk was intentionally misleading the market.

FINSUM: Musk has been on a very rocky path lately, and this SEC inquiry is not going to help. That said, the idea of taking Tesla private still seems like a good one to us.

(New York)

Morgan Stanley has put out a warning about the worryingly declining breadth of the stock market this year. The bank says that “Fewer stocks are carrying the load of the market, a sign of exhaustion and, in our view, a bad signal for further price gains”. The bank appears to be quite correct. According to the article “Bloomberg points out that Amazon.com, Netflix and Microsoft accounted for 71% percent of the S&P’s gains through early July. Along with Apple, Alphabet and Facebook, they accounted for 98% percent of the gains”.

FINSUM: Honestly that could not be a more worrying sign on breadth. 98% of gains from from 6 stocks. That does not spell widespread strength. However, earnings have been good for the last month (when the reporting period for these stats ended), so gains may have been better lately.

(New York)

Be careful of sketchy deal solicitations that are floating around the market right now. Apparently there are fake securities firms, either posing as real ones or using aliases, who are soliciting deal interest in the advisor market. Many times the fake deals will cite endorsement from the SEC or other regulators, often fictitious ones (e.g. The Bureau of Financial & Protection Services). The SEC itself issued the warning to investors about the phony deals.

FINSUM: Any advisor will know these are fake and that the SEC does not endorse deals, but many clients could fall for these scams.

(New York)

We became concerned for our advisor readers today when we read an article in the FT warning that many trading platforms are at serious risk of hacking. The article says that many trading platforms, such Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, and Interactive Brokers, secure data in an unencrypted or partially unencrypted format, leaving them highly vulnerable to hacking. If a hacker got your password, they would be able to do anything you could on the platform. Generally speaking larger brokers had safer platforms than smaller ones, and both Schwab and TD Ameritrade emphasize that they are making progress on the issue.

FINSUM: This seems like a major risk that has gone ignored. We wanted to make sure to warn our readers as we are aware that many of you use Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade.

(Washington)

Okay, here is an honest question for our readers that we are debating internally. Did the DOL rule face more criticism, or is the SEC’s Best Interest rule taking more heat? While it initially seemed that only investor protection groups disliked the SEC’s Regulation BI, coalitions of brokers are now railing against it too. Amazingly, both brokers and investor protection groups agree—the SEC’s rule is too vague and confusing. Brokers say the rule is so vague they don’t even know how to comply, while investor groups say it is so weak it won’t change current practices (these are effectively the same argument!). “This will only serve to harm the brokerage model and limit choice for those investors who prefer the brokerage advice model”, says a broker group.

FINSUM: Honestly, we think the current iteration of the SEC rule is all but dead. The comment window closed yesterday, and we expect a serious redraft.

(New York)

Elon Musk shocked the world and the market yesterday. After several weeks of turbulent rhetoric and behavior, the CEO yesterday announced that he was seeking to take Tesla private. Musk said bluntly, “Am considering taking Tesla private at $420”, continuing “Funding secured”. The stock was trading at only $356 when he announced his intentions. There are three ways doing so would benefit Musk and Tesla. Firstly, they wouldn’t need to do anymore public equity funding issues. Secondly, he would not need to face anymore pesky questions from analysts. Thirdly, doing so would stick it to the short-sellers that Musk hates.

FINSUM: If we take a step back and examine it, Tesla does seem like the sort of company which might be better off private at this point. Just as Uber has stayed private while it has burned mountains of capital, Tesla might be wise to follow that lead.

(New York)

If you are a strong advisor looking for a change, Deutsche Bank may be interested in speaking with you. At least that is what Deutsche Bank is saying. The US wealth management arm of the German bank says it wants to growth the ranks of its wealth advisors by 25% this year. According to the head of Americas wealth management there, the orders from the top are to “grow, grow, grow”, adding that “We’re getting dollar investment going into the unit for headcount . . . there’s great access to the management board.”

FINSUM: This is a big initiative considering that the only European brand to have any foothold in US wealth management is UBS. The other big names are all American.

(New York)

There are a lot of articles discussing data points which can help investors predict markets. Most have some value in them (though not all). In this vein, the Wall Street Journal has done some digging to assemble the eight best historical market signals. The first thing to know is that all eight predictors, each of which has a great track record, show that market returns over the next decade will be below average. Even the most bullish of the group says that returns will be way below what they have been over the last decade. Some of the eight predictors include the Household Equity Allocation, the Q Ratio, the Buffett Indicator, the CAPE, and the Dividend Yield. The Household Equity Allocation has historically been the most accurate, as households tend to have the highest allocation to stocks right before a crash.

FINSUM: That is quite a data set stacking up against the market. We expect a rough market and a recession within 18 months, but the gains until then could be good.

(New York)

We do not cover Bitcoin very much, but we thought it would be worthwhile to give an update today, especially as advisors may have some clients who are very interested in the area. Most are aware that the cryptocurrency has plunged from late last year, but had been enjoying a minor rally of late. That has come to end abrupt end though, capped off by another SEC rejection/delay of a Bitcoin ETF. The SEC delayed a decision on a new Bitcoin ETF until the end of September, which sent the market plunging ~8%. Bitcoin is now trading around $6,500, way down from its $20,000 peak.

FINSUM: This newest Bitcoin delay is more worrisome as it was the most promising proposal on the table. The proposal, in part from top ETF provider Van Eck, was to actually hold Bitcoin instead of Bitcoin futures, which one would think would alleviate some of the SEC’s worries. We think this will eventually make it through, and when it does, Bitcoin might become a more mainstream asset class.