(Detroit)

An absolute nightmare befell the auto sector yesterday. While the market has been increasingly concerned about the effect of Trump’s metal tariffs and the counter-tariffs from trading partners, yesterday’s meltdown was sparked by poor earnings. It started with GM and Fiat Chrysler, both of whom got walloped on weaker than expected earnings. Then Ford came in with an $11 bn restructuring plan that seemed to contradict the promised $25 bn of cuts it had previously announced. What was odd about the numbers is that they come when the economy is doing quite well. “To have a quarter like this is striking … Every time they turn over a rock, they find more problems”, says one auto market analyst.

FINSUM: Between looming tariffs and weak underlying sales, car companies seemed to be facing a definite reversal of fortunes after several years of good performance.

(New York)

Alongside rising rates and yields, accelerating dividends are a nice feature to have right now. The S&P 500’s dividend growth over the last five years has averaged 13.4%. However, every stock on this list has seen growth north of 20%. The five stocks, which come from quite varied sectors, includes UnitedHealth Group, AO Smith, Zoetis, Mastercard, and Nvidia.

FINSUM: The only catch for this group is that dividend yields, on average, are low, with UnitedHealth Group having the highest at 1.4%, well behind the average S&P 500 yield. The advantage, however, is that a stock with strongly rising dividends is more likely to see capital appreciation.

(San Francisco)

Yesterday was an absolutely monstrous one to be an investor in Facebook. In what will likely go down as a history-making day for the company, Facebook shares dropped a whopping 20% yesterday, equating to more than $100 bn of value lost. The huge losses were sparked by weaker than expected revenue growth as well as flat or falling user bases. That sent the stock down 7%. However, it was the guidance provided on a conference call that really spelled doom. The company’s CFO said that he expected weak revenue growth to continue, while costs were expected to rise 50-60% this year.

FINSUM: The big rise in costs is coming because Facebook is hiring 20,000 staff to increase cybersecurity. The need to do so does not bode well for the stock or the tech sector generally.

(New York)

The S&P 500 experienced a correction earlier this year, and since February, has been stuck in a rut. While the declines were not terribly deep, the doldrums were very long lasting. In fact, this was the longest correction (without a rebound or a fall into a bear market) since 1984. That meant the market was in correction for 115 straight sessions.

FINSUM: The market has finally regained some momentum, but it feels odd that stocks have been gaining in the face of largely negative trade war news. Then again, stocks love to climb a wall of worry.

(New York)

There have been a lot of fears about the junk bond market both over the last few years and in recent months. Many worry what a rising rate period would mean for the sector. However, the bigger worry might actually be a recession. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has recently put out a report analyzing the sector, and they highlight a potentially big worry. As many know, over the last decade, companies have gorged on BBB rated bonds (the lowest rung of investment grade), issuing trillions worth. However, the big risk is that in a recession, default rates will surge, profits will fall, and many of those bonds will be downgraded into junk status. When that occurs, many investments funds will be obligated to sell them because of mandates, which could cause a massive exodus and big losses.

FINSUM: The giant BBB market, which has been the superstar of the high yield sector since the Crisis, seems like it might be poised for a serious rough patch come the next recession.

(Washington)

President Trump may have just ended a major part of the current trade war. All eyes have been focused on the President’s meeting with European Commission head Juncker today in Washington, an encounter that could spark trade fireworks between the US and EU. Most have said they have little hope of a positive outcome. Now, that might be entirely changed as the president last night tweeted out what must be the most hopeful statement of the whole trade war. He said “The European Union is coming to Washington tomorrow to negotiate a deal on Trade. I have an idea for them … Both the U.S. and the E.U. drop all Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies!”.

FINSUM: It would be absolutely amazing to go from an escalating trade war to a US-EU free trade panacea. It seems unlikely to happen, but it could be a positive sign of collaboration.

(Washington)

The trade war appears to be headed down a poor path ever more quickly, and in response, global stocks are seeing losses. The US is continuing to make threats about ever larger tariffs on its trading partners, and Trump is poised for a tense meeting with European Commission head Juncker in Washington today. The president yesterday referred to tariffs as the “greatest”, and the US put forth a $12 bn support package for American farmers hurt by tariffs.

FINSUM: Stocks don’t know what to do, as this trade war is growing increasingly difficult to handicap. Add to that the uncertain over global central bank policy, and we have a very nervy mix for markets.

(Caracas)

Investors will know that the stock market is supposed to be a good inflation hedge, but precious few developed market investors will have ever seen how a market (or people) actually reacts during a period of heavy inflation. For a practical example, look no further than the misery that has befallen Venezuela. Inflation currently stands at 46,000% and is expected to accelerate to 1,000,000%. The government’s printing presses can’t keep up. But how has the stock market performed? The country’s benchmark index is up 73,000% in the last year. Wealthy Venezuelans are using it like a bank, buying stocks to deposit cash, and selling them when they need a withdrawal.

FINSUM: This is something you read about but rarely see in practice. It is an absolute shame what is going on in Venezuela, but a good lesson about the interconnection between stocks and inflation in practice.

(New York)

One of the big conundrums in markets is that while it is practically gospel to diversify into a wide range of securities and asset classes, some of the best and most famous investors do the exact opposite. As evidence, just consider the investing styles of Warren Buffett, George Soros, or Bernard Baruch. Forbes has published a piece examining this seeming disconnect, and provides some interesting insights. According to Buffett, “Diversification is a protection against ignorance … [It] makes very little sense for those who know what they’re doing”. Baruch adds, “It is unwise to spread one’s funds over too many different securities … Time and energy are required to keep abreast of the forces that may change the value of a security. While one can know all there is to know about a few issues, one cannot possibly know all one needs to know about a great many issues”.

FINSUM: Okay, a couple of points here. Firstly, those investors can afford the big losses that can occur with a concentrated portfolio. And secondly, since they invest for a living, they have the time to devote to deeply understanding each of their holdings. For the 99.99% of people not in that group, diversification has major benefits.

(Washington)

Rumors of former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen turning on the president have been stirring for weeks. Now it appears to have happened, as CNN has published a recording (which it says is from Cohen) of President Trump and Cohen discussing the “financing” of a payment to a former Playboy model. The conversation was apparently about buying the playmate’s story, a story which involved an alleged affair with Trump in 2006.

FINSUM: In our view this will likely just cause another minor firestorm. Trump doesn’t say anything really shocking or incriminating in the recording, so we don’t imagine this will have any significant impact.