(New York)

A big bank has just gone on the record warning investors that a bear market is likely to start by the end of the year. So long as the Fed hikes twice more this year, which it is widely expected to do, a key bear market indicator will have been tripped. That indicator is the so-called “neutral level for interest rates”. The indicator preceded both the 2000 and 2007 bear markets. The idea is that the Fed will raise interest rates above their “neutral” level—the level at which they neither stimulate nor hold back the economy—and in doing so, will bring on a recession and bear market. The observation comes from bank Stifel, which summarized their view as “Weighing stability versus mandate, we believe the Fed has no realistic option other than to follow its projected dot-plot path, eventually revealing the speculative excesses created in the past decade”.

FINSUM: When you combine this indicator with the near yield curve inversion, it paints a very bleak picture indeed.

(New York)

There is a lot of turmoil going on in emerging markets right now. So much so that many are now considering it a full crisis. So far, though, the problems have yet to materially impact US markets. However, Barron’s explains that there is a mechanism through which EMs could cause trouble for the US and the rest of western markets. Because the trade war with China continues to escalate, the country’s yuan may devalue significantly, hurting all EMs. If this happens, the ripple effects through the global economy might be very strong. India and Mexico seem to be the safest EM destinations at present.

FINSUM: China is big enough to bring down the whole world economy, so the real threat here is the trade war first, and then how EMs compound that problem.

(San Francisco)

Apple is reported to be set unveil some big changes in the coming weeks. In what many see as Apple’s third phase, the company is set to release brand new iPads and watches. If personal computing was phase one, and iPhones were phase two, then phase 3 will be wearables, say analysts. The company has seen sales in those divisions soar recently, and they have slowly stolen wallet share from the iPad’s sales. Accordingly, Apple is putting more resources into wearables, but also debuting a new iPad and trying to redefine its purpose for customers.

FINSUM: The iPad has slowly been shrinking from the limelight at the same time as the Apple Watch and Beats have steadily grown. It is hard for us to imagine that either category will be Apple’s main sales driver in the future.

(New York)

Fidelity made a huge splash in the asset and wealth management world’ about a month ago when it launched the markets first completely free indexed mutual funds, and with no investment minimums. The move sparked big share price losses for other asset managers and seemed to spell doom for the industry. But how have the funds actually performed so far? The answer is well. The pair of funds have taken in almost $1 bn of client money in just a month, which is considered a solid success.

FINSUM: We think this is a good showing for Fidelity, but one of the other issues the zero fee funds have brought up is that there are many other terms of index funds that investors need to pay close attention to. Not just price.

(New York)

Ever since the now infamous “op-ed” about Trump’s inner circle appeared in the New York Times earlier this week, there has been increasing discussion of the 25th amendment, so we thought it would be good to give a quick primer on it. Basically what the amendment allows for is a president’s cabinet to remove them from office if they are deemed “unable to discharge the powers and duties” of the office. The vice president and a majority of the cabinet need to agree in order to remove the president. But if the president protests, it takes a 2/3 majority in Congress to remove the head of state. It has never been used to remove a president and was only ratified in 1963.

FINSUM: Given the likelihood that Trump would protest any move, a 2/3 majority in Congress seems like a massive obstacle for anyone trying to remove the president.

(New York)

New academic analysis has found part of the full cost of the DOL rule on the financial sector. A group of academics analyzed the market cap movements of the top 30 brokerage and fund providers and found that, in aggregate, the DOL rule cost firms $14 bn of market cap. That figure does not include the money spent to prepare for the rule, just changes in share valuation that directly resulted form the rule. However, the same firms have since benefitted strongly from the so-called Trump Effect.

FINSUM: The DOL rule ended up being an enormous waste of time that in hindsight appears to have been doomed from the beginning. We will say that its lasting effect was to bring consciousness of fiduciary duty to the wider public.

(New York)
The last few months have been bleak for the US housing market. There has been a steady stream of negative data showing that the market is definitively slowing. Now a new one is emerging—bank lending is contracting quickly in the space. The fall off is so strong that banks are laying off workers in lending units. Both sources of demand for mortgages—refinancing and new home purchases—have dried up as interest rates and housing prices have risen. July showed the fifth straight month of declining home sales, coming in the time of the year when they should be strongest. Speaking about the state of home prices and mortgage demand, the chief economist at Fannie Mae says, “people are saying, ‘at these prices, and with rates rising, I’ll stay where I am’”.

FINSUM: We believe the US is in for a long winter of falling home prices. We think the market is at a turning point right now where sellers are trying to cling to high prices, but buyers have finally stopped giving in.

(New York)

The Fed looks set for another hike in September, and likely another before the end of the year. That means that fixed income is a very tricky market, as many bonds will likely see losses. So how can one protect their portfolio but still earn reliable income? One option is to buy floating rate bonds. Luckily, there are several funds that can help investors own floating rate bonds. Some of them include the Fidelity Floating Rate High Income (4.36% yield), the iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF, the BlackRock Floating Rate Income Strategies Fund, or the Eaton Vance Floating Rate Income Fund.

FINSUM: We think floating rate bonds seem like a good strategy for the current environment. Just be careful of high credit risk in some of these funds.

(New York)

You wouldn’t usually think of muni bonds when you are looking for juicy yields (at least not investment grade munis). However, if you look further out on the yield curve, there are some very interesting bonds. For instance, there are AAA rated 15-year munis yielding 2.7%, up from 2.2% earlier this year. Comparable two-year munis have just 1.7% yields, representing a 100 basis point spread versus the treasury market’s 29 bp spread. This is the steepest the muni yield curve has been since 2000, which creates opportunity at the long end of the curve.

FINSUM: Most advisors will be aware that even with the currently low yields in munis, the tax exemption for high income clients make the bonds very attractive, so this is just icing on the cake.

(New York)

Those trying to earn defensive income right now should look at stocks with strongly growing dividends. Rising dividends from stable companies seem like a good way to protect capital and earn income in this rising rate era. Accordingly, three companies to look at include Swiss pharma company Novartis (3.5% and growing), Pepsico (3.3% and likely to grow), and tech company Cisco, who business is growing solidly below the radar and yields just above 3%.

FINSUM: These seem like well-thought out picks, especially because some of the dividend growth is speculative, and importantly, will be driven be real operating performance.