(San Francisco)

The market has periodically started to worry about the regulation of the tech industry. For a while that felt a bit premature, but given recent events, it is starting to feel more real. For instance, the FTC has just begun a marathon of hearings, which will run through November, into the state of competition and consumer protection in the digital economy. The hearings are about more than tech though, as they are fundamentally about inequality and worker’s rights across the whole of the economy. The head of the FTC said “In my view, basing antitrust policy and enforcement decisions on an ideological viewpoint (from either the left or the right) is a mistake”.

FINSUM: These hearings seem like the first stage of what might prove to be big changes for anti-trust policy in the US. If changes do happen, we believe they will be much more far-reaching than just for tech.

(New York)

Rates look to be rising quickly. The economy is red hot and the Fed is hawkish, meaning two more rate hikes this year look very likely. With that in mind, investors need to protect themselves from rate risk. That means a lot of sources of income, like dividends stocks and bonds, could become sources of losses. However, fortunately there are numerous ETFs that can help investors earn income while protecting against losses. One such is Pimco’s 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond (HYS). The ETF has a yield approaching 5% and has a duration of just over 2 years, putting it in the low duration category (meaning it has low rate risk).

FINSUM: This seems like a good option if you want to earn high rate-protected income. Given the current rate environment, funds like these should probably be a fixture of most portfolios.

(New York)

JP Morgan just published what could be the most well-documented financial crisis forecast ever written. The bank’s quant team put out a 143-age report chronicling how the next crisis will unfold which features the opinions of almost 50 of Wall Street’s top analysts and strategists. The consensus is that there will be a major “liquidity crisis” with huge selloffs in major asset classes, and no one to step in to buy. The losses will be exacerbated by the shift to passive management and the rise of algorithmic trading. JP Morgan says that the Fed and other central banks may even need to directly buy stocks, and there could even be negative income taxes. The bank thinks the crisis will hit sometime after the first half of 2019, most likely in 2020.

FINSUM: Assessing the validity of these kinds of predictions is always hard. While we have no idea about the timing, or whether this will actually happen, the argument is well thought out and quite logical.

(New York)

Advisors need to prepare themselves for a nasty eventuality that looks like a near certainty when the market next crashes. According to a top wealth management lawyer, there are likely to be a great deal of lawsuits filed by clients against their advisors whenever the next big crash comes. The lawsuits will be focused on claims of reverse churning, or that advisors put client money in fee-baseds account in order to collect fees without offering significant advice or trading. Since switching clients into fee-based accounts (versus commission-based accounts) has been a very common practice over the last several years, the atmosphere is ripe for a massive wave of lawsuits.

FINSUM: This article is worryingly insightful. The big switch to fee-based accounts, which preceded but also corresponded to the DOL rule, might have set up advisors for some major legal headaches in the next downturn.

(New York)

The Fed seems almost certain to hike later this month, as well as in December. Rates heading higher looks like a certainty. So what does that mean for high yielding equity sectors which many Americans rely on for dividend income? The answer is a mixed picture. Pure rate-driven sectors like utilities, real estate, and telecoms will likely be hurt, but high-yielders like healthcare and and consumer staples should hold up better because their businesses can generate a lot of cash that can be returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

FINSUM: Pharma has returned over 12% this year while real estate is just around 2%, showing how the former can outperform in rising rate environments.

(New York)

Fidelity is doubling down on its recent move to offer completely free index funds with no investment minimums. The money manager will launch a pair of new free index funds, one focused on large caps, and the other on the “extended market” (or small and midcaps), in late September. The new free funds are part of Fidelity’s strategy to compete vigorously on pricing to bring in new clients, and then try to earn money from them spending on other services.

FINSUM: Fidelity is almost using these funds as loss leaders in order to drum up other business. This may work for them because they have such a large product suite, but for less diversified managers, it poses a serious challenge.

(Washington)

Right now it does not seem like it has a high likelihood, but given the current direction of antipathy towards Trump, a sweep by Democrats in the midterm elections could happen. If it does (as opposed to the more likely option of Democrats only taking the House), the following sectors should do well, says Barron’s. These include: consumer staples, utilities, and real estate, all rate-sensitive sectors. The reason why is that Democrats are expected to push through a big infrastructure spending plan if they win, which would create deflation and keep rates pinned.

FINSUM: This is quite an insightful take on what might flourish if Democrats do have a breakthrough. It seems unlikely, but then again, it seemed unlikely Trump was going to win going into election night!

(New York)

A REIT as an ETF might be an odd concept for some advisors. Since REITS are a special asset class unto themselves, and ETF made up of them could seem foreign. Their big advantage is that they are much cheaper than actively managed real estate strategies. However, risks abound, especially as many REITs tend to focus only on the US market, which could be very risky at the moment. One good REIT ETF is the Schwab US REIT, which has returned over 5% this year despite rising rates, and sports a 4%+ yield. Schwab points out that one of the best parts of REITS is that they “do not move in lockstep with either stocks or bonds.” The Vanguard Real Estate ETF is another good REIT choice. For global exposure try the SPDR Dow Jones Global Real Estate.

FINSUM: We like REITs in principal, but rates are a big worry at the moment. They seem like a good way to earn yield right now, but should probably be hedged.

(Washington)

It would be an understatement to say that a lot is riding on the midterms. Control of Congress is at stake, and within it, the whole policy agenda of the country. The stakes are even higher because of how politically divided the country is. Many think the Democrats will take the house but lose the Senate, resulting in a split Congress. This puts many investors at ease because it could block some of the right’s more extreme impulses (such as those against free trade). However, there is reason to worry that Republicans might fare far worse. That reason is that Donald Trump is the most unpopular president ever in such a buoyant economy. According to one polling expert, “There’s a huge disconnect … The economy doesn’t seem to be dominating in a way that it often does in elections”.

FINSUM: Our worry for the Republicans is that Trump is making the midterms more about himself than the party, and given the high degree of disapproval, that approach could really end up costing Republicans in the midterms. Consider an all-blue Congress come November a considerable tail risk.

(New York)

If there were ever a time to be worried about rate risk it is now. The US economy is red hot and the Fed continues to look hawkish. Two rate hikes by the end of the year look like a certainty. So how can one protect their portfolio? One answer is floating rate bonds, and especially floating rate investment grade bonds with a range of durations. One ETF that does just that is the X-trackers Investment Grade Bond – Interest Rate Hedged ETF (IGIH). The ETF sports a yield of over 3%, and very importantly, it has a duration of almost zero, meaning it should be almost completely unaffected by any movement in rates.

FINSUM: a 3% yield with no rate risk sounds like a very good investment in the current environment.