(New York)

The IRS just ended the best loophole in town for high income residents of high tax states like New York, California, Connecticut, New Jersey and Washington DC. Many high tax states had been working a loophole where residents could categorize their tax payments as charity donations, allowing them to deduct it from their taxes. However, the IRS has now closed that loophole effective today, meaning there is no way around the $10,000 SALT deduction limit.

FINSUM: It is no surprise home sales in the northeast are plummeting, as this is a serious economic issue for retaining the wealthy, and even upper middle class.

(Los Angeles)

The saga of the Tesla buyout is finally over after three agonizing weeks. Musk announced Friday that Tesla had put its plans to go private permanently on hold. The Wall Street Journal has run a long article chronicling the internal decision-making process, but ultimately Musk and the board decided it as not an optimal decision, not least because keeping small investors on board wouldn’t have been an option and Tesla would have had to bring on competitors as investors. The stock dropped on the news.

FINSUM: If what we read is correct, Musk did not want Volkswagen to be an investor in the company. That, combined with the Saudis backing away, seems to have been a big part of staying public.

(New York)

Even if you aren’t thinking about it yet, the president is. In an interview yesterday, President Trump said that the stock market would crash if he were impeached. No one can be sure, but history suggests it would have little impact on the market. In the two previous cases in recent memory—Nixon and Clinton—the market behaved differently, falling sharply in the 12 months prior to Nixon’s impeachment, and rising before Clinton’s. JP Morgan’s best guess is that an impeachment wouldn’t be enough to derail the markets and economy itself.

FINSUM: Another interesting argument is that Trump wouldn’t ever be impeached until the market headed south, as that has happened in both of the previous instances (there was a brief but steep correction before Clinton’s impeachment). Nonetheless, we really don’t think Trump will be impeached.

(New York)

Morgan Stanley disclosed this week that it has upped its holdings in two small stocks to above 5%. While one can get a lot of info (however biased) from equity research divisions, there is nothing like seeing what banks are actually buying themselves. In this case, the two stocks are Electronics for Imaging, and Turtle Beach. The former is a digital imaging firm whose shares have been rising this year, and the latter is a gaming headset maker who shares have risen 15x this year, but is still only worth $392m.

FINSUM: Gaming headsets seem like a good growth area at the moment, but are probably outside the skillset of most investors to judge.

(New York)

While some New Yorkers prepaid their property taxes last year in an effort to offset the decline of SALT deductions this year, others weren’t so proactive. Now that Washington has blocked states’ ability to work a loophole around classifying taxes as charitable giving, residents of high tax states may have a small window of opportunity—just 4 days—to avoid full taxes. The new regulations will take effect on August 27th, which means residents have until then to donate to the tax-charity funds which have been established.

FINSUM: Such last minute payments could be challenged after the fact, but considering the effective date of the new regulations, they seem like they would go through.

(San Francisco)

Central bankers meeting at their annual gathering in Jackson Hole this week have a topic at the front of their minds—is rising corporate power hurting investment, wage growth, and productivity? Looking at the figures, the picture is mixed, but that is beside the point says the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ argues that investors should buy the monopolies the central bankers are worried about, because if the bankers are right, that will mean rising returns to capital. In other words, investors will be getting more and more of the rewards.

FINSUM: Market share in most of the US’ business sectors have been consolidating for years, and there are less and less publicly traded stocks as companies swallow each other. Corporate power is rising. However, for investors, this is a simple matter as more power will likely mean better payouts and returns.

(Rio de Janeiro)

The outlook for emerging markets appears to be dimming. While Turkey’s troubles are well-know, widespread weakness in EM currencies is rattling the markets. EM equities are flirting with a bear market and metals prices have dropped sharply, with the latter hurting EM economies in particular. The worries over EM stocks are now seeping into Eurozone banks, where fears for lending losses are rising. One research analyst sums it up this way, saying “The combination of stronger currencies, lower commodity prices, and potentially weaker bank credit creation is a disinflationary headwind for developed markets in the near term”.

FINSUM: There are many factors which seem to be dragging emerging market economies downward, and that may be a bad sign for the global economy as a whole.

(Washington)

The US and China ended two days of trade war negotiations yesterday, and apparently there was little progress. Both sides pressed ahead with enforcing $16 bn of further tariffs on one another. The deputy White House Press Secretary commented at the end of the negotiations that the two countries “exchanged views on how to achieve fairness, balance and reciprocity in the economic relationship”, but made no mention of any material progress being made. One senior Trump administration official added “in order to get a positive result out of these engagements, it’s really critical that they address the fundamental concerns that we have raised. We haven’t seen that yet”.

FINSUM: While the market seemed very hopeful about these talks, the trade battle with China looks likely to keep going for a while yet as the issue seems to be quite intractable.

(New York)

The US real estate market has appeared to be on the ropes for several months. While the woes in commercial real estate have been apparent for some time, it is the recent reversal in the residential market that caught some off guard. Well, new data is out, and it seems to have cemented a new reality—housing is in full decline. Homes sales declined month over month, with a big drop in sales in the northeast. The home sales figure was the weakest in two years. The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors commented that “Too many would-be buyers are either being priced out, or are deciding to postpone their search until more homes in their price range come on to the market”.

FINSUM: The summer is usually a better time for home sales, so this comes during what should be a period of strength. Home prices seem bound for a correction given how pricey things have become at the same time as rates have been rising.

(Washington)

Yesterday was a rough one for the President. Michael Cohen’s guilty plea, and testimony that he was order to pay two women by Trump using campaign finances caused yet another firestorm for the White House. Trump responded strongly, admitting that he knew of the payments, but denying that they came out of campaign finances, saying he paid for them personally. Lawyers say it will be hard to use Cohen’s testimony to bring charges against Trump. However, Cohen’s lawyer says that his client can also testify that Trump was aware of Russian efforts to interfere with the election before such information was ever reported publicly.

FINSUM: We do not think the campaign finance situation will imperil Trump, but that last statement about Russia is a real x factor which could cause serious trouble.