(New York)

High yield companies have been big beneficiaries of the tumble in yields this year. But not in the way one thinks, not in the form of a big rally. Instead, highly indebted borrowers have been using the tumble in yields as a way to refinance their debt and lengthen out maturities. The practice has been very widespread. According to one portfolio manager, “It’s a recipe for disaster in the longer term … As an investor, it means you are lending to fairly risky companies at fairly low rates at the end of the cycle. It might not be three months from now or six months from now, but at some point these bonds are going to be pretty challenged”.

FINSUM: Kick the can down the road for as long as you can. That has been the mantra of junk bond markets since the Crisis. When will the musical chairs stop?

(San Francisco)

Big tech companies have had an incredible decade, but that may be about to go the way of Wall Street, and not the post-Glass Steagall Wall Street, more like post Dodd-Frank Wall Street. Regulatory inquiries and fines against Big Tech are starting to pile up, and while the actual fines are tolerable given the companies’ massive profitability, the real change that could hurt them is structural. All the regulatory inquiries have forced tech companies to load up on compliance and related staff—Facebook’s employee count has surged from 6,000 six years ago to 35,000 today. Margins at Google have fallen considerably too. All of that is happening at the same time as top line growth is inevitably slowing because of the size of the businesses.

FINSUM: We think Big Tech might be at the very beginning of the end of its golden age.

(Washington)

The SEC rule has received a lot of attention. Those in the industry have been moderately positive on the rule because of its degree of leniency, but no one really thinks it is a good rule, especially not investor protection advocates. Today we ready an opinion of the rule by an industry laywer, and it was so compelling, we had to share it in its entirety. The below is from Steven Lofchie of Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP: “Now, in many respects, we have ended up with the worst of all possible situations: (i) the Reg. BI adopting release fails to make any strong intellectual argument for why it is not reasonable to expect that broker-dealers can be fiduciaries to their clients; (ii) Reg. BI fails to make any distinction between sophisticated and unsophisticated natural person clients (treating Warren Buffett no different from a high school dropout); (iii) Reg. BI imposes significant new obligations on broker-dealers that very well may reduce the willingness of broker-dealers to provide "full-service" brokerage to retail investors and instead result in retail investors seeking any level of advice to potentially pay a much higher charge to an investment adviser; (iv) Reg. BI fails to satisfy any of the critics who wanted a fiduciary obligation imposed on broker-dealers; and (v) states are adopting their own "suitability" rules - urged on by Commissioner Jackson - thereby moving U.S. securities regulation away from a unitary system of regulation to a fractured Brexit system.”.

FINSUM: We have never read any commentary that does justice to the new rule better than Mr. Lofchie’s. It hits the nail on the head on why it is a failure from all sides.

(New York)

It has been years since there was much good news in US real estate. The market has been slightly pessimistic for years, but finally there might be some reason for optimism. New home sales actually rose in June, a sign that health is improving in the all-important US property sector. Sales increased 7% from May, but the average home price stayed flat from one year ago at $310,400.

FINSUM: With rates likely to fall and yields having already tumbled, it would not be surprising to see a short-term pop in real estate. It would actually be quite worrying if that doesn’t happen.

(Munich)

In a very worrying report from the EU< European manufacturing is in a “free fall”. Data from Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, shows that the country’s manufacturing industry is declining rapidly. “In manufacturing, the business climate indicator is in freefall”, said the head of a highly regarded economic research group. The chief economist at Commerzbank added that “there is far and wide nothing to be seen of the second half recovery hoped”, continuing “Germany is in a grey area between a marked growth slowdown and a recession”.

FINSUM: Europe certainly looks headed for a recession (unless the ECB can save it). Will the US catch the economic flu this time, or remain Teflon America?

(San Francisco)

Facebook announced this week that it would pay a $5 bn fine to settle a Free Trade Commission investigation into privacy violations. The exact same day, Facebook announced that the FTC had launched another probe, this one perhaps more worrying. The new probe is a formal antitrust investigation into Facebook. The company disclosed the investigation alongside its quarterly results yesterday.

FINSUM: So Facebook and big tech not only have the DOJ on them now, but now the FTC too. End of the golden age of the FAANGs?

(New York)

Annuities are an important part of both advisors’ businesses and their clients’ portfolios. However, the options in the market can be overwhelming, especially if you are an advisor new to the asset class. The annuities business has cleaned up its act in the last few years and is finally getting some respect because of its ability to alleviate retirees’ worst fears—running out of money in retirement. Well, Barron’s has put out a list of the top 100 annuities in the market, including how to pick them. The list is quite extensive, so here is a link. The choices are broken down into numerous categories and include offerings from Lincoln National Life, Transamerica, Prudential, CUNA Mutual Group, and beyond.

FINSUM: Not only do annuities help alleviate the fear of running out of money for retirees, but they are also popular with Millennials, who are financially conservative and have a similar concern about future income.

(San Francisco)

There have been a lot of worries about the tech sector this year. Besides valuation, the big fear has been the threat of regulation. Well, those anxieties are proving to be correct as the Department of Justice has just officially announced that it has opened a probe to figure out whether the tech sector is smothering competition. The broad antitrust investigation did not name companies in particular, but said it would focus on “search, social media and some retail services online”.

FINSUM: This is quite a worrying development, but it is hard to say how exactly it may play out. There does seem to be popular momentum behind further regulating big tech, which means lawmakers may be more emboldened.

(New York)

The muni market seems healthy. Other than the cases where budgets are exploding, the market as a whole has characteristically low yields and looks stable, especially because of excess investor demand from the recent tax changes. However, there are structural concerns about the market. Nuveen and Vanguard have come to dominate the market through their funds, sucking up to two-thirds of all the Dollars flowing into the market in the last decade. This is because investors have been increasingly buying muni funds, not individual securities. However, according to UBS, this is a big risk. “When everyone runs for the exit at the same time…no one wants to be the buyer of last resort … The concentration in large municipal asset managers will have ramifications during volatile times in that it will make the swings greater one way or another”.

FINSUM: Everyone has been warning about big runs on fixed income funds in a market downturn, but evidence of such has yet to materialize.

(Chicago)

REITs are in an interesting position right now given the downward rate environment. One on the one hand, that makes them look better, but given that rates are being driven by economic fears, it might not be good after all. However, one area of REITs looks pretty attractive—mall REITS. Yes, that might sound insane given the state of brick and mortar retail, but that is exactly the point. Expectations are so low, that the bar for prices to rise is quite low.

FINSUM: “A” malls, or REITs with top producing properties seem to the best bet, as they are better capitalized to upgrade their stores and have the most resilient locations.