FINSUM
ETFs have been a fee destroyer since their inception, and advisors/companies have been forced to either play along or bleed AUM. However, direct/custom is putting the power back in in the hands of the advisors. BlackRock, Vanguard, and Morgan Stanley are all buying their way into the direct indexing craze. Direct Indexing is giving investors and advisors the best of both active and passive investing worlds. While stock picking might not have the best record, starting from a base index and then stripping or adding based on preference could give investors. Custom Indexing can be for a preference for/or against a stock but more importantly it gives investors the reins when it comes to their tax burdens.
FINSUM: Direct Indexing is the goldilocks solution to the low fee/advisor specialty conundrum, and will be the dominant trend in investing over the next decade.
Talks were making progress on the state and local tax reductions but they hit a wall this week. Democrats are splitting on the SALT deduction, specifically Senator Bernie Sanders has withdrawn from the previously agreed to plan. Democrats have been in agreement for a 10-year revenue neutral deduction, but Sanders wants to use the SALT deduction to be a revenue generator and use the multiple hundred billion dollars in revenue to pay for vision and dental in a Medicare expansion. The biggest disagreement is what incomes would be eligible for the unlimited benefit; Sanders wants to set the market at $400k while most democrats feel the limit should be $550k. Overall the current SALT write offs in the Build Back Better bill give up to $80k in write offs and this is too much for Senator Sanders.
FINSUM: Holding up the BBB for a SALT deduction is a small grievance. These deductions were revenue neutral which should be a bi-partisan victory.
With 2021 almost coming to a close it's worth looking back at the biggest ESG funds of the last year, and three have stood out in a very saturated market. Goldman’s Future Planet Equity ETF is an active fund that addresses environmental problems and has raked in $107m since its launch in mid-July. Invesco’s MSCI Sustainable Future ETF focuses on corporations utilizing natural resources more efficiently and has outperformed the previous Goldman’s Future Planet fund by 4.7% since July. Finally, the Humankind U.S. Stock ETF is an ESG focused fund that is weighted by proprietary data and varies greatly from the traditional cap-weighted ETF. HKND has raised over $106 million since its launch in February.
FINSUM: These are stand out performers in a highly saturated market, equity focused ETFs are the route to take as far as ESGs.
2021 has posed its fair share of risks to the average portfolio: emerging market disruption, Covid-19 resurgence, slowing economic growth, and rising inflation. However, model portfolios are the solution advisors can utilize to mitigate this risk. Often sought after for their ability for advisors to utilize in order to spend time deepening relationships with clients, a suite of model portfolios have popped up targeted to mitigate risks. For example, EQM Capital launched a variety of modular model portfolios that are risk-based ETFs to better suit clients’ portfolio objectives and preferences.
FINSUM: Model portfolios are expanding and changing in a variety of ways, and this means they can better suit their clients whether that's for their risk level or ESG expansion.
Direct Indexing is the process of holding the stocks in the weights of the underlying Index, rather than buying an ETF that tracks an index, and this new opportunity is being adopted by financial heavyweight Charles Schwab and will be available to investors. Starting with the large-cap Schwab 1000 Index, S&P Small Cap 600 Index and MSCI KLD 400 Social Index, Schwab will be available to mix and match to customize a portfolio to hit the investor’s exact needs. However, this option won’t be available to just any investor. The indexing platform will require a $100,000 account size. Adoption of direct index investing is one piece of Schwab’s expansion into personal investing, that goes hand-in-hand with environmental, social, and governance investing and other thematic investing.
FINSUM: Schwab is the latest of Vanguard, Fidelity, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley to jump into index investing. However Schwab’s pricing format is not revealed and its advantages over a low fee ETF are not yet clear.
The bond market boon has been bad for many fixed income investors, and debt is coming to term in a higher inflationary environment which is eating up all the return. However, bond market investors are turning to factor based investing to earn excess returns. Factor investing is a $700 billion market in equities, and it dwarfs the $25 billion dollar fixed income factor market. Factor investor modifies indices based on factors they think can give an edge over traditional indices. Active bond factor investing can outperform traditional indices in rising yield environments, but factor investing is looking to rival these active funds with systemic decisions. A ‘smart beta’ approach will look to outperform in high yield and emerging market debt.
FINSUM: The extensive literature on systemic fixed income is relatively small, and that's why smart beta strategies have failed to take off in the bond market like they have in equities.
Markets were flummoxed early this week with the growing Omicron Covid-19 variant spreading rapidly in pockets globally. Despite these growing concerns and a seemingly endless pandemic, the JPMorgan is calling for a big 2022. With one of the absolute highest predictions on wall street JPMorgan is calling for a 5050 S&P 500 to end 2022. Easing supply chains, earrings growth and a more stable China are the key parts of their prediction for a successful equity market in 2022. Even if investors overweight China in their portfolios, the biggest threat will be domestically. A hawkish turn by the Fed would be detrimental to their prediction and is still the largest sort of risk in JPMorgans eyes.
FINSUM: Powell is talking tapering and rate rises just as Omicron is spreading which could be the perfect storm for a bad Q1 in 2022.
Goldman Sachs has a new platform for investors to assist in portfolio management. In a partnership with Amazon’s cloud division, GS is bringing data and software tools for software management to a cloud computing environment. The product will give investors access to aggregated data and GS expertise in investing. Additionally they hope to lower the barrier to entry for quantitative trading techniques and allow smaller firms to have access. The partnership came as a shock at how close both companies are to one another. This also adds another company to Amazon's growing list of cloud based partnerships which have had an incredibly high success rate. GS will monetize the platform and target it to hedge funds and other financial companies.
FINSUM: This products biggest benefit will be the clean data and accessibility, but a strong partnership like this could send regulation warning signs to Washington.
Traditional crypto dominates headlines, and while regulations are an inevitability in the U.S.; stable coins are getting some attention from regulators as well. Stable coins are cryptos pegged predominantly the U.S. dollar, using assets like T-bills to back them as an underlying asset. They are used to trade other crypto currencies by many investors and have yields bringing in over 7%. However, the underlying assets backing stable coins are opaque and include commercial paper, loans, or swaps. The Biden admin is calling on Congress, and the Treasury if they fail to act, to regulate the industry because the fear of a run on stable coins is gowing. However, Wall Street views these regulations as a positive for the industry and legitimize stable coins. Mastercard, Visa, Western Union, Silvergate Capital and Signature bank could all benefit given how much they interact with stable coins.
FINSUM: Regulation is the best thing for stable coins, they get so many overseas investors who want hold dollar denominated assets, and this will calm fears of a run on the asset.
