Jerome Powell and the Fed turned a 180 this week with the future of its asset tapering and interest rate hikes. The Fed sees Covid and omicron as yesterday's demons and have set their sights on inflation. With that the Fed is gearing up for potentially three rate hikes in 2022 and is moving away from the transitory inflation story. This could be bad for bond investors as the Fed’s tune could change if omicron picks up or inflation shifts gears, meaning there is a lot of uncertainty about future rates. Nonetheless, higher rates could undercut existing long term bonds so those still invested in bonds should consider switching their investments to shorter duration Fixed Income ETFs or less sensitive corporate bonds. Lower duration bond ETFs will be more stable when there is interest rate uncertainty (unlike in standard times).

FINSUM: The Fed could just as quickly hop off the inflation fighting hawk train if they get a series of lower PCE reports, which means investors need to be ready for various scenarios.

The environmental, social, and governance investment trend continues on a full head of steam as Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon both launched a series of new ETFs aligning with different ESG objectives. Goldman launches a Large Cap equity ETF which tracks companies aligned with the new Paris Climate Agreement. Meanwhile BNY Mellon drops three new active ESG ETFs: the first will invest in over 80% sustainable U.S. equity, the second geared towards global markets, and the final will target emerging markets. These are just the latest as both Ark and JPMorgan created two new ESG ETFs as well in the last week. Some of the newer ETFs are following in the Euro area trend of specific disinvestment from companies reliant on C02.

FINSUM: The best part of all the new ESG focused products is the way they can be added that complement an existing portfolio: lacking large cap, pick up an ESG focused large cap ETF.

Biden recently made his pick for a critical new position at the DOL: head of the Employee Benefits Security Administration. Lisa Gomez has been nominated and is likely to get bipartisan confirmation. Gomez is seen as critical to the redrafting of the fiduciary rule that is taking place at the DOL. Most industry insiders expect the new version of the fiduciary rule to be much tougher, more akin to the original Obama era rule than the currently in-effect Trump version.

FINSUM: The reality is that if a critical new person is being brought on board to lead the effort, it is likely to push back the timeline, or so says Brad Campbell, leading regulatory lawyer at Faegre Drinker, a leading law firm in our space.

Direct and Custom Indexing is swallowing up the financial world interests like ETFs have over the last 20 years, but this new trend isn’t without its drawbacks, specifically for retirees. Most investors will utilize direct indexing to weed out stocks they don’t want or minimize their tax burden, Lawrence Tint formerly of BGI voiced some critiques of custom indexing. Tint believes the tax advantage over traditional indexing is minimal because of the turnover in the funds. Additionally direct indexing will have higher fees and even if brokers don’t charge for fees investors will incur the bid-ask spread costs. Finally, direct indexing will make it very hard for income investors to reinvest dividends in a way to mirror the existing or custom index, and the more custom the index the more likely the traditional problems of stock pickers will riddle the custom portfolio.

FINSUM: These drawbacks to direct indexing provide a more complete view of the pros and cons to the financial trend, but it still has a leg up in tax loss harvesting over traditional ETFs.

Model portfolios allow the feel of tailored experience with the ability to hit wider audiences by addressing the specific risks, features or scenarios investors are concerned about. WisdomTree has been a leader in model portfolio development by providing options across diverse assets such as equity, fixed-income, strategic multi-asset, growth oriented, and dividend options. On top of this they build out scenario focused funds.Their fixed income funds are focusing on shorter duration quality bonds while dipping into alternative credit. They have also developed a variety of international funds that focus on developing countries in order to meet the needs of investors worried the U.S. equity market is too overvalued.

FINSUM: Model portfolios are giving advisors a strong option for targeted concerns that face their clients like volatility and inflation.

The roaring post comeback of equities post pandemic has been wonderful but investors have few places to turn to mitigate their tax bill, except for the bond market. All major categories in the S&P 500 were up this year, and enjoying the broader rally. Bonds have suffered and so have many bond ETFs however, the glimmer of hope is how they can contribute to help offset tax loss. Bond ETF holders will already be in a better position just given their construction and exposure to taxes, and investors are also jumping between fixed income ETFs to manage fees as some ETF managers are cutting in order to synchronize for the tax loss harvesters. However, the 2-3% fall off in bond ETFs won’t be enough to entirely offset the equities rally this year.

FINSUM: This is the perfect time to capture low fees in bond ETFs because they are mainly a tax vehicle at this moment and return is secondary.

Bonds and equities are more correlated than ever and on top of that there isn’t any yield in the bond market these days due to the trillions in QE. Investors are now searching for an uncorrelated hedge to what looks like a looming equity bubble, and private credit markets are giving investors an alternative. High fees, opaque transactions, illiquid markets, and locked up finances are downsizing private credit but more companies are searching for financing partnerships in private markets. Middleman companies like Blackstone and Carlyle Tactical Private Credit can match companies in transactions that wouldn’t be possible in public markets and generate yield that wouldn’t normally be possible. In order to meet the rising demand private creditors are pitching to larger companies that could have access to the public bond market and giving persuasive pitches.

FINSUM: Private credit is the most enticing alternative to the volatile bond market. 

A new study by Alliance for Lifetime Income and CANNEX is shaking the foundation of the standard portfolio construction which uses 60/40 equity bond split to simultaneously grow and protect/provide income. Investors in hypothetical allocation, 20% of their portfolio into equities 14% into real estate and annuities made up the next largest category of 13% followed by CDs, bonds, and alternatives. This overwhelming support for annuities is interesting but even more intriguing iis that nearly 85% of investors were interested in a lifetime guaranteed income annuity or already own one. Advisors should hear their clients desires for annuities rather than push the traditional portfolio allocation. The increased interest in annuities is a growing trend for investors and will be a more prominent feature in the average portfolio.

FINSUM: The pandemic and the current financial landscape has upended what many investors thought of as a safe asset, and guaranteed income (even at a cost) is worth it for many.

Saying the bond market is difficult would be more than an understatement, and while yields are creeping it's still hard to get the historic performance. However, many investors are turning to active fixed income ETFs. This has led to a swelling of inflows into the market category making up 16% of ETF inflows in 2021 through October. Turmoil at the Fed and the continual threat of a taper tantrum have many investors looking to pros to sort out the difficulties in the bond market. Active FI ETFs can also fit narrower targets and accommodate the rapidly shifting macroeconomic environment.

FINSUM: Seasoned veterans at the helm make the most sense when the environment is shifting, and active ETF can edge out when the future is uncertain.

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