FINSUM
Inflation is a concern for retirees, but they should be more concerned than ever becauseSocial Security is tracking the wrong index. Currently Social Security bases its cost of living adjustments on the consumer price index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). However, the CPI-W doesn’t fully account for the costs of healthcare and housing that burden retirees more than other groups. Instead social security should track the Consumer Price Index for Elderly (CPI-E) because this is the demographic they are targeting. Research shows that the average social security account since 1983 is in a 0.2% compounded deficit. The rate of inflation for healthcare is slowing which could end up benefiting retirees moving forward but that's just a prediction.
FINSUM: Social security won’t be keeping up with your healthcare costs and investors should augment their portfolios to compensate.
Hedge funds opened the floodgates and entered a firesale on treasuries in response to Powells pivot on inflation. JPMorgan said the selling demonstrates leveraged investors pivoting out of Treasuries. Hedge funds are continually shorting across the futures market, and are now hitting an annual low in U.S. 10-year treasuries futures. The only problem is the tapering hasn’t begun just yet and rate hikes are only in theory. This means hedge funds drastically need the Fed to follow through on a hawkish swing if they don’t want to get hung out to dry.
FINSUM: It would be extremely unlikely the Fed pivots on its tapering. The only way that's possible is if inflation was significantly below target the next one or two quarters.
Given their widespread popularity lawmakers have scrambled to put together a series of changes to a popular retirement product in the last year and it looks like more are coming. There appears to be bi-partisan support for the additions building on the 2019 Secure act which tried to increase retirement security. The House and Senate bills both include changes that would remove the maximum amount on the Qualified Longevity Annuity Contract. Previously it was capped at the minimum of $135,000 or 25% of your retirement accounts. The Senate provision also bumps the minimum up to $200,000. The new provisions also include auto enrollment in 401(k) plans and a student loan exchange in existing 401(k) plans. The final piece to the provisions is an increase in catch-up contributions for existing 401(k) plans that could further bolster retirement savings.
FINSUM: One of the underappreciated aspects of the Biden administration is the expansion of savings vehicles for retirees across many income earners.
The latest data release from BlackRock’s iShares division revealed troubling news about the state of Bond Market ETFs: inflows slumped to just $14 billion which is the lowest since the onset of the pandemic. It's the taxable corporate bond market that's fairing the worst as investors are pouring less dollars into traditional corporate debt and junk bonds, amid fears of inflation eating yields. Instead, investors are turning to shorter duration and inflation protected bonds. Nearly 40% of fixed income flows went into inflation linked bonds, an almost unprecedented number. Investors have also started to put inflows into Chinese bonds as the international sovereign debt market was a relative winner among bond ETFs. China’s yield is the biggest draw to international investors as they see the debt as relatively secure and paying more than developed countries.
FINSUM: Expect corporate bond outflows to continue until the TIPS spread starts turning towards the Feds 2% inflation objective.
The cloud has been the latest computing craze financial firms have been chasing but it was mobile control that just got the latest expansion in portfolio management software. Enfusion Inc. is a leading provider of cloud based financial software and they are pushing through several new alterations to their mobile platforms. Mobile users will have personalized reports and real-time access to their market exposures. Additionally, they will have a variety of compliance management features including monitoring and overriding exceptions. Finally, a variety of managed services like secure document sharing and profit and loss statements optimized for mobile platforms will be available.
FINSUM: Companies with an advantage in cloud computing will make the quickest transition to mobile products because of the large data they can provide at the snap of their fingers.
The Security and Exchange Commission just issued a slew of new regulatory changes that would impact current trading standards. New changes could come into vote if they have majority support among the five commissioners and two others. Chairman Gensler stated he wants the public and markets to have fair material information. Essentially there is no public disclosure form when a plan to schedule share purchases takes place which can ultimately give insiders an advantage on the trading block. The research in academia has confirmed these trades are more beneficial in the ability to avoid losses inside a 60-day window.
FINSUM: These changes could lead to substantially less stock buyback plans in the coming years as insiders could face more symmetric returns.
Investors need to be more active with their finances and taxes as they enter retirement because it's not the time to coast as many presume. One of the areas retirees underestimate the costs of retirement and permanently puncture their safety net is in healthcare. Hefty premiums hit most Americans due to the Affordable Care Act once you hit 50, and most Americans who retire before Medicare will face a shocking bill. There are lots of healthcare tax credits available for those with low and middle incomes, and bigger benefits if healthcare costs breach 7.5% of adjusted income. Finally, Roth conversation ladders will dramatically impact your healthcare costs.
FINSUM: It’s critical to be informed about all of the tax benefits those approaching or entering retirement can take advantage of pre-Medicare.
Over 500 institutional investors were surveyed and one of the top 5 most important themes going into 2022 is active management in areas like fixed income markets. A combination of factors are leading to more investment but broadly speaking, it is uncertainty which is having investors leaning into active management. On top of this, active management is preferred as the best strategy in risk management overall. A majority of those surveyed believe high fluctuation in inflows and outflows to passive funds put the market in a more systemically risky position. Despite a dragging start to 2021, 70% of investors said their active funds outperformed passive ones.
FINSUM: Picking stocks is always hard, but increased volatility could give pickers an edge.
There is a growing interest among investors, particularly when it comes to retirement, in annuities. Nearly 4/5ths of investors have interest in annuities but as few as 10% of retirement plans offer them. Things are changing at fidelity however, as they are giving the opinions for a guaranteed income direct plan if your employers pick it up. And it seems more employers will be taking on annuities in part of their 401k coverage given the 2020 Secure Act which eased the legal burdens on companies when picking up annuity coverage. Additionally Fidelity is giving the option of naming a beneficiary to your annuity which will curb the biggest concern among investors.
FINSUM: Most Americans aren’t saving enough for retirement and for those retiring sooner rather than later an annuity is a more secure bet given market turmoil.
Diversity, Equity and Inclusion approaches are key parts of finding new financial advisor talent in today's world. Comments at the CFP Board by Akeiva Ellis stressed that firms evaluate their DEI policies and procedures, and more importantly the culture if they want to hire and retain employees. Executives at T. Rowe Price have emphasized plans for advancement within the company as a strategy to retain employees. Specific step by step paths that allow them to know their metrics and execute are the best way to retain and attract talent. Finally, underserved groups don’t often have the same access to the personal feedback that allows them to flourish so specific habits surrounding performance are critical for keeping diverse talent.
FINSUM: DEI is becoming a critical part of recruitment and retention, and an edge up could provide the strongest advisors in the market.