FINSUM
Biden has hit a brick wall with his climate legislation, and now is going out of his way pleading that oil companies double down on drilling efforts to curb gas prices in response to Russia-Ukraine invasion. However, the SEC is expected to propose new regulation that will force companies to disclose data around their climate risks. This legislation will only come into effect as early as 2023, but it will put a major spotlight on the biggest polluters and carbon contributors. Many believe these changes will force companies to pay higher costs for their carbon use and maybe make it harder for companies to invest in green bonds and funds around these companies.
Finsum: This isn’t enough to end greenwashing; foriegn governments are well ahead of the US in terms of ESG regulation.
2021 set an all time record for American’s quitting with approximately 47 million opting to leave their jobs and giving the year the title the ‘Great Resignation’. However, financial advisors have remained insulated from the one off spike. Many say this has to do with how advisors see their business, and being their own practitioners. This holds many companies accountable for keeping advisors satisfied because they can take their book of business elsewhere. Still there have been a slight increase in quits but that's part of a broader trend over the last three years for financial advisors.
Finsum: Firms are definitely getting the message, and are increasing measures for both retention and hiring in order to grow scale and attract advisors.
Many investors have moved off of REITs and they are trading well below their 200-day moving averages. This makes them a value proposition, particularly as volatility starts to rise. Uncertainty particularly around Ukraine and Russia is fueling volatility but its uncorrelated with REIT volatility which gives it a huge risk advantage on top of it all they are more robust to inflation. Two great REITs to consider with great value at the moment are Alexandria Real Estate Equities and Crown Castle International. These REITs have healthcare and telecom exposures respectively which are in a particularly attractive position as healthcare spending is a higher portion of budgets and 5G is exploding.
Finsum: It’s easy to see that alternatives should be seeing inflows given the volatility in traditional equity and bond markets.
2021 was a comeback year for active fixed Exchange Traded Funds. Driving this home was a huge set of inflows as they saw a tenth of inflows globally, many of these came from the US. That trend isn’t stopping as nearly 80% of investors are searching to expand that position in 2022. Many investors see active funds having an edge with global turmoil increasing, as Russia-Ukraine escalates, and there are many macro risks domestically. Additionally, investors are clamoring to buy more ESG ETFs in 2022 as this trend shows no signs of falling off.
Finsum: Markets were messy and pretty hard to predict in the aughts, but active management seems to have a leg up in picking tech growth as well as fixed income winners.
Female advisors are heavily underrepresented in advising, and that's just because the industry fundamentally doesn’t understand how to recruit and retain them. Female advisors represent about a fifth of the industry. The number one way according to research to obtain and retain female advisors is having women occupy leadership positions. Additionally, female advisors want more flexibility stressed in the hiring process. A pipeline strategy with flexibility is a wonderful way to hire more female employees and retain them afterward.
Finsum: Female advisors can click and connect with different sets of clientele and are an underrepresented portion of the financial industry.
Oil demand isn’t diminishing anytime soon, and while Russian Oil companies may suffer from sanctions and political pressure other oil companies are in a position to benefit. Goldman upgraded three oil companies that could capitalize. The first is Diamondback Energy from Texas; they have strong production and great revenues/earnings. Next up was Ovintiv which moved from Canada to the US two years ago but also has strong revenues and a half dozen consecutive quarterly gains in earnings. Rounding out the bunch is Hess which is a hydrocarbon extraction company which will benefit from the elevated prices in its shale search.
Finsum: These options look promising, remember fringe producers really benefit the most on the margins from elevated prices.
The longer equity portfolios experience growth over time the fewer the opportunities there are to realize the losses and take advantage. Actually quant fund AQR called these appreciated portfolio’s a ‘liability’ for tax purposes. One interesting thing they find is that tax preferred passive equity and direct indexing can develop unrealized gains rapidly. It takes only 3 years for direct indexing to have unrealized gains hit 50% of the portfolio value and 5 years for a tax preferred passive strategy. AQR offers an alternative approach, ‘enhanced indexing’ which is a tax-loss strategy they developed that can help investors. If a direct-indexing strategy already has large unrealized gains it is hard to catch up, but the enhanced indexing strategy can still generate losses for tax purposes. Enhanced indexing is the preferred option when a portfolio is already heavily appreciated.
Finsum: Direct indexing and enhanced indexing are both novel strategies in maintaining an ETF like strategy while taking advantage of tax-loss harvesting.
Legal experts are predicting there could be an expansion coming to the DOL fiduciary. Partners at Faegre Drinker are expecting a proposal in the next quarter or two which would label one-time advisors involved in retirement rollover or IRA assets to be labeled fiduciaries. One time advice-givers particularly those trying to establish a relationship would now be labeled as fiduciary advice. Reporters reached out to the Department of Labor but they did not respond to a request for a comment about the change. However, legal federations are expected to challenge the further expansion of the DOL fiduciary classification.
Finsum: This would be a major change to the DOL Fiduciary rule and could really impact advisors trying to gain clients.
There is nothing like an international conflict to generate a flight to safe assets, and as much pressure as treasury bond prices have taken in the last year, they are still the world’s premiere safe asset. Inflows post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have lowered Treasury yields and raised bond prices. Additionally it appears that markets are either dubious of the Fed’s rate hikes or just don’t think it will take as many to get the jobs done. Regardless, many bond ETFs, particularly around treasuries have benefited such as the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF which were up 2.0% and 2.6% respectively in the last week.
Finsum: Treasuries are still the global safe asset and they are still in short supply given the abnormally low levels of U.S. interest rates.
The 2019 Secure Act was THE critical piece of legislation for annuities in the 21st century, but that could change with the upcoming LIFE Act which is working its way to voting. Where the secure act made legal production of annuities easier and allowed them to be a part of retirement plans, the LIFE Act will allow annuities to be a 50% asset allocation by default from employers. Currently, the LIFE Act has strong bipartisan and posts a strong potential of passing, this would allow investors to double their baseline investment in annuities where it was previously capped at 25%.
Finsum: The ultra low rate environment has many investors more interested in turning to annuities for income than almost any other time before.