FINSUM
The mainstream financial world is all over the place when it comes to crypto however, Bridgewater Associates is planning on increasing their exposure to digital assets. The firm has made it clear they have some small investments in crypto, Dalio himself advises investors to allocate a small portion of their portfolios into crypto. It will most likely only be a small portion of their $150 billion portfolio but it is in phase 1 of 2. Marshall Wace, Point72 and Brevan Howard have all made crypto investments in the last year.
Finsum: Biden’s most recent crypto executive order legitimizes crypto in many investors eyes because it brings it into the traditional realm.
There has been an explosion of annuity interest by investors, a lot of that is being driven by the low-interest-rate environment and increased uncertainty more broadly. Health is a key factor in an annuity purchase, but a healthier individual will receive lower payments so they may want to delay their annuity purchase. If you are seeking a deferred annuity, however, then you may want to purchase it sooner and annuitize later in order to grow the value if it has a guaranteed interest. Finally, inflation can eat at the value of a fixed annuity which means it might devalue your payment stream later on. The optimal purchased time for a fixed annuity is generally a couple of years post-retirement: 70-75. A deferred annuity should be purchased much younger, the optimal age being in the mid-40s.
Finsum: Consult a financial advisor as to which annuity timeline makes the most sense for your portfolio.
Wells Fargo’s recruiting efforts have been no secret, but it looks like it is starting to pay off. In Q1 of 2022 they brought in over $5.4 billion in assets under management. Wells had seen advisors flee as a result of various public scandals in the last few years. They had lost 1.5% of their advisors in Q4 of 2021 and 8.5% in the whole year prior. The firm has said they are more pleased with their recruiting efforts as of late, but they are still putting forth efforts in the hiring process to retain and recruit advisors.
Finsum: Wells Fargo may be turning a new leaf and the bonuses related to advisor recruiting and retention are bringing in more assets.
The Fed hiked rates at the latest FOMC meeting but they were partially forced to with just about every measure of inflation hitting 30-year highs. However, more importantly they project that the federal funds rate will hit 2.75% by the end of 2023. This may have been the first hike in years but it will be one of eleven if they want to hit that mark. The bond market is pessimistic as they not only are projecting less hikes, but slower growth as well. The yield curve is indicating inflation will be under control but it might be costly. Typically this means that the Fed won’t mean to hike as frequently as they are indicating. There has been a lot of action in the TIPS market and it is indicating they expect inflation to average just shy of 2.8% in the next decade.
Finsum: Markets are most likely right in this scenario and that fewer rate hikes will get inflation under control; hopefully the economy can take the hit.
Private equity set many records for itself in 2021 with gigantic inflows and huge market outperformance, but could that all be slowed in 2022 by an escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation? Bain & Co said that steeper capital costs driven from these two scenarios will undercut PE as an asset class in 2022. Inflation will hurt growing PE investments and the cheap flow of capital is being reduced by the conflict. There are huge risks that valuations will be much flatter from this point out. This means that the huge inflows and record-setting outperformance might not hold up in 2022.
Finsum: 2021 inflows were already higher than market expectations a natural correction could have been in place, but this could be more severe than just a standard correction.
The U.S. is seeing 30-year records on inflation, and whole generations of American’s have never seen inflation this high. Even worse inflation is even more elevated for healthcare services. Healthcare inflation is expected to be nearly 12% for the next two years according to HealthView Services. This could be a huge hole in retirement savings as a couple of retirees today can expect to spend over $85k on healthcare, those retiring in a decade over $160k and those in the next two decades just shy of $260k. Moreover, social security won’t be enough as the cost of living adjustment doesn’t track healthcare inflation or even standard inflation. Meaning healthcare costs will eat away at most of Social Security.
Finsum: HSAs are more valuable than ever given these ridiculous healthcare inflation costs.
There has been a serious increase in interest in annuities during the pandemic, but overall the product suffered as retirements got put on hold. Bond market disruption has increased that excitement and Legal and General, a British provider, is expecting a big turn around with the pandemic in the rear view. They have already seen a 5% uptick in since the onset of the pandemic. A full recovery is underway and retirement is back on the agenda for many investors, which makes annuities attractive again. Additionally data around savings rates and flows are trending positive for annuities as well.
Finsum: Annuities are just the better alternative for many retirees when the interest rates and inflation are in the position they are now.
There have been huge sectoral pains for tech, bio-tech, emerging market, and growth stocks in the last couple of weeks, but JPMorgan says it's time to turn bullish on these beta positions. Analyst Kolanovic said that these equity sectors are about to benefit because many of the geopolitical risk and macro pressures are about to ease. JPMorgan’s analyst believes that there will be little inflation and the US will avoid a recession. Biotech has been beat down since last August when the Nasdaq Biotech Index peaked; it is now at 75% of its previous high.
Finsum: The Fed projections could be bad for tech stocks as higher interest rates decrease the relative value of techs profits.
Model portfolios have been a surprisingly quick growing tool for the financial industry in the last year, and Morgan sStanley’s Wealth Management is capitalizing by adding a series of new model portfolios. These strategies will have hefty minimums of $750k to $1.5 million and are targeting tax and direct indexing strategies from the recently acquired Parametric. This was a key reason Morgan Stanley acquired Parametric last year to rapidly develop and deploy direct indexing strategies. Overall the portfolios have acquired $150 million in assets since their inception in January.
Finsum: Financial companies took a page out of tech companies playbook by just acquiring the companies that might align with them and allow the to quickly scale when it came to direct indexing.
February was a bad month for fixed income ETFs which saw $32.2 billion in outflows. This marks the third straight month in a row of outflows. However, fixed income wasn’t the only category suffering in February; many traditional funds like money markets and stock/mixed asset funds saw outflows as well. This is an overall bearish sentiment that is creeping across the market, and signals that investors are worried about future rate hikes for the Fed. However, alternative funds continue to be on a win streak as they had their strongest inflows in over a year and have 11 consecutive months of inflows.
Finsum: There is a stronger correlation with stocks and bonds than there was thirty years ago and many investors are turning away from bond funds in the face of volatility.