Displaying items by tag: Goldman Sachs

Tuesday, 31 March 2020 10:05

Goldman Says the Market Has Not Bottomed

(New York)

In what comes as a very important announcement right now, Goldman Sachs argues that the stock market has not bottomed, and that it will take three things happening for the nadir to arrive. In order for markets to reach a bottom and start to sustainably rise, Goldman says case numbers must start to fall, there must be evidence that Fed and Congressional efforts are sufficient to support the economy, and investor sentiment and market positioning must bottom out (which has not even close to happened yet, according to GS). Goldman expects the S&P 500 to finish the year at 3,000.


FINSUM: We agree with the first two points (about case numbers and stimulus), but the third argument about positioning seems circular to us, as it relies on the markets getting worse before getting better.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Monday, 23 March 2020 16:07

Morgan Stanley Says 30% GDP Fall in Q2

(Washington)

The forecasts for growth have been reverberating through markets. When this whole crisis started, Goldman Sachs initially said there would be a 5% drop in GDP in the second quarter. Oh how delightful that sounds now. Things have escalated considerably since then. Here is a smattering of various Q2 GDP forecasts: Goldman Sachs at 24% decline, Morgan Stanley at 30%, and the St. Louis Fed at a whopping 50% decline.


FINSUM: We think it is safe to assume that the GDP decline in Q2 is going to massive. So much so that the actual figure matters much less than the pace at which the economy bounces back thereafter. Is it going to be a V-shaped recovery, or a U, or the dreaded “L-shaped” recovery?

Published in Eq: Total Market

(New York)

Goldman Sachs has put out some very concerning forecasts this morning. The bank thinks US GDP is going to shrink massively in Q2, down 5%. Goldman also thinks the S&P 500 won’t find a floor until it hits 2,000, another ~25% below current levels. The bank also believes 50% of Americans will contract the virus and that “peak virus” will occur within 8 weeks. Despite the gloomy predictions, the bank contends the markets will recover quickly in the second half of the year, with the S&P 500 rising back to 3,200.


FINSUM: This seems like a realistically bearish call on what is happening, with a very bullish medium-term outlook. Our gut instinct is that this seems a good prediction.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Monday, 10 February 2020 09:10

Goldman Says Coronavirus Market Impact Limited

(New York)

Every investor is trying to figure out if coronavirus is going to have a major impact on markets this year, or will soon just be a forgotten blip. Goldman Sachs has weighed in on the issue and says investors should not worry much, as coronavirus’ impact will be “limited”. The bank says coronavirus could slow US growth by 0.5 percentage points in the first quarter, but that would easily be made up in Q2 and Q3. According to Goldman, “Investors who believe the economic consequences of the coronavirus will be limited should increase exposure to cyclicals and value stocks”.


FINSUM: We aren’t sure we entirely agree. A lot of this depends on how long the virus keeps China shut down. Growth there is not as great as during SARS in 2003, so this could actually lead to a global recession.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Wednesday, 15 January 2020 13:20

The Big Goldman Earnings Disappointment

(New York)

The stage was set for Goldman to knock it out of the park. JP Morgan had just released the best US bank earnings ever and other banks were looking strong heading into earnings season. Goldman has a new CEO and has made big changes to its business. It felt like this might be the start of a new era for the bank signified by some great earnings. Instead, it all fell flat. Goldman’s net income fell a whopping 26% and missed earnings per share estimates by a mile. That said, revenues did rise 23%, but litigation costs hurt the bottom line.


FINSUM: It wasn’t meant to be this quarter, and don’t be fooled by the big revenue growth as it mostly came from a huge surge in fixed income revenue, which is not sustainable quarter to quarter.

Published in Eq: Financials
Page 10 of 22

Contact Us

Newsletter

Subscribe

Subscribe to our daily newsletter

Top
We use cookies to improve our website. By continuing to use this website, you are giving consent to cookies being used. More details…