Displaying items by tag: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs swiftly raised its one-month projection for Brent to $115 a barrel, a $20 price increase from their previous projection. Not only that they say there are still lots of upside risks if there is further disruption or escalation. The only thing that could hold higher oil prices off would be a complete deterioration of demand by the US and Western Europe. More sanctions are upcoming from the west as Russian banks will be banned from SWIFT payment systems. Commodities are also facing higher price pressures with both threats to payment methods for Russian goods and restrictions to Russian commodities to the wider West. On top of all of this shale supply will fail to compensate for the current demand and OPEC+ will have to step in if there is to be any relief in oil prices.

Finsum: This is a good time to by energy bonds as payment streams will surely be in supply with higher gas prices.

Goldman Sachs lowered their most recent median projection for equities, putting the year-end target for the S&P 500 at 4,900. It's clear the markets hadn’t accurately priced in the Ukraine risk which could be worse in Goldman’s eyes than the 2014 Crimea annexation. Additionally, Goldman warned that if inflation continues to be worse than their expectations and faster rate hikes are needed the S&P 500 could decline by up to 12% to 3,900 by end of 2022, and if a recession occurs when the trough is lower yet. The best plays are in industrials and consumer discretionary, but still, energy leads the way.

Finsum: In lockstep with Goldman, a recession is a worst-case scenario. The TIPs market says inflation expectations are still moderate, so they shouldn’t overact to inflation.

ESG ETFs continue a fire streak and every single Wallstreet mainstay is launching funds as fast as they can. Goldman launched their latest fund this week Goldman Sachs Bloomberg Clean Energy Equity ETF which will be traded with the ticker GCLN. It will hopefully capitalize on the US transition to clean energy with a strong focus on equities. ESG has a strong track record as last year 13 ESG index funds with large caps crushed the S&P 500 with an almost 30% return. Goldman thinks the ESG movement is just in its infancy and this fund is a long-term strategy.

Finsum: The rapid growth in ESG funds is starting to teeter on bubble territory, but that bubble could pop a long time from now.

Quantitative easing was the process of flooding the market with money in exchange for buying up long-term government debt and MBS; quantitative tightening was coined by Citigroup in order to describe the unwinding of this process. Goldman Sachs says this is causing increased volatility and sapping liquidity out of the treasury market. This QT could come with an abundance of arbitrage opportunities particularly in U.S. interest rate markets. Additionally, Goldman says QT will widen the gaps in new and old securities and narrow treasury yields and swap rates. F

INSUM: The treasury market is ripe for turmoil with the upcoming rate hike in March.

Fidelity made a splash with its announcement of a $5,000 minimum direct indexing product a couple of weeks ago, and there has been a rush by Vanguard, JPMorgan, and BlackRock to acquire direct indexing firms. Goldman has been a long-time investor provider of direct indexing services, in fact over 20 years ago. Goldman specialized in wealthier clients with a minimum investment of $250,000. Goldman offers software tools for clients to use to add and drop stocks from indices. Most of the time they do this for tax purposes but sometimes clients customize by dropping equity sinners like fossil fuels or prisons. Goldman's direct indexing is a form of active management with higher fees than passive funds, but certainly more futures.

FINSUM: The advent of direct indexing for all will be an interesting follow as lower minimums become the new norm.