Eq: Total Market
BlackRock's active management has long been the forgotten investment in the firm's giant ETF basket they manage, but things are starting to turn. While the index business hit $10 trillion in the last quarter it was the active funds dring the fee growth in fact in the last quarter of 2021 they were responsible for 60% of the fee growth. The firm has poured lots of resources into their active funds and their active fixed-income has been a huge winner. The firm seems more willing now than ever to place itself as a big active manager where they have always been synonymous with passive investing. BlackRock credits its growth to its own internal push in active management but there has been a huge industry-wide surge in active funds.
FINSUM: Active equity still lags behind for lots of reasons, so its probably best to stick to direct indexing or ETFs in equity markets.
David Kostin, a strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., took a bearish tilt on U.S. stocks worrying about risks that may be on the road ahead. Goldman is far from the only bear on Wallstreet, Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley says that the fair value of the S&P 500 is closer to 4,000. This would be a 10% downturn in the S&P if fully realized. Goldman isn’t that pessimistic but if real U.S. treasury yields rise 60 basis points then that will be their baseline. The median forecast is still quite positive for the S&P 500 by the end of the year with a target price close to around 5,100. However, Wallstreet says the antidote is to focus on quality and energy stocks.
FINSUM: Wall street is forgetting how bad sustained realized inflation will be for the market; it's without a doubt the biggest risk, because companies are used to operating with systematic sub 2% inflation.
David Booth’s Dimensional Advisors hasn’t been a part of the active ETF market for long in fact just a meager 14 months, but that hasn’t stopped it from rising to the top of the active market. Since last November they have rocketed to over $46 billion in active assets. Overall active management is growing rapidly and going to be a trillion-dollar trend of converting mutuals to ETF’s. However, Dimensional’s newly launched active fixed-income is flying off the shelves with nearly $1 billion in assets since their inception in November. While the lion’s share has been converted, this fixed-income segment is among some of the fastest pure growth in the fixed income ETF market.
FINSUM: Within the ETF segment, active ETFs have been growing strongly, and this is at the forefront of a new trend.
Goldman and many other Forecasters have upped their projections for the number of rate hikes in 2022, but most are calling for a timid four in order for the fed to better combat inflation. CEO of JPMorgan Dimon, however, sees a much more aggressive Fed. Dimon says the Fed will hike rates six or seven times in 2022, which would bring the baseline FFR up to a whopping 2%. Dimon says 200 basis points used to be an overnight adventure for the Fed during the Volcker administration. Despite these wildly hawkish projections Dimon still sees the fed threading the needle and maintaining a balanced growth path while fighting inflation. Others called Dimon’s projections irresponsible and said the market would suffer greatly for hikes that severe.
FINSUM: There is no way the Fed could hike rates 2% in 2022 and maintain a balanced growth path, however, the Powell Fed bringing inflation back down and not taking the economy is still the most likely outcome, just not under seven rate hikes.
Goldman Sachs updated its path for Fed tightening in 2022 calling for four rate hikes instead of three in 2022. This is a fairly aggressive path for tightening as the current Fed target interest rate is between 0%-.25% which means it will hit around 1-1.25 by Goldman’s forecast. The biggest reason for the rate rises is the tightening labor market. Previously the Fed leaned on slack in the labor market as an excuse to brush off inflation concerns but now they are no longer doing that. Goldman has the hikes penciled in for each quarter March, June, September, and now December. Goldman saw regional San Francisco President Mary Daly’s comments of shedding some balance sheet weight of indicating the Fed’s future path.
Finsum: The Fed hasn’t tightened this quickly in the post-financial crisis era, but broadly the markets and yields are in lock step with Goldman’s predictions.
JPMorgan Chase & Co issued a statement for investors to remain bullish about global equities moving forward. They believe the largest sources of risk are hawkish central banks, slowing growth in China, and global covid restrictions, but most of these threats are already priced in. Even if they aren’t quite priced in the chances of them really materializing is minimal. They remain positive as benchmark indices remain at near all-time highs. This sentiment is shared by lots on Wallstreet, like Credit Suisse. Moreover, to best take advantage of this growth, they advise to overweight Euro stocks, financial, commodity miners, and automobile manufactures.
FINSUM: The bears haven’t stopped barking but equities remain high and P/E ratios aren’t crazy, there’s room to run.