(New York)

One the tail risks for markets right now is the sharp downturn that is supposed to happen to the stock buyback market. Huge levels of corporate buybacks have been supporting US equities for years, but that is forecast to drop dramatically. While that may wound US stocks, it poses a major opportunity for another area: Europe. European stocks don’t see much in the way of buybacks, which has left them much less loved than the US recently. However, the declines in US buybacks are likely to make Europe look much more attractive.

FINSUM: European valuations are significantly more attractive than in the US, which means that if the playing field gets levelled by decreased buybacks, there is probably a good opportunity here. That said, Europe has a lot of economic issues right now.

(New York)

The market is right around all time highs and economic and earnings figures are healthy, all signs that the market is headed higher. That said, prices could take a dip at any time and many are worried about a reversal. Some are particularly worried about funds having to sell stocks to rebalance their holdings of equities versus bonds (which have performed poorly of late). So how can one profit from a market fall? Here is a good options strategy for doing so: buy S&P 500 put options at $287 and simultaneously sell $285 put options, both of which expire May 3rd. The market volatility has been low, so the options are cheap, and the spread strategy limits losses.

FINSUM: If you are just playing for volatility based on a likely rough month-end rebalancing, then this could be a good strategy.

(New York)

Investors beware, the muni bond market has gone through some dramatic moves over the last year, and the market looks like it might be headed for a downturn. Changes to the US’ tax policy have caused massive inflows to muni bonds as investors try to minimize their taxes. This has caused yields to plunge and spreads to Treasuries to widen. The average ten-year muni yield is now just 1.965% versus 2.6% in 10-year Treasuries, the widest gap since at least 2009. Munis in high tax states have plunged even further, with a recent California issuance having a yield of just 1.73%. One portfolio manager warns investors that they need to be responsive, saying “The best place for investors to be is shorter duration, higher-quality credit, so when opportunities present themselves, they have the flexibility to take them … You can’t really set it and forget it”.

FINSUM: This is a hard situation to call. On the one hand, the rapid fall in yields is worrying and the market seems overbought, but on the other hand, you have somewhat artificial demand being created by the government, which makes the behavior less risky and more sustainable in our view.

(New York)

So what are the most popular funds held by mutual fund managers right now? This is always an interesting question, not only because it can give one ideas, but also because it can serve as a counter-indicator. Stocks that are very widely held tend to be over-bought and the most at-risk of falling sharply. The most popular stocks right now are Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa, Apple, Nestle, and Exxon-Mobil. Speaking about the outlook for these stocks, UBS, who made this report, says “Once these trades reach their critical value, or an exogenous shock occurs, we expect a sharp price reversal as investors unwind their exposure in tandem”.

FINSUM: Nothing particularly interesting in those top holdings, so the downside risk of them being there seems the most relevant.

(New York)

Any investor in ETFs will have noticed the marked rise of “factors” over the last few years. These are technical or conceptual overlays that managers use to create a theme for a fund. They are generally predicated on some type of data, like “quality” or “momentum”, both of which are well-studied. However, lately there has been an explosion of new factors which are being employed in funds. The problem is that many of these are not being observed on a long enough timeline to see if they are relevant. In practice, this means that a lot of funds are predicated around strategies that do not have any proof of concept.

FINSUM: So we have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, some factors seem clearly frivolous, while others which may also be quite new, seem to be a good angle on the current market environment. The key is to be very discerning in choosing these types of funds.