The most successful macro investors don’t rely on predictions, they rely on true diversification. Rather than attempting to forecast markets, they construct portfolios of uncorrelated or negatively correlated assets that improve returns without adding risk. 

When multiple asset classes move independently, investors can use modest leverage to amplify gains while maintaining controlled volatility. This approach allows a portfolio with the same 5% volatility to generate higher expected returns simply by expanding exposure across uncorrelated assets. 

However, the strategy requires vigilance, as correlations can shift suddenly, undermining diversification’s benefits. 

Finsum: The foundation of long-term macro success lies in true diversification, careful leverage, and disciplined risk management.