Displaying items by tag: China

(Beijing)

Bloomberg has published a very interesting article arguing that China’s economy and financial system might be on the edge of implosion. The publication mentions that the government’s bailout of Baoshang Bank last month has put money markets on edge, and for the first time, short-term lending between big institutions has started to freeze up. For the first time in decades, lenders are facing the prospect of defaults and haircuts on loans to other financial institutions. This has led funding costs for companies to shoot higher.

FINSUM: As is the norm with China, we have little direct insight into this. However, if you take a step back and look at the overall pressure on the economy from the trade war and combine it with the data above, it does sound like something very nasty could be brewing.

(Hong Kong)

Hong Kong has erupted into full scale riots with over 1m people taking to the streets. Protesters are angry over a new measure that would allow mainland China to extradite accused criminals from Hong Kong to their courts, a measure which many in Hong Kong say is a clear violation of China’s agreement to leave Hong Kong’s freedoms in place for 50 years. The US has condemned the measure in serious terms, but the reality is that Hong Kong’s fate, and the US’ protection of the city-state, may become a pawn in the trade war, with the US government using it as an element to help it get a better deal.

FINSUM: This seems like one more way for Beijing to exert control on Hong Kong, and we dislike it as much as the protesters on the street. There has been a furious international backlash to the proposal, but it remains to be seen how it may impact the trade war. One more thing we think is important to note: there are 85,000 Americans living in Hong Kong.

(San Francisco)

We ran a piece yesterday highlighting the risk of China using rare earth elements as a bargaining chip in the trade war. The US currently gets 80% of its rare earths from China, and the elements are used in everything from smartphones, glass, electric vehicles, and jet engines. The biggest loser if China blocks access could be Apple. The company is currently planning a ramp up in production for its new fall products, so according to Goldman Sachs “even a short term action affecting production could have longer term consequences for the company.”

FINSUM: It is hard to calculate the financial impact at this point, but we expect it could be significant given that these elements are key to smartphone production.

(Washington)

The next phase of the US-China trade war is coming, and it looks like it may be even worse. At the beginning both sides focused on levying higher tariffs on more goods, then Trump took the step of limiting China’s access to semiconductors with his ban on Huawei. Now the next phase may be much more specific and potentially damaging for the US—China is likely to limit the US’ access to rare earths used to make all kinds of technology devices. Access to such rare earth elements is one of the biggest US weaknesses in tech and Beijing has the power to block access because the US imports 80% of its rare earths from China.

FINSUM: It is hard to tell how bad this could be. On the one hand, the total US imports of Chinese rare earths are only $160m, but on the other, if there is not another easy source then it could hamstring the businesses that use them.

(New York)

The market has been worried that the trade war may prove inflationary. Higher tariffs would mean higher prices passed along to customers, in turn raising inflation. This is scary because it means the US could get caught in a stagnant economy with higher inflation, which would keep the Fed from cutting. However, the reality is that the trade war may in fact be deflationary instead. The reason why is two-part. Firstly, governments, businesses, and consumers are likely to take actions to off-set the rise in costs; and secondly, the economic toll may hurt the economy so that prices cannot rise.

FINSUM: We do not think tariffs will be inflationary. Thinking of them as automatically inflationary is very narrow-minded, as it does not actually take into account the effects tariffs will have on aggregate demand.