Displaying items by tag: real estate

What is the best way to manage a portfolio in an era with less structural disinflation, and how can you improve upon the 60/40 in the current environment 

 The traditional 60/40 portfolio, consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, has long been a benchmark, balancing growth from stocks with stability from bonds. However, the historical success of this model relies on a period of declining interest rates and favorable economic conditions in the U.S., which may not persist in the future. 

As interest rates stop declining and inflation potentially rises, the performance of the 60/40 portfolio is expected to be less impressive, especially during high inflation periods when energy and commodities tend to outperform. To better manage portfolios in this new environment, it’s advisable to diversify beyond the 60/40 mix by including assets like commodities, real estate, and cash equivalents to hedge against inflation and provide more stability during economic shifts.

Finsum: We have seen an increased correlation between stocks and bonds in the most recent years suggesting alternative diversification to manage volatility. 

Entering 2024, the consensus was that the Federal Reserve would be cutting rates in the back half of the year in response to falling inflation and a slowing economy. This has major implications for private real estate, given that trillions of dollars in loans are maturing over the next couple of years. 

Yet, economic data and inflation have been more resilient than expected. Now, rate cut odds have narrowed, while there is some chatter that the Fed may have to tighten further. Currently, the Fed continues to signal that its next move is to cut rates, albeit later and to a lesser extent than previously thought. 

Still, this is likely to be uncomfortable for many borrowers, as many are holding onto properties based on the belief that rates will be lower, leading to more favorable selling or refinancing conditions. This is especially the case for those exposed to floating-rate debt. 

According to Richard Mack, the CEO and co-founder of Mack Real Estate Group, “People are paying to hold assets, but unless rents rise quickly, eventually asset prices will have to adjust to rates instead of hoping and anticipating rate decreases. In essence, you have to pay to wait and see what kind of recovery transpires, which is different from past cycles where interim cash flow paid you to wait for appreciation.” 

Finsum: Many were confident that conditions for real estate would improve as the Fed eased policy in the second half of the year. Now, many borrowers are likely to face increased stress as rate-cut expectations have been scaled back.

In 2023, the housing market reached unprecedented heights, with median home prices soaring to an all-time high of $389,800.

While mortgage rates reached 40-year highs there was still robust demand as the microeconomics of the market continued to put upward pressure on prices. Experts predict that this trend will continue into 2024, as mortgage rates are expected to decline due to the Federal Reserve’s plan to lower benchmark interest rates.

REITs, traded on stock exchanges, allow investors to gain exposure to real estate without direct property ownership. They distribute at least 90% of taxable income to shareholders through dividends. 

While real estate investment trusts (REITs) are popular for diversifying portfolios and generating passive income, the private real estate market also offers rewarding opportunities. They can have higher IRR with more active positions but carry increased liquidity risk. 

Finsum: Investors should be extra cautious of liquidity risk in high interest rates, but the returns could certainly be worth it. 

Real estate investment trusts, known as REITs, are renowned for their attractive dividend yields, as they are legally obligated to distribute 90% of their post-tax earnings to shareholders. However, REITs are highly sensitive to various market factors such as interest rates, inflation, leverage, and regulatory changes, posing liquidity concerns for investors.

While dividend yield is crucial, conservative investors also consider factors like analyst ratings and liquidity when evaluating REITs. The highest-yielding REITs, according to Rick Orford, based on specific criteria, including annual dividend percentage, trading volume, number of analysts, and current analyst ratings are Vici Properties, showcasing notable revenue growth and offering a promising dividend yield of 5.71%. Starwood Property Trust, recognized as the largest commercial mortgage REIT in the US, presents a forward yield of 9.81%, notwithstanding mixed financial performance in 2023. Redwood Trust emerges as a standout contender with the highest forward yield of 11.24% and an optimistic outlook for future earnings growth, bolstered by its diversified investment portfolio.

Finsum: If interest rates have peaked REITs are poised to deliver huge returns in 2024 and 2025.

KKR recently shared its growth strategy for alternative investments geared towards wealthy individual investors. Initially, it plans to offer products focused on private credit, private equity, infrastructure, and real estate and aims to distribute them through financial advisors. The firm has noted strong interest from wealth managers and registered investment advisors. It believes that its 48 years of experience in the space and strong legacy will differentiate KKR from its competitors.

According to Eric Mogelof, KKR’s head of Global Client Solutions, “Private wealth is a transformational opportunity for KKR. Private wealth is large, it’s growing quickly, and importantly, allocations to alternatives in this space are only going in one direction, and that is up.” KKR sees alternatives accounting for 6% of the private wealth market by 2027, a sharp increase from its 2% share in 2022. 

This series of products will offer qualified investors the same type of access as institutional clients without any additional fees. KKR also believes that these products will be more liquid than competing alternatives. The firm also sees momentum to offer even more alternative product types in the near future. This is in response to their conversations with advisors, banks, wirehouses, and brokers, who have found that allocations to alternatives are increasing. 

Finsum: KKR sees a big opportunity in alternative investments and is launching a suite of products. It hopes to target wealthy investors through financial advisors.