Entering 2024, the consensus was that the Federal Reserve would be cutting rates in the back half of the year in response to falling inflation and a slowing economy. This has major implications for private real estate, given that trillions of dollars in loans are maturing over the next couple of years. 

Yet, economic data and inflation have been more resilient than expected. Now, rate cut odds have narrowed, while there is some chatter that the Fed may have to tighten further. Currently, the Fed continues to signal that its next move is to cut rates, albeit later and to a lesser extent than previously thought. 

Still, this is likely to be uncomfortable for many borrowers, as many are holding onto properties based on the belief that rates will be lower, leading to more favorable selling or refinancing conditions. This is especially the case for those exposed to floating-rate debt. 

According to Richard Mack, the CEO and co-founder of Mack Real Estate Group, “People are paying to hold assets, but unless rents rise quickly, eventually asset prices will have to adjust to rates instead of hoping and anticipating rate decreases. In essence, you have to pay to wait and see what kind of recovery transpires, which is different from past cycles where interim cash flow paid you to wait for appreciation.” 

Finsum: Many were confident that conditions for real estate would improve as the Fed eased policy in the second half of the year. Now, many borrowers are likely to face increased stress as rate-cut expectations have been scaled back.