According to Echelon Insights, 2024 will be another strong year for M&A activity with larger RIAs picking up smaller firms. This follows a strong year for the industry in 2023 despite headwinds such as higher borrowing costs which impacted buyers’ ability to impact financing. Yet, the robustness of M&A in less than ideal conditions reveals strong fundamentals.

In 2023, there were more than 320 deals for RIAs. It was the second-highest year on record other than 2022 which saw 342 deals. Over the last 5 years, the number of deals in the space have grown at a 12.1% annual compounded rate. Average assets per transaction was up 4%, while private equity was the most aggressive acquirer. In total, the sector was involved in 71% of deals and added cumulative assets of $466 billion.

Last year, the largest transactions in terms of asset size were Captrust and Cetera Financial Group. Cetera acquired Avanax for $1.2 billion to bolster its succession planning offerings and tax and wealth management capabilities. Captrust acquired Trutina Financial for $1.1 billion and had a total of 8 deals, adding $14 billion in assets. 

Finsum: Research firm Echelon Insights is forecasting another strong year for RIA M&A activity in 2024. 2023 had the second-most number of deals, despite several macro headwinds. 

PIMCO sees a changed environment in 2024 as the Fed will pivot to rate cuts. However, it sees the impact of prior rate hikes still impacting economies and leading to stagnation or a mild contraction. 

Financial markets will be focusing on the timing and pace of rate cuts. Based on history, central banks don’t ease in anticipation of economic weakness. Instead, they tend to cut only after recessionary conditions materialize and tend to cut more than expected by the market. 

PIMCO agrees with Chair Powell that inflation and growth risks are now more ‘symmetrical’. However, it believes the market is underpricing recession risk especially given that some assets are already priced for a soft landing given the strong rally in many assets over the past few months. 

It also believes that fixed income is particularly appropriate for this environment given that yields are still close to multi-decade highs. It also offers protection and upside in the event of economic conditions deteriorating. Within the asset class, it favors mortgage-backed securities and believes investors should stick to medium-duration bonds as yields are attractive while interest rate risk is reduced. On a longer-term basis, PIMCO sees neutral policy rates to reach similar levels to before the pandemic which is also supportive of the category. 

Finsum: PIMCO sees financial conditions easing in 2024 as the Fed cuts rates, but economic conditions will deteriorate given the delayed impact of tight monetary policy.

One persistent challenge for financial advisors is communications around annuities. According to a new research report from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, many advisors forgo recommending annuities to clients due to these concerns even when there is a risk that a client may outlive their funds. Additionally, advisors also report that clients often don’t take their advice when it comes to buying annuities which is one possible explanation for advisors’ reluctance.

The research report explores the question of why Americans don’t buy annuities despite the ubiquitous fear of running out of money during retirement and the desire to shield investments from volatility. 

Currently, only about 10% of older Americans have purchased an annuity. The research identifies a major issue as advisors are unlikely to recommend annuities and even when these recommendations are made, clients are unlikely to act on it.  

The research suggests that the issue is less about understanding the complexities of the product. In fact, most households with assets over $100,000 were either not familiar or only ‘somewhat familiar’ with annuities. Thus, there needs to be more awareness about annuities and the process of buying one needs to be simplified. Advisors should seek to clarify the steps involved and explain the decisions that need to be made.

Finsum: Americans have very low ownership rates of annuities. This is despite the common fear of running out of money during retirement and concerns that market volatility could impact investments. 

Two of the largest domestic natural gas producers and leaders in shale production, Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy, have agreed to merge in a $7.4 billion deal. This continues a wave of M&A activity in the energy sector. For 2024, this is expected to continue given that many companies are flush with cash, while valuations are also attractive.

The merger is an all-stock transaction and is expected to close in the second quarter. According to Chesapeake CEO Nick Dell’Osso, the merger will enable them to compete on an international scale and lead to lower costs. The new, combined company will have a new name and a market cap of around $24 billion. It forecasts 15 years of inventory and expects a 20% increase in dividends due to “significant synergies” and an increase in free cash flow generation over the next 5 years. 

Last year, there were a handful of deals in the sector as ExxonMobil bought Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion, while Chevron bought Hess for $53 billion. Both companies were looking to boost production capacity. In 2024, analysts are forecasting that major energy producers will be looking to acquire high-quality shale holdings in public and private markets.

Finsum: Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy agreed to a $7.4 billion merger. Analysts are expecting more M&A activity in the sector in the coming year.

There’s a major drawback to today’s hyper-connected world where investors are constantly receiving financial advice that is mostly short-term and doesn’t necessarily have the investors’ best interests in mind. Contrast that approach to a long-term, fundamental based approach that is based on timeless principles rather than impulsive thinking.

Recently, there has been a narrative that individuals should be buying individual bonds. Adam Abbas, a portfolio manager at Oakmark Funds, pushed back against this notion and made the case for why most investors are better off with mutual funds and ETFs. 

He acknowledges that bonds look very appealing given where rates are relative to historic levels and that default rates for high-quality securities are likely to remain low. However, the risk climbs when investors start ‘reaching for yield’ which tends to happen with individual investors. Therefore, some sort of comprehensive credit analysis is required from a bottom-up perspective. 

Further, most individual investors will not be able to sufficiently diversify their portfolios. This means that their portfolios would be damaged by a corporate bond default. In addition to understanding companies, investors also need to have a grasp on the macro picture as factors like inflation or rate policy can also impact returns. 

Given these difficulties, most investors are better off choosing an astute active manager to invest in bonds as they will conduct proper due diligence and ensure that portfolios are sufficiently diversified. 

Finsum: There’s a trend of individual investors buying individual bonds. Oakmark’s Adam Abbas pushes back against this and makes the case for why most investors are better off with a mutual fund or ETF.