Markets
(New York)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals was a shining star amongst the already bright biotech industry. In the nearly decade-long stretch…See the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
(Beijing)
The Chinese banking sector has a tighter leash with regulators than most all other countries. For the most part, this…See the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site.
(New York)
Some analysts think that investment grade (IG) bonds might see some very rough times ahead. In fact, one analyst from Pavilion Global Markets says that IG bonds have “virtually no value proposition under any given economic scenario”. Think about the following package of information taken as a whole: 1. iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF has lost 6.6% this year; 2. IG yields are well below 6.6%; 3. Investors have been pouring money in IG bond mutual funds and ETFs. So IG bonds are losing value much more quickly than they are yielding, which spells a recipe for disaster to some. According to the same analyst “be mindful of the potential for significant outflows in the days to come”.
FINSUM: We can’t say we agree here. While fixed income as a whole looks fragile right now, the losses have provided room for IG bonds to appreciate as the economy and earnings improve. We do not think it will be all bad news.
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(New York)
The Pandemic has shifted the paradigm for many investors as they look to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) to make up a larger share of their portfolio. ESG will shape the future of investing but there is a new way to invest in green companies with a new twist. Sustainably linked bonds (SLB) allow firms to receive money for green energy initiatives but rather they will pay a penalty if they don’t meet expectations. Marilyn Ceci head of ESG development at JP Morgan expects SLB to hit $120-150 billion despite issuance since inception being only around $20 billion. SLB isn’t a threat to ESG as the industry is expected to grow from $270 billion last year to over $400 billion this year, but rather a compliment to the growing industry. ESG's ability to withstand the full business cycle is a testament to its future. FINSUM: SLB’s offer many companies a way to a greener future without an explicit plan, and are a reflection of how large ESG is growing. Other companies need a way to keep up with this burgeoning bond market.
(New York)
There might be a great migration in the cards for bonds. While many have spoken of a broad migration into equities that occurred over the last year, a smaller scale change might be about to occur within bonds. Treasuries have been getting hammered, and corporate bonds are appearing increasingly attractive to investors for a number of reasons. Firstly, their durations tend to be much shorter, meaning they have significantly lower interest rate risk—crucial right now. And secondly, with the economy picking up, earnings and business health are looking brighter and brighter.
FINSUM: Aviva Investors thinks corporate bonds have a nice pathway to gain. While rates are working against corporate bonds, the fundamentals are strong. If yields finally stabilize under 2%, it is easy to imagine investors piling into corporate bonds as the recovery strengthens.
(New York)
The prospect for rising inflation has been terrifying the market, and investors need a way to play it. April gold futures peaked at $1750 on intraday trading after the recent Federal Reserve decision to leave the federal funds rate unchanged, and that tells investors something important: gold may be the way to go. Moreover, Powell said the fed funds rate would remain unchanged until 2023, even if economic news improved. The Fed even plans to tolerate higher than 2% inflation given inflation has averaged well below the Fed’s Target the past year. This was enough to spike gold prices as investors are now as concerned about future inflation as many investors see the commodity as a hedge. Treasury yield rises had many investors worried the Fed would preemptively tighten, and Gold was down before investors realized how committed the Fed was.
FINSUM: Spreads between inflation-indexed and nominal bonds (TIPS spreads) indicate that rising yields are driven by inflation risk. Gold is one of the most assured hedges against future Inflation.