Wealth Management
July saw a slowing of inflows into fixed income ETFs, while inflows into equity ETFs ramped higher. $17 billion flowed into bond ETFs which was dwarfed by the $43 billion of inflows into equity ETFs. For the month, the 3 most popular fixed income ETFs were the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF, the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, and the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF.
This isn’t totally surprising given the poor performance of bonds in recent months due to a surprisingly resilient US economy which is leading to increased odds of more hikes and higher rates for longer and decreased odds of a Fed rate cut and continued cooling of inflation. In contrast, equity markets have been on fire with the S&P 500 now closing in on it's all-time highs from January 2022 while many tech stocks and indices are already at new highs.
Overall in 2023, the share of inflows has been pretty balanced between fixed income and equity ETFs which is a new development as typically equity ETF inflows dominate. This is largely due to investors wanting to take advantage of higher yields and advisors and institutions becoming more comfortable with fixed income ETFs.
Finsum: There was a slowdown of inflows into fixed income ETFs in July due to increasing volatility and more uncertainty about the Fed’s rate hike path.
For Vettafi’s ETF Database, James Comtois discusses the democratization of direct indexing due to technology and increasing popularity. Initially, direct indexing was only available for ultra high net-worth investors due to its cost and complexity. Yet, technology and financial innovations have now made it quite easy, and we are seeing many firms offer it to clients with as little as $10,000 to invest.
A key to it becoming accessible for investors with smaller accounts is the reduction in trading costs. The optimal direct indexing strategy is to regularly scan an account for tax loss harvesting opportunities which can be used to offset capital gains. This leads to increased trading activity as these positions are replaced with other stocks that have similar factor scores. However, this is only feasible for smaller accounts due to the drastic decline in transaction costs over the last decade.
Not surprisingly, nearly every advisorship is adding these offerings. At the Exchange 2023 Conference, Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley exclaimed that Vanguard will “be investing heavily” in direct indexing and that every advisor should consider “using direct indexing for their taxable client accounts.” Currently, $260 billion of client assets are being managed with direct indexing. This figure is expected to exceed $1 trillion over the next decade, underscoring the opportunity for advisors and risk for those that are left behind.
Finsum: Direct indexing has become increasingly accessible to smaller investors over the last couple of years due to increased demand, technology, and decline in trading costs.
LPL is partnering with MSCI to add direct indexing capabilities to its suite of model portfolios. Advisors will be able to access these features through custom indexed separately managed accounts. Direct indexing is a growth market for advisors due to its ability to provide tax savings in down years, a slight increase in returns, and more personalization.
The company made the announcement at its Focus 2023 event. LPL is currently the largest independent broker-dealer in the United States with nearly 20,000 advisors and over $1.1 trillion in assets.
Rob Pettman, executive VP of Wealth Management Solutions said that “Investors want the ability to customize their investment strategy in order to achieve a range of goals, including reducing overall tax burden and/or avoiding a particular sector or security.”
The new offering will have a $100,000 minimum and include models for large-caps, small-caps, mid-caps, and international stocks. They will have the MSCI USA and EAFE indices as the basis for these portfolios.
There will also be an option for automatic tax-loss harvesting which can be optimized according to each client’s portfolio. Overall, the firm believes that direct indexing will also help with attracting and retaining clients especially with nearly all of LPL’s competitors offering direct indexing.
Finsum: LPL joined the model portfolio race and is partnering with MSCI to offer a variety of options and capabilities.
More...
In 2022, active ETFs accounted for 15% of total global inflows into ETFs. In 2023, active ETFs now account for 25% of total inflows.
Is this a temporary blip due to the current environment of economic uncertainty and high rates and inflation? Or, is this a new trend that we should expect to continue for the foreseeable future.
In a recent report, State Street supports the latter argument. The asset manager sees recent regulatory reform as a major catalyst for growth in the active sector. Rule 6c-11 modernized the process to launch ETF, shortening the runway from many years to 60 days. This has resulted in an explosion of ETF offerings. In the last 3 years, 750 active ETFs have been created, while only 325 were created in the 11 years prior to Rule 6c-11.
Another regulatory change is that ETF providers are able to be slightly less transparent with their holdings. This has led many managers to launch their own ETFs who were previously concerned about giving their best ideas for free. And, it’s also led many mutual funds to also offer active ETFs with similar strategies.
It’s particularly bullish on active fixed income ETFs as it sees more room for innovation in the space. And, it notes that many advisors and institutions are just becoming familiar with the asset class.
Finsum: Active fixed income and equity ETFs are seeing incredible growth over the last couple of years due to a combination of regulatory changes and innovation.
There are many ways for investors to buy Treasuries, but the increasingly popular option is through the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) which is a blend of 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. Currently, this fixed income ETF offers a yield of 3% and is down 2% YTD.
The ETF has been hammered in recent sessions due to Fitch’s downgrade of US debt, larger than expected budget deficits, and rates that are likely to stay elevated at least into Q1 of next year. Another potential reason for TLT’s poor performance in recent sessions is that Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman unveiled a bet against TLT and long-duration Treasuries.
Ackman shared his reasoning on Twitter. He believes that ‘structural’ changes in the world such as the re-shoring of supply chains, an increase in defense spending, electrification of the energy sector, aging demographics, and a tight labor market are indicators that inflation is going to remain high for a meaningfully long period of time.
Based on this, he believes that long-term Treasuries will need to offer higher yields to lure investors, while they remain currently priced as if inflation is transitory given the 30-year’s current yield of 4.2% inflation. He believes that it should be yielding between 5.5% and 6% given his expectations of inflation, implying losses between 31% and 43%.
Finsum: Bill Ackman is one of the most successful investors of his generation. Recently, he unveiled a short position against long Treasuries and TLT, one of the most popular fixed income ETFs.
2023 was supposed to be the year of fixed income.
Coming into the year, the consensus was that fixed income would rally as the economy plunged into a recession, forcing the Fed to terminate its rate hike cycle and even begin cutting before the year was over. The bond bulls got another catalyst following the regional bank crisis which many believed would impair credit markets and also force the Fed’s hand.
Yet, these prognostications have proven to be false. Instead, the US economy continues to grow and add jobs every month. In fact, there are more signs that the economy could be re-accelerating rather than contracting. As a result, the Fed continues to hike, and bonds have given up all their gains on the year.
Despite consensus predictions proving wrong, most Wall Street analysts remain bullish on fixed income. They continue to believe that yields are at or near their ‘cycle highs’ and that a trifecta of factors like cooling inflation, mild economic growth, and geopolitical risks mean that investors should continue adding exposure especially given that equities are unattractive from a valuation perspective at the moment.
Finsum: 2023 was supposed to be a big comeback for fixed income given expectations of a recession in the second-half of the year. Yet, this has proven not to be the case.