Wealth Management
In a blog post for JPMorgan, Nancy Rooney, the Global Head of Managed Solutions, discusses how many investors have been aggressively buying short-duration fixed income given that yields are at their highest levels in decades and economic risks abound. Some of the most prominent ones include a slowing economy that many believe is likely to tip over into a recession, a standoff between Congressional Republicans and the White House over the debt ceiling, a stressed banking system, and a hawkish Fed.
While this move has paid off so far in 2023, Rooney raises some concerns that it may undermine investors’ efforts to reach their financial goals. Having too much allocation to fixed income and being underexposed to equities will hinder portfolio returns in the long-term. In fact, a portfolio solely in Treasuries would have failed to beat inflation over the last 30 years.
She recommends that investors think about equities as the growth engine for their portfolios, while Treasuries are more of a cushioning. This means that investors should consider using periods of fixed income outperformance to regularly rebalance their allocations in order to stay on track towards their financial goals.
Finsum: Fixed income has been a strong performer over the last couple of quarters. Yet, it doesn’t mean that investors should go overboard in increasing exposure to the asset class.
Until the last couple of years, there were limited opportunities for investors to earn a decent income from thier portfolios. Now due to the Fed’s rate hikes, the situation is much different as there are plenty of options for investors. In AdvisorPerspectives, Mike Smith and Mary Erwin of Russell Investments detail some considerations to reduce risk while optimizing for yield.
During the prior decade when low rates prevailed, many investors were forced to invest in riskier securities in order to generate a decent yield like international bonds, infrastructure bonds, and high-yield bonds. Now, investors can earn similar returns with securities that are much less riskier, but Smith and Erwin believe that investors should continue to have diversified exposure to the asset class given that inflation poses a major threat.
If inflation continues to climb, it reduces the value of these cash flows. Therefore, investors should ensure that their portfolios’ income will grow faster than inflation. Model portfolios can play an important role in this process as it can help build a diversified portfolio and offer exposure to a variety of asset classes with more potential for growth in their income streams.
Finsum: A major challenge for income investors over the next decade is ensuring that inflation doesn’t eat into their portfolios’ income stream.
In an article for WealthManagement, Iraklis Kourtidis shared his persepctive on direct indexing and what it precisely means. He says that there are two components to direct indexing. The first is that it helps an investor create a custom and personalized index. The second is that it can help with portfolio management to ensure that it tracks a specific benchmark.
With direct indexing, investors hold the actual securities themselves in a portfolio rather than an ETF or mutual fund which tracks an index. One advantage of this is that it enables an investor to create their own index. Previously, this wasn’t possible as index investing was only possible through ETFs and mutual funds which follow well-known indexes.
Some investors want the benefits of index investing in terms of diversification and low costs. But, they need greater personalization. One approach is to modify an existing index. Another is to create an index from scratch.
In terms of portfolio management, there are some additional challenges. For one, index holdings need to be constantly rebalanced especially when tax losses are being harvested to offset gains in other parts of the portfolio or when factor scores change.
Finsum: There are two parts of direct indexing, and each is crucial for success. One involves constructing a custom index, and the second is portfolio management.
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In an article for ETF.com by Michelle Lodge, she examines whether success in portfolio management is a matter of skill or luck. According to survey results from S&P Dow Jones, there is little connection between good choices made by a manager and portfolio performance.
According to Craig Lazarra, the Director of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones, “Our report for year-end 2022 finds little evidence of persistent active management success, despite considering a variety of metrics and lookback periods.”
According to the research, investors are better off with low-cost, diversified ETFs. Additionally, success in terms of picking stocks and ETFs is not repeatable. Additionally even in a poor year for passive funds, 51% of active managers still underperformed their benchmarks in 2022.
Another piece of evidence cited is that managers who outperformed in the first half of the last decade, failed to outperform in the second-half of the decade. The same dynamic appears with active fixed income managers with no indication that success in one year is likely to repeat in subsequent years.
Finsum: Research shows that active fixed income and equity outperformance is unlikely to repeat in following years.
2022 was one of the worst years in memory for fixed income amid raging inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Yet, conditions are much more favorable for the asset class in 2023 given a slowing economy and decelerating inflation. In an article for TheStreet’s ETF Focus channel, David Dierking discusses why short-term fixed income ETFs are a compelling option.
While, it’s likely that the Fed is done raising rates for now, the resilient economy and labor market mean that rates are likely to stay ‘higher for longer’. This favors fixed income with shorter maturities as investors can take advantage of high yields.
ALready, we are seeing this manifest as short-term bond ETFs were the recipient of 21% of net bond ETF inflows in Q1, even though they only account for 8% of the fixed income universe by total assets.
Additionally, many investors treat short-term bond ETFs as a cash equivalent given that they are extremely liquid, while paying generous yields. In fact, Fed policy is essentially encouraging this trade given the extremely inverted yield curve and rally in long-duration fixed income since March of this year.
Finsum: Short-term fixed income ETFs are seeing major inflows this year and are an intriguing option in the current market environment.
Compared to the first quarter of 2022, recruitment of financial advisors in Q1 2023 is down 16%. This shouldn’t be too surprising given the recent turmoil in the banking sector, concerns that the economy could tip over into a recession, and much of corporate America in belt-tightening mode. Devin McGinley in a piece for InvestmentNews dug into what the rest of the year should bring and highlighted some notable under the radar trends.
It will be interesting to see the fallout from the regional banking crisis as it may compel some advisors to leave. For instance, many First Republic advisors have already or are expected to leave the firm following JPMorgan's takeover of the beleaguered bank.
One bright spot has been growth in the RIA and independent broker-dealer space. In the first quarter, 261 advisors joined RIAs, while broker-dealers added 234 advisors which indicates that both are growing at a similar pace to last year.
Clearly, the data shows that overall recruitment of financial advisors has slowed. While there could be a burst of activity with advisors leaving regional banks, the bigger story is the continued growth of RIAs and broker-dealers.
Finsum: The recruitment environment for financial advisors has changed in 2023, but there is no change in the pace of growth for RIAs and broker-dealers.