Displaying items by tag: risk

Short-term dated options are continuing to grow in popularity which many analysts are warning could have unintended consequences for market stability according to a Reuters article by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed.

The fastest growing segment is zero days to expiry (ODTE) options, where traders are looking to profit from small, intraday market moves. Most options are based on indices, popular ETFs, or single stocks. As of March 2022, the daily notional value of all ODTE trades had exceeded $1 trillion.

The contracts are popular among buyers, because small moves in the underlying instrument can result in huge moves for its derivatives. For sellers, the appeal is that the options decay in value and the trade can be closed at the end of the day. 

However, many warn that large positions in these options could set off a ‘squeeze’ in the event of an unexpected, intraday move. This would cause option sellers to take large losses and potentially force hedging which could exacerbate the move in the underlying instruments. According to JPMorgan, it would be a similar dynamic to the ‘Volmageddon’ crash of 2018 when many inverse volatility products crashed due to a large spike in the VIX.

Finsum: A new threat to market stability is the rise of ODTE options which are becoming very popular with retail and institutional traders. However, they do have the potential to exacerbate large, intraday market moves. 

Fixed-income professionals at Franklin Templeton and its affiliates expect fixed-income investments to be a safe haven from equities volatility since the financial markets are showing signs of stress. Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, stated that “We believed something would break, even before this banking crisis happened. Now bonds provide safe haven protection for people’s portfolios because our timeline for recession is pulled forward because of this banking stress.” She recently spoke at a webinar on fixed-income mega-trends, entitled “Navigating Rates and Risk.” She was also joined by Jennifer Johnston, senior vice president and director of municipal bond research at Franklin Templeton, and Annabel Rudebeck, head of non-US corporate credit at Western Asset. Currently, yields are around 5% for corporates, which is considered attractive when compared to the longer-term history and government issuances. Johnston added that the tax-free attributes of municipal bonds provide an extra boost, while the muni market tends to be of higher quality than the corporate market. She stated, “We do see some opportunities, particularly out long, where munis are still relatively cheaper than where they’ve been in the past.” Chen also added that “This banking stress is very unique. It’s not driven by credit risk, but by mismanagement of duration.”

Finsum:With the financial markets showing stress, bond professionals at Franklin Templeton and its affiliates believe that fixed-income instruments provide a safe haven for the current stock volatility.

According to survey findings published by Natixis Investment Managers, fund selectors are enhancing their model portfolio offerings. Natixis surveyed 174 investment professionals in North America who are responsible for their firms’ top-of-the-house selection of funds into which $18.7 trillion in client assets are invested among private banks, wirehouses, registered investment advisors, independent wealth managers, and other advisory firms. The findings are part of a larger global survey of 441 professional fund selectors, which was conducted in December 2022. Based on the survey results, fund selectors are enhancing their offerings because model portfolios help to streamline the investment management process (86%), enable advisors to spend more time addressing client needs (82%), and help to ensure a consistent investment experience for clients (77%) while managing risk exposure for the firm (78%). They also agree that heightened market volatility is accelerating advisors’ use of model portfolios (65%), while models enhance the alpha potential for their clients (62%). The survey also found that 58% of fund selectors are finding a greater need for specialty models to complement the core models that advisors use for building client portfolios. The types of specialty models include models with enhanced customization tailored to high-net-worth clients (46%), models with a focus on alternatives (42%), income generation (43%), tax management (38%); sustainability (34%), and thematics (28%).

Finsum:Based on the results of a Natixis survey, fund selectors are enhancing their model portfolio offerings to help to streamline the investment management process, and enable advisors to spend more time addressing client needs, while managing risk exposure for the firm (78%).

According to a recent study by Lincoln Financial Group, market volatility is pushing Americans to refine their financial goals this year. The study revealed that 88% of Americans said they see room to improve their overall financial wellness, while 71% are likely to set financial goals in 2023. The respondents said that inflation and market volatility has made preparedness a top financial priority. For instance, 56% said protection from risk is most important to them, 39% said their greatest money goal is protecting their family, and 26% said guarding their income was a top priority. While data is showing that inflation is beginning to slow, there are still real concerns over whether the U.S. economy could enter a recession this year. This has investors nervous. David Berkowitz, Lincoln Financial Network president, said the following in a statement, "Our research reinforced the importance of financial solutions that can help consumers navigate through market cycles and protect their loved ones. People are not only concerned about having enough to pay their bills, but also saving for retirement and preparing for the unexpected.” For example, 40% of respondents said that financial protection meant being able to comfortably pay for basic living.

Finsum:A recent study by Lincoln Financial revealed that market volatility and inflation are pushing a majority of investors to set financial goals this year to navigate the market uncertainty.

While investors remain spooked by market volatility, Goldman Sachs believes direct indexing may benefit from the volatility. In its recent Market Know-How report, the firm wrote, “Direct indexing involves purchasing the underlying shares of an index, rather than owning an index fund. This investment strategy prioritizes tax-loss harvesting, which builds tax savings through capital losses while attempting to keep tracking error tight to the benchmark. Tax-loss harvesting works not only in down years but also in up years, historically, as individual constituents can still see intra-year declines.” The firm also listed the benefits of direct indexing beyond the tax-alpha achieved from harvesting losses. For instance, the firm lists benefits such as the ability to liquidate concentrated stock positions, reduce active risk in portfolios, and help offset significant taxable events such as the sale of a business or real estate. These can all be achieved through building a “war chest of capital losses.” In addition, Goldman also wrote that “owning individual securities instead of an index fund allows investors to achieve these potential benefits while expressing preferences, such as sector tilts.”

Finsum:In a recent report, Goldman Sachs stated that direct indexing may benefit from market volatility since the strategy prioritizes tax-loss harvesting, and historically, tax-loss harvesting works in both up and down markets.