The ongoing unwinding of yen carry trades could lead to more turbulence in the markets this month, warns Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management. As U.S. yields drop and the dollar weakens, the yen is expected to gain strength, potentially triggering sell-offs similar to those seen in August.
The practice of carry trading, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies like the yen to invest in higher-return assets, is facing disruption due to Japan’s recent interest rate increases. Lien suggests that if stock markets experience significant downturns, the yen's value could continue to rise, reversing its longstanding undervaluation.
This shift may impact asset prices globally in the coming years, with additional volatility likely as the U.S. economy faces growing pressures. September, often volatile for stocks, could see more dramatic market moves.
Finsum: This is one of the most important currency stories to watch in the coming weeks as rate cuts look to be very aggressive.