Displaying items by tag: rates

Wednesday, 10 July 2024 05:19

Rate Cuts Coming Switch To Active Funds

The conversation about rate cuts is heating up again as we move into 2024. Signals from the Fed hint at potential rate reductions, spurred by weaker job numbers and rising unemployment. With a lackluster June jobs report and unemployment up to 4.1%, a September rate cut looks increasingly likely. 

 

For investors, active ETFs offer a strategic response, providing flexibility and potential advantages over passive index funds. These ETFs can adapt to market shifts, benefiting from lower borrowing costs for smaller growth companies. 

 

As the market concentrates on a few mega-cap firms, active ETFs can diversify risk and capitalize on emerging opportunities. In light of these dynamics, active strategies present a potent option for investors adjusting to the evolving economic landscape.


Finsum: Active management could prove fruitful if interest rates fall and they can capitalize on, say, growth opportunities like tech. 

Published in Wealth Management
Tuesday, 18 June 2024 06:13

Newest Inflation Data Fueling Bull Rally

Declining inflation rates have ignited a bullish frenzy in the equity markets after a turbulent start to 2024. Financial experts highlight the pivotal role played by waning price pressures in propelling the recent stock market surge. 

 

Fueled by promising inflation trends and the burgeoning artificial intelligence sector, analysts have revised their year-end targets upwards for major stock indices like the S&P 500. Consecutive record highs across key benchmarks reflect investors' optimism, bolstered by lower-than-anticipated inflation readings. 

 

Economists interpret the recent data as a harbinger of potential interest rate cuts, marking significant progress towards the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. While the Fed projects a solitary rate reduction in 2024, market sentiment leans towards two cuts. 


Finsum: The key will be how many cuts, if rates fall the cap to the market is very high.

Published in Wealth Management
Thursday, 13 June 2024 17:59

A New Trend in Private REITs

While commercial properties values have struggled mightily this year KKR is trying to instill shareholder confidence in its $1.2 billion private real estate investment trust. KREST’s struggles are not in isolation as many REITS have faced a two-year downturn due to rising interest rates and decreased investor capital. 

 

To counteract this, KKR announced a shareholder priority plan involving the potential cancellation of up to 7.7 million KREST shares if the net asset value per share drops below $27 by June 2027. This move would increase per-share value by reducing the number of outstanding shares. Additionally, KKR affiliates will inject $50 million of new capital into KREST, demonstrating their commitment to the trust and the real estate market.

 

 KKR's strategy mirrors actions taken by Blackstone last year, aiming to protect non-KKR shareholders from short-term declines while allowing them to benefit from potential real estate recoveries.


Finsum: While commercial real estate has most likely bottomed out, its still tough to say if it will ever recover or if this is the new normal. 

Published in Eq: Real Estate
Saturday, 08 June 2024 12:08

Worries of a Crisis in Commercial Real Estate

There are increasing concerns that a crisis is brewing in commercial real estate (CRE), as over the next couple of years, $2 trillion in CRE loans will need to be refinanced. Previously, there were hopes that macro conditions would soften, leading to lower rates and a more favorable lending environment. Instead, inflation has proven to be more resilient than expected, and expectations of Fed dovishness have been dialed back.

In addition to high rates, major challenges include decreasing demand for offices and rising vacancies, a stricter lending environment, and balance sheet woes at regional banks, which traditionally account for a large share of CRE lending. However, there is significant variance within the CRE market. Areas like data centers, hotels, and industrial buildings continue to show strength, while retail and multifamily exhibit more mixed performance.

If conditions worsen, there is a risk of spillover effects on the broader economy, including decreased lending activity due to losses at banks, lower tax revenue for local governments due to more vacancies and lower property values, and subsequent declines in hiring. However, the consensus continues to be that there won’t be a full-blown crisis as the sector is sufficiently diversified and continues to have strong credit performance despite adverse conditions.


Finsum: Investors should pay attention to the CRE market given the refinancing cliff and challenges posed by higher rates and a stricter lending environment. 

Published in Alternatives

According to Lindsay Rosner, the managing director of multi-sector fixed income investments at Goldman Sachs, fixed income is presenting investors with an attractive opportunity to lock in high yields without compromising on quality. There are some challenges given divergences in central bank policy around the world and increasing uncertainty about the timing and direction of the Fed’s next move. Overall, the firm believes that the status quo of ‘higher for longer’ is likely to prevail.

A major factor is inflation, and the economy proving to be more resilient than expected. As a result, the market is now expecting two quarter-point rate cuts before the end of the year, compared to expectations of 150 basis points in cuts entering the year. The next Fed decision is on July 29. Prior to that meeting, there will be considerable amounts of inflation and labor market data, which could impact its thinking, although the current expectation is for it to hold rates steady.

With rates at these levels, there is increased risk that consumer spending is affected or that a higher cost of capital begins to impact corporate profitability and hiring. This risk increases the attractiveness of fixed income, especially as many investors are looking to rebalance given strong equity performance. Rosner sees opportunity in higher-quality areas such as investment-grade corporate bonds and structured products with AAA or AA ratings, especially given an impressive carry differential over Treasuries.


Finsum: Goldman Sachs sees opportunity in higher-quality segments of the fixed-income market. It believes investors should lock in yields at these levels, given the risk that high rates will eventually sour the economic outlook. 

Published in Bonds: Total Market
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