In an article for ETF.com by Michelle Lodge, she examines whether success in portfolio management is a matter of skill or luck. According to survey results from S&P Dow Jones, there is little connection between good choices made by a manager and portfolio performance. 

According to Craig Lazarra, the Director of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones, “Our report for year-end 2022 finds little evidence of persistent active management success, despite considering a variety of metrics and lookback periods.” 

According to the research, investors are better off with low-cost, diversified ETFs. Additionally, success in terms of picking stocks and ETFs is not repeatable. Additionally even in a poor year for passive funds, 51% of active managers still underperformed their benchmarks in 2022. 

Another piece of evidence cited is that managers who outperformed in the first half of the last decade, failed to outperform in the second-half of the decade. The same dynamic appears with active fixed income managers with no indication that success in one year is likely to repeat in subsequent years. 

Finsum: Research shows that active fixed income and equity outperformance is unlikely to repeat in following years.