(New York)

Even if you aren’t thinking about it yet, the president is. In an interview yesterday, President Trump said that the stock market would crash if he were impeached. No one can be sure, but history suggests it would have little impact on the market. In the two previous cases in recent memory—Nixon and Clinton—the market behaved differently, falling sharply in the 12 months prior to Nixon’s impeachment, and rising before Clinton’s. JP Morgan’s best guess is that an impeachment wouldn’t be enough to derail the markets and economy itself.

FINSUM: Another interesting argument is that Trump wouldn’t ever be impeached until the market headed south, as that has happened in both of the previous instances (there was a brief but steep correction before Clinton’s impeachment). Nonetheless, we really don’t think Trump will be impeached.

(New York)

Morgan Stanley disclosed this week that it has upped its holdings in two small stocks to above 5%. While one can get a lot of info (however biased) from equity research divisions, there is nothing like seeing what banks are actually buying themselves. In this case, the two stocks are Electronics for Imaging, and Turtle Beach. The former is a digital imaging firm whose shares have been rising this year, and the latter is a gaming headset maker who shares have risen 15x this year, but is still only worth $392m.

FINSUM: Gaming headsets seem like a good growth area at the moment, but are probably outside the skillset of most investors to judge.

(New York)

While some New Yorkers prepaid their property taxes last year in an effort to offset the decline of SALT deductions this year, others weren’t so proactive. Now that Washington has blocked states’ ability to work a loophole around classifying taxes as charitable giving, residents of high tax states may have a small window of opportunity—just 4 days—to avoid full taxes. The new regulations will take effect on August 27th, which means residents have until then to donate to the tax-charity funds which have been established.

FINSUM: Such last minute payments could be challenged after the fact, but considering the effective date of the new regulations, they seem like they would go through.

(San Francisco)

Central bankers meeting at their annual gathering in Jackson Hole this week have a topic at the front of their minds—is rising corporate power hurting investment, wage growth, and productivity? Looking at the figures, the picture is mixed, but that is beside the point says the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ argues that investors should buy the monopolies the central bankers are worried about, because if the bankers are right, that will mean rising returns to capital. In other words, investors will be getting more and more of the rewards.

FINSUM: Market share in most of the US’ business sectors have been consolidating for years, and there are less and less publicly traded stocks as companies swallow each other. Corporate power is rising. However, for investors, this is a simple matter as more power will likely mean better payouts and returns.

(Rio de Janeiro)

The outlook for emerging markets appears to be dimming. While Turkey’s troubles are well-know, widespread weakness in EM currencies is rattling the markets. EM equities are flirting with a bear market and metals prices have dropped sharply, with the latter hurting EM economies in particular. The worries over EM stocks are now seeping into Eurozone banks, where fears for lending losses are rising. One research analyst sums it up this way, saying “The combination of stronger currencies, lower commodity prices, and potentially weaker bank credit creation is a disinflationary headwind for developed markets in the near term”.

FINSUM: There are many factors which seem to be dragging emerging market economies downward, and that may be a bad sign for the global economy as a whole.