(New York)

Name the two main factors which drove this decade-long bull market. Ours would be the Fed’s easy policy, and huge levels of corporate buybacks. Well, that second one, which has inarguably been at least a core pillar of the bull run, is ending. Companies are pulling away from share buybacks, lessening one of the big price drivers for the market. Buybacks have slipped alongside the market’s trouble, as companies are no longer stepping in to buy shares, sending buybacks to their lowest level in 18 months.

FINSUM: Do you remember the earnings recession that occurred for a few years during this bull market? Buybacks are what kept prices afloat.

(Washington)

President Trump threw out an idea for a tax cut this week, then immediately backtracked by calling it unnecessary. The idea, however, appears sound. Trump proposed a payroll tax cut that would primarily help middle and lower class workers (in addition to a capital gains tax cut via indexing to inflation). That would make a lot of sense right now, as it would increase the spending power of the masses, increasing consumption and inflation, and lowering un-utilized manufacturing capacity.

FINSUM: We really like this idea of a payroll tax cut because it would help reverse some of the adverse affects of the wealth inequality that has built up since the Crisis. The more capital is concentrated in a small pool the less of it gets spent (i.e. a single person can only spend so much), which slows the economy. If you increase the spending power of the majority of Americans a lot more will get spent, boosting the economy.

(New York)

Is it a huge deal or not? No one seems to be able to decide. The issue at hand is that the new SEC Best Interest rule explicitly requires brokers to consider costs when recommending products to clients. That is potentially a very big change. However, some say brokers have already been doing this as part of suitability rules, so it may not change practices much. It is important to note that brokers do not need to recommend the cheapest product to clients, but they must take cost into consideration.

FINSUM: Considered in a vacuum, taking cost into consideration has long been a no-brainer. The bigger question is how the SEC decides to enforce this standard. Hindsight will always be 20-20 in an investigation and this could be a big disadvantage to brokers.

(San Francisco)

A few weeks ago there was a great deal of press, and some investor anxiety, about simultaneous anti-trust probes being launched from the FTC and DOJ into America’s biggest tech companies. Before those efforts seem to have even gotten off the ground, the investigation seems to be backtracking. The head of the FTC said this week that the integration of Facebook and Instagram and WhatsApp will likely stymie any effort to break up the social media giant. The TFC chief also acknowledged it would be hard to get the courts to reverse a merger that the FTC itself had already approved, which is the case with Facebook and its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp.

FINSUM: This seems like a pretty notable surrender after only a few weeks of work. We wonder why the FTC is changing its tone so strongly?

(New York)

We guarantee that we have a great recession signal in hand that you have not been paying attention to: RV sales. Yes, you read that right, RV (recreation vehicle) sales. Elkhart, Indiana is the epicenter of motorhome production, and their product has proven to be a reliable recession indicator. “The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are”, says one economics professor at Ball State University. The big worry is that shipments of RVs are down 20% this year, a big drop.

FINSUM: This seems like a classic consumer discretionary spending leading indicator. And it is not looking good right now.